If Ground Troops Are Deployed, Territorial Control and Regime Change May Follow
Contradicts the "Nuclear Deterrence" Objective of Iran Airstrikes
Hints at the Possibility of a Mid- to Long-Term War with Iran
"It Will Take 4-5 Weeks... Could
On March 2 (local time), President Donald Trump of the United States suggested that he does not rule out the possibility of deploying ground troops to Iran. The deployment of ground forces would signal a willingness to engage in a full-scale war with Iran, meaning that the nature and duration of the conflict could differ from previous objectives.
In an interview with the New York Post that day, President Trump commented on the possibility of sending ground troops, stating, "Other presidents have said, 'There will be no ground troops,' but I am not hesitant about deploying them." He added, "I would say (ground troops) 'probably won't be needed,' or, 'if necessary, we can send them.'"
Nature of the War Would Change with Ground Operations...Contradicts the 'Nuclear Deterrence' Objective
President Trump's remarks are interpreted as revealing his willingness to send ground troops to Iran if necessary. Deploying ground troops would mean that the conflict with Iran could escalate into a full-scale war. This would not only involve destroying Iran's key nuclear facilities, but also entail occupying Iranian territory and even considering regime change.
These statements contradict the military objectives toward Iran that President Trump has previously articulated. In the interview, he explained that the reason for military action against Iran was due to intelligence reports indicating that Iran had resumed its nuclear development project.
President Trump emphasized, "We completely destroyed those facilities because Iran tried to build nuclear weapons," and added, "However, we discovered that they were working to make nuclear weapons by enriching uranium in a completely different location. So, it was time to make a decision."
Earlier, Joseph Rogers, Deputy Director of the Nuclear Issues Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a US think tank, analyzed that "most of Iran's high-value nuclear facilities were destroyed by US airstrikes in June of last year."
In reality, deploying ground troops would impose a significant burden on the Trump administration as well. The United States has previously sent ground forces to the Middle East, including Iraq and Afghanistan, but has never achieved full success.
"Iran Offensive to Last 4 to 5 Weeks"...Possibility of a Medium- to Long-Term War Also Suggested
President Trump also hinted that the war with Iran could become a medium- to long-term conflict. At a Medal of Honor ceremony at the White House that day, he said regarding the duration of the war with Iran, "It doesn't matter how long it takes," and "I expected it would take 4 to 5 weeks, but we are capable of lasting much longer."
On the same day, in an interview with CNN, President Trump stated, "We haven't even started to attack Iran hard yet," adding, "The big wave hasn't happened yet." This is interpreted as implying the possibility of additional large-scale US military strikes against Iran.
This differs from his earlier interview. In the New York Post interview, when asked how long the war would last, President Trump said, "I don't want the war to drag on for too long," and "I always thought it would be over in about four weeks. We are moving a bit ahead of schedule (progressing quickly)."
This is distinct from remarks made the same day by US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, who, at a joint press conference with Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Kane, stated, "Iran is not Iraq," and "This is not an endless war like Iraq."
President Trump appears to be conveying to the American people that, unlike previous administrations, he does not intend to engage in a years-long war of attrition in the Middle East, while also signaling to Iran that he will not withdraw before achieving his objectives.
Uncertain Direction Regarding Iran's Political System?
President Trump also showed contradictory positions regarding Iran's political system. In an interview with the New York Times (NYT) on March 1, he mentioned the Venezuela model, saying, "What we did in Venezuela is a perfect scenario."
In January, the Trump administration abruptly arrested Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and recognized the power structure of Vice President Delcy Rodriguez. This method removes the top leader hostile to the United States while maintaining the existing political system.
If the Iranian leadership is maintained without regime overthrow, it could prevent a sudden collapse of the system and reduce chaos in the Middle East. In this case, the US could also reduce the burden of ground troop deployment or a prolonged war.
However, in the NYT interview, President Trump stated, "Iranian military leaders, including hardline Revolutionary Guards officers, must hand over weapons to the Iranian people." This means replacing the Revolutionary Guard, which is at the core of the theocratic regime, and changing the political system-contradicting his previous statements.
When asked who should lead Iran, President Trump said, "There are three very good options, but I will not reveal who they are now."
President Trump raising both the Venezuela model and the idea of transferring power to the Iranian people suggests that the direction of Iran's future political system has not yet been determined.
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