Jung Seongjang: "A Power Struggle Between Kim Yo-jong and Kim Juae Is Unlikely" [Current Affairs Show]

"Kim Juae Is Already Being Treated as the No. 2 Figure"
"Kim Yo-jong Is at the Forefront of Promoting Kim Juae"
"Kim Juae Could Turn Out to Be More Fearsome Than Kim Jong-un"

■ Broadcast: The Asia Business Daily "So Jongseop's Current Affairs Show" (Mon-Fri, 4 p.m. to 5 p.m.)

■ Host: Political Specialist So Jongseop ■ Producer: PD Park Sumin
■ Guest: Jung Seongjang, Deputy Director of the Sejong Institute (February 20)

※ When quoting this article, please make sure to credit "So Jongseop's Current Affairs Show".

So Jongseop: Hello, everyone. This is So Jongseop's Current Affairs Show. The 9th Congress of the Workers' Party of Korea opened on the 19th. Starting with speculation that there may be some measures related to the hereditary succession of Kim Jong-un's daughter Kim Juae at the 9th Party Congress, there are even claims that, if the succession is formalized, a power struggle between Kim Yo-jong and Kim Juae will erupt. We will sort out how we should view North Korea's recent moves together with Jung Seongjang, Deputy Director of the Sejong Institute. Deputy Director Jung, welcome.

Jung Seongjang: Yes, hello.

So Jongseop: The 9th Congress of the Workers' Party has opened. What are the key points to watch?

Jung Seongjang: A main point of interest is what kind of new line North Korea will announce through this Party Congress. When North Korea held the 8th Party Congress in 2021, it presented goals in the defense sector, such as the development of hypersonic missiles and nuclear-powered submarines, and it actually achieved a considerable portion of them. It will still take time to go as far as building a nuclear-powered submarine, but judging from what it showed last year, we can see that it is making progress at an unexpectedly rapid pace. Assessments of its hypersonic missiles differ among experts, but they have shown a fairly fast pace of advancement, and more recently, North Korea showcased a missile presumed to be a multiple-warhead ICBM on the 80th anniversary of the founding of the Workers' Party last year.

This time as well, attention is focused on whether it will present some new type of conventional weapon or something else that we have not anticipated. And another major point of interest is whether Kim Jong-un's eldest daughter Kim Juae will, on the occasion of this 9th Party Congress, be granted the status of successor.

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So Jongseop: Some are saying that the fourth-generation hereditary succession through Kim Jong-un's eldest daughter Kim Juae has entered its final stage. How do you see it?

Jung Seongjang: I think it is fortunate that the National Intelligence Service, although somewhat belatedly, has acknowledged this. Kim Juae first appeared in public in November 2022. At that time, the National Intelligence Service and the Ministry of Unification wrongly interpreted it, saying things like, "It has nothing to do with the succession issue. It has symbolic meaning in guaranteeing the safety of future generations and is meant to show a family-oriented image." But when Kim Juae appeared again the following month, the expression "most respected" was used. I was startled when I heard that expression. This is because in North Korean publications, the expression "most respected" had until then been used for whom? It was used for Kim Il-sung, Kim Jong-il, Kim Jong-un, and Kim Il-sung's wife Kim Jong-suk, four people in total. Using it for Kim Juae was part of the process of putting her forward as the successor and revealed Kim Jong-un's intention to pass down his power.

Kim Jong-un emerged as successor through the 3rd Party Conference in 2010. Most experts said at the time that there was little chance Kim Jong-un, born in 1984 and only 26 years old, could become the successor, and that even if the Party Conference were held, his name would likely not be mentioned. But contrary to those expectations, Kim Jong-un received the title of general at the young age of 26. North Korea is not a country where common sense as we understand it applies. If we try to view North Korea through our own common sense, our predictions are bound to fail. North Korea is in fact a monarchy.

