Greenland Independence Ignited by Trump... Impact on March General Election [TrumpXGreenland]

①Greenland to Hold Early General Election on March 11
Ruling Party Supporting Independence Likely to Extend Its Term
Second Largest Party, Once Cautious, Now Speaks with One Voice
Possible Separation from Denmark as an Autonomous Territory

Editor's NoteGreenland, a frozen land with a population of about 56,000, is rapidly emerging as a new arena for power competition. As climate change melts the glaciers covering Greenland, the Arctic sea routes have opened, and the extraction of underground resources buried nearby has become possible, increasing both military and economic value. When U.S. President Donald Trump openly revealed his territorial expansion ambitions to acquire Danish Greenland, Denmark responded by pledging to invest 3 trillion won in Arctic defense spending. The Greenlanders' desire for independence is more heightened than ever. Ahead of the early general election in March, we examine Greenland's political situation and the intentions of the world powers surrounding it.

Due to U.S. President Donald Trump's revealed territorial expansion ambitions, the possibility of the current ruling party's re-election in Greenland's early general election scheduled for March has increased. Four years ago, Greenland residents supported the progressive party advocating Greenland's independence, Inuit Ataqatigiit (IA). IA is also a party that focuses more on the environment than on Greenland's development. The growing desire for independence, fueled continuously since President Trump's claim to 'purchase Greenland,' is expected to lead to the extension of the current administration.

◆"An Unprecedented Time in History" Election Moved Up by One Month

Danish Greenland will hold a general election on the 11th of next month, one month earlier than the originally scheduled April 6. This is interpreted as an effort to strengthen residents' unity and prepare independent countermeasures against President Donald Trump's territorial pressure.

M?te Egede, Greenland's autonomous prime minister, stated on his social media, "This is an unprecedented time in our country's history," and added, "Now is not the time for internal division but for cooperation and unity in our country." He further emphasized, "I am ready to work for you again and lead our country." The proposal was passed unanimously in the Greenlandic parliament.

Currently, Greenland's parliament (with a total of 31 members) has the first party IA holding 12 seats, having won the 2021 election. At that time, Siumut, which was allocated 10 seats, and IA formed a coalition government. Other minor parties hold seats as follows: Naleraq 4 seats, Demokraterne 3 seats, and Atassut 2 seats. Greenland elects its parliament members every four years through a proportional representation system.

The decision for this early general election reflects the growing desire for independence within Greenland. According to several recent local opinion polls, the proportion of Greenland residents supporting independence reaches 80-90%. President Trump's excessive territorial obsession is evaluated to have rather strengthened the residents' unity regarding independence. His ambitions have ironically become a catalyst for independence.

Four years ago, Greenland also held an early general election. At that time, the biggest issue was the pros and cons of the rare earth mining industry. Concerns about environmental destruction arose over the southern Greenland mining development project, causing divisions even within the ruling party, and the coalition government collapsed, leading to an early election. IA opposed the development of rare earths, including uranium, aligning with residents' opinions and won the election. According to opinion polls at the time, 60% of Greenland residents opposed mining development.

◆High Possibility of Ruling Party Supporting Independence Extending Its Term

In the past, Greenland's mainstream opinion was that 'independence should be cautious.' Greenland's main industries are fishing and tourism, and it receives 3.9 billion Danish kroner (about 540 million USD), two-thirds of Greenland's government budget, annually from Denmark. Under these circumstances, premature independence was considered potentially precarious. Siumut, the ruling party from 2009 to 2021, argued that independence should be pursued only after economic stability and institutional preparations were sufficiently established. Siumut adopted a pragmatic approach to strengthen the foundation for self-reliance through economic development and attracting foreign capital.

However, the atmosphere changed after IA's victory in the 2021 election. Moreover, Trump's territorial ambitions revealed since the end of last year led to the general election originally scheduled for April being moved up by one month. Although IA and Siumut have somewhat different positions regarding resource development and independence, they currently maintain similar political perspectives.

Frank Sejersen, associate professor of Greenland and Arctic studies at the University of Copenhagen, said in an interview, "Despite political differences, IA and Siumut maintain strong political and popular momentum for independence and speak with one voice on the need to strengthen the possibility of independence." The two parties form a coalition government together.

After the early general election in March, the possibility that Danish Greenland will be fully integrated into Denmark proper is also low. This is because Greenland's will for independence has become stronger than before. This will was clearly reflected in the New Year's address by Greenland's autonomous prime minister M?te Egede. Egede emphasized, "Looking at history and the current situation, we have not succeeded in achieving fully equal cooperation with Denmark," and added, "Like other countries in the world, we must strive to remove the obstacles to cooperation, which can be called the shackles of so-called colonialism, and move forward."

Although Greenland receives budget support from Denmark, emotionally, the relationship between the two countries continues to drift apart. Despite being tied as one country for a long time, they have not integrated well. Recently, controversy arose when it was revealed that the Danish government had implemented illegal birth control policies targeting Greenland residents in the past. In the 1960s and 1970s, the Danish government inserted intrauterine devices (IUDs) into about 4,500 Greenlandic women of childbearing age, including girls as young as 13, to curb Greenland's population growth. As the issue was continuously raised, Denmark and Greenland governments started a joint investigation in 2022 and are preparing procedures for compensation.