There have been many times when I was startled while reading original North Korean materials. For example, Kim Jong-il told cadres the following. Cadres refer to the supreme leader as the "Suryong," or supreme leader. He publicly said that they should become loyal retainers and filial children who devote absolute loyalty to the Suryong. This appeared in the Rodong Sinmun. The Rodong Sinmun is the Party's official newspaper, and if the top leadership cadres are "loyal retainers," then the supreme leader is the king. And if the cadres are "filial children," then the supreme leader is the parent. This logic is almost the same as that of the Joseon Dynasty in our past. That kind of logic still applies in today's North Korea. Outwardly, it is wrapped in the packaging of a republic with elections, but North Korean elections are merely a formality. In substance, it is a monarchical state and a class-based society. Ultimately, the Paektu bloodline, in our terminology, means the royal family.

So it is only natural that the successor should come from within the Paektu bloodline, and there is a succession theory that justifies the transfer of power in North Korea. According to that theory, the successor to the Suryong must come from the next generation of the Suryong. There is no statement that a daughter cannot become the successor. In January and February of last year, Kim Il-sung University Journal and major Party organs and other outlets almost simultaneously emphasized this succession theory. I find it hard to see that as a mere coincidence.

Jeong Seongjang, Deputy Director at the Sejong Institute, said on the 20th during So Jongseop's Current Affairs Show that Kim Juae is already being treated as second-in-command.

So Jongseop: You are saying that the succession system centered on Kim Juae has already progressed quite far. What official title might Kim Juae receive?

Jung Seongjang: In early January this year, through "Sejong Focus," I presented three scenarios. The first scenario is that Kim Juae continues her successor training as she is now, without any official position. The second is that she is elected to the post of First Secretary of the Party Central Committee, which was created at the 8th Party Congress in 2021. The third is that she is elected vice chairman of the Party Central Military Commission, as Kim Jong-un was in 2010. The second scenario is the most likely.

So Jongseop: What kind of person is Kim Juae? She was born in 2013, so she is now 13 years old.

Jung Seongjang: The information available is limited. I attended an international conference held in Istanbul in the summer of 2024. There, by coincidence, I was able to meet a professor from Columbia University in the United States who had spent about three days with Dennis Rodman at Kim Jong-un's villa in Wonsan. He said that he asked Kim Jong-un three times what his child's name was. And all three times, Kim Jong-un answered that it was Juae. This professor was a linguistic genius who spoke Korean well, Chinese well, and other languages too. So if this professor heard "Juae," we can be sure that is correct.

And we should pay attention to who was present in Wonsan at that time. There were Kim Jong-un, his wife Ri Sol-ju, their daughter Kim Juae, Kim Jong-un's older brother Kim Jong-chol, Kim Jong-un's younger sister Kim Yo-jong, and Kim Yo-jong's husband. They stayed there for three days. If Kim Jong-un had a son, would it be possible that he left only his son behind in Pyongyang while the whole family went to Wonsan for three days? That is unthinkable. It means Kim Jong-un does not have a son.

So Jongseop: In recent coverage in the Rodong Sinmun, Korean Central Television, and other media, have there been any notable changes regarding Kim Juae compared with the past?

Jung Seongjang: The photo of Kim Juae that shocked our government the most was the one in which Kim Juae appeared larger and more prominently than Kim Jong-un. The Ministry of Unification was startled by that, and from that point on, it began to acknowledge the possibility that Kim Juae was undergoing successor training. At the beginning of this year, a particularly shocking photo was released. When Kim Jong-un visited the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun with Kim Juae, he had her stand in the central position where he himself should have stood. In front of the bodies of Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il, he effectively held a kind of inauguration ceremony, signaling that he would put Kim Juae forward as his successor.

So Jongseop: Kim Jong-un was born in 1984, so he is about 43 or 42 years old in Korean age. He is relatively young, so how should we understand the background of him already establishing a succession system?

Jung Seongjang: It shows just how strong North Korean leaders' will to pass down power is. From Kim Jong-un's eighth birthday onward, Kim Jong-il told his close aides that "my successor will be Jong-un."

So Jongseop: In recent news about Kim Juae, some commentators say that she will be even more ruthless than Kim Jong-un, that she will become an even more fearsome figure than her frightening father. How do you view such assessments?

Korean Central Television reported on the 6th that Kim Jong Un, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission of North Korea, visited the construction site of the Haeoe gunsa jakjeon jeontu wihun ginyeomgwan on January 5 and took part in a tree-planting ceremony with his wife Ri Sol Ju, daughter Ju Ae, and party and government leaders. Yonhap News Agency

Jung Seongjang: That is possible. For example, we often see statements issued by Kim Jong-un's younger sister Kim Yo-jong. How viciously does Kim Yo-jong hurl verbal attacks? People say that barking dogs do not bite, but in any case, she uses far harsher invective and coarse language than Kim Jong-un. She really does have that side to her.

There is a little-known story that, when they were young, Kim Jong-un and his friends would sometimes avoid Kim Yo-jong when she came to join them while they were playing. When she is compliant, she is compliant, but she also has a temper, and as we see, once she "blows her lid," she becomes impossible to handle, to the point that even Kim Jong-un would sometimes avoid her. We are constantly seeing such aspects. If Kim Juae has inherited that blood, she could be similar. And if you look at Kim Juae, she has been confident since she was young. When she shakes hands with military officers and so on, one might expect her to be shy because of her age, but she is not at all. So we have to see Kim Juae as no ordinary person.

So Jongseop: There have been reports that if Kim Juae becomes the successor, there is a possibility of a power struggle with Kim Yo-jong. What is your view, Deputy Director?

Jung Seongjang: I see that possibility as slim. The reason is that since Kim Juae first appeared in public in November 2022, who has played the most important role in boosting her image? It is Kim Yo-jong. When the Rodong Sinmun released photos early this year of Kim Juae visiting the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun, the body in charge of deciding which photos to release and shaping Kim Juae's image was the Propaganda and Agitation Department of the Party Central Committee, where Kim Yo-jong works. The Propaganda and Agitation Department controls all media outlets in North Korea, including the Rodong Sinmun and broadcasting. So Kim Yo-jong is the number one contributor to the campaign to elevate Kim Juae, and the fact that she works in a propaganda department rather than an organization-related department shows that she has no desire for power.

So Jongseop: You are saying that Kim Yo-jong will strictly follow her brother's wishes and faithfully play the role of consolidating the succession structure and safeguarding the security of the Paektu bloodline, rather than displaying any desire for power or engaging in a power struggle.

Jung Seongjang: Because we watch a lot of historical dramas, we have made similar mistakes in the past. Kim Jong-il died in December 2011. At the time, many experts and media outlets claimed that Kim Jong-un's uncle Jang Song-thaek would act as regent, and that a military collective leadership system with Jang Song-thaek as regent would be launched. I said such a thing would never happen, and less than two years later, Jang Song-thaek was executed.

North Korea is a status-based society, and of course, if Kim Jong-un were suddenly to collapse, Kim Yo-jong could play an important role for a while. However, given that Kim Jong-un is trying to put Kim Juae forward as his successor, the likelihood that Kim Yo-jong will take that position does not appear high. The relationship between Kim Jong-un and Kim Yo-jong is somewhat special. When Kim Jong-un studied in Switzerland, he lived together with Kim Yo-jong. They played together, experienced Western society together, and they also lost their mother early. So we can see their relationship as one in which they must stick together closely. Kim Jong-un even entrusted his schedule management to Kim Yo-jong. That shows how much he trusts her. If Kim Yo-jong had, or appeared to have, a desire for power, he would instead distance himself from her.

So Jongseop: We will have to leave it there. Thank you for your many valuable insights today.

Jung Seongjang: Thank you.