Park Wonseok: "Jeon Hangil Is Far More Dangerous Than Lee Seokki" [Current Affairs Show]

"Jeong Cheongrae likely to push merger through, to be approved before local elections"
"If it falls through, the Cho Kuk Innovation Party will be hit the hardest"
"President Lee’s real estate posts on social media are a sure?win strategy for the Seoul mayoral race"
"Appointing Im Sunsook as audit commissioner is highly inappropriate"

■ Program: The Asia Business Daily's 'So Jongseop's Current Affairs Show' (Mon-Fri, 4-5 p.m.)

■ Host: Political Specialist So Jongseop ■ Director: Producer Park Sumin

■ Guest: Former National Assembly member Park Wonseok (February 4)

※ When quoting any part of this article, please make sure to credit 'So Jongseop's Current Affairs Show'.

So Jongseop: Hello, everyone. This is So Jongseop's Current Affairs Show. Today, we will go over various issues together with former lawmaker Park Wonseok.

Park Wonseok: Yes, hello.

So Jongseop: How did you hear today’s negotiation bloc speech by party leader Jang Donghyuk? What was your impression?

Park Wonseok: What stood out the most was his strong criticism of the Lee Jaemyung administration’s policies. That really caught my eye. He also signaled things like change and reform, and in that context he talked about visions related to labor and young people. But to be frank, that did not really resonate or stand out much. So rather, I think the main intention and content of today’s speech was his point?by?point criticism in the first half, starting from the Lee Jaemyung administration’s foreign and security policy, then economic policy, prosecutorial reform, and real estate policy. In the end, even though Jang Donghyuk went as far as a hunger strike and managed to get former leader Han Donghoon expelled, has he really changed the mood of the party? From that perspective, I think they are still just treading water.

There were a lot of incidents during the process of expelling former leader Han Donghoon. Because the very first button was fastened wrong, it seems they cannot clean things up even at the end. Jang Donghyuk said that he would get to the bottom of it even through an investigation and take responsibility for the outcome, but even if you think about it for a moment, will that investigation really go anywhere? From the police’s standpoint, what do they gain by actively investigating this? It is just an in?house fight that broke out inside a political party, and because they cannot resolve it among themselves, they are pushing it onto the investigative authorities. So there is no real motivation for an aggressive investigation, and if the party heads into the local elections in this state of being split into pieces, the result could end up being even more disastrous than in 2018.

Former lawmaker Park Wonseok appeared on The Asia Business Daily's "So Jongsup's Current Affairs Show" on February 4.

So Jongseop: You are saying they will lose everywhere except Daegu and North Gyeongsang?

Park Wonseok: What really stood out to me was that Seoul Mayor Oh Sehoon has shifted to a hard?line stance. In fact, up to now he had positioned himself as someone who urged both sides to seek an amicable political solution. When Jang Donghyuk talked about reform at the beginning of the year, Mayor Oh even expressed a welcoming stance. I think his sudden change has to do partly with his disappointment over how far Jang has gone, but also with the fact that the Seoul mayoral race is not easy. Since late last year, not just the Democratic Party of Korea but the government itself has been relentlessly attacking the Seoul Metropolitan Government and Mayor Oh, and on top of that they have been elevating District Mayor Jung Wonoh. Combined together, recent opinion polls have been very tough for him. Party approval ratings differ by poll, but if you look at Gallup Korea or NBS, they are almost cut in half. In that situation, no matter how strong Mayor Oh’s personal political skills may be, it is not enough. Sensing the crisis, I think he has reached the judgment that it would be better to fight this Seoul mayoral election under his own name, Oh Sehoon, because running under the party’s name makes little difference. From what Jang Donghyuk has said so far, there is no clear plan for damage control. So I do not see any way for these internal conflicts and divisions in the party to be resolved.

So Jongseop: Isn’t there also a possibility that voices will grow louder calling for a new leadership structure to replace the Jang Donghyuk system itself?

Park Wonseok: That spark is lying dormant, but for it to surface, lawmakers have to move. Most of the lawmakers are from the Yeongnam region, and because this is not their own election, they seem to be watching and waiting for now. If something like this were happening ahead of a general election, do you think lawmakers would sit still? In the past, when conservative parties had pro?Lee Myungbak and pro?Park Geunhye factions fighting over internal power, even then there was at least a certain ethos: if you lost, you stepped back and helped; if you won, you embraced the others. Now that is gone. The attitude is just “I have to survive first.” I think this shows how much the internal culture of conservative parties has degenerated.

So Jongseop: Do you see any chance for a turnaround?

Jang Donghyuk, leader of the People Power Party, is speaking at a Supreme Council meeting held at the National Assembly on the 5th. Photo by Kim Hyunmin

Park Wonseok: As long as the Jang Donghyuk leadership remains in place, there is no such chance. The question is whether there is any real possibility of replacing his leadership. Even if there is an awareness of the problem, I do not see actions emerging that could actually change it. So I think they will just keep going as they are.

So Jongseop: People like Goh Sunguk and Jeon Hangil, YouTubers on the outer circle around Jang Donghyuk, also seem to wield considerable influence.

Park Wonseok: Isn’t that ultimately Jang Donghyuk’s own doing? In the end, during the last party convention, he took their hand and became party leader. Jeon Hangil says it quite bluntly: “We made you.” And because of that, he openly says that if Jang’s direction diverges from what they want, they will cut him off. That was the first thing he said upon returning to Korea. But on martial law and insurrection and impeachment, Jang made remarks and showed a perception that are far removed from what the majority of the public thinks. He took the hand of the “Yoon Again” faction at the last party convention and became party leader, and even now he cannot clearly declare a break with President Yoon. So whatever he may claim, in politics what matters is how observers perceive you, and in that perception, Jang is one and the same with the Yoon Again faction. The question is whether he can really sever that tie. I do not think he can; I see it as virtually impossible.

So Jongseop: In Jeon Hangil’s case, there have been around eight criminal complaints filed against him, and the police have summoned him for questioning on the 12th. Do you think his moves could become a variable?

Park Wonseok: If I had to characterize Jeon Hangil, I would say he is simply a YouTube businessman, a commercial operator. I see a large part of his motivation as commercial, although of course there are political motives as well, and probably a fair amount of personal ambition. The charge he currently faces is incitement to insurrection. If that charge is upheld, I do not see how he could avoid being taken into custody. And frankly, on a personal level, I think he should be detained. For someone like him, remember that former lawmaker Lee Seokki served more than nine years in prison for incitement to insurrection within the Unified Progressive Party. If you look objectively at what Lee actually did, he gathered his own followers and made arguments that, in many ways, ran counter to common sense. For that he was imprisoned for nine years. So in terms of the danger their actions pose, who is more dangerous: Lee Seokki or Jeon Hangil? I think Jeon Hangil is far more dangerous.

The reason is that Lee Seokki was essentially engaged in a sort of conspiratorial talk within a closed group that shared a very anachronistic mindset, and what made it seem dangerous was his status as a lawmaker. But if you look at the objective risk of the consequences of their actions, someone who directly inflames and incites the public like this, and who, like Pastor Jun Kwanghoon, can help trigger riot?like incidents such as the one at the Seoul Western District Court, clearly poses a greater latent risk. So I expect a very strict application of the law during the investigation.

So Jongseop: So you think he will be detained.

Park Wonseok: That is my view. But regardless of that, the People Power Party must cut ties with people like Jeon Hangil. What on earth do they have to gain by clinging to him? If they continue to be dragged around by someone who arrogantly says, “If you don’t listen to me, I’ll cut ties with you,” can that party really be called a party of government? It is absurd.

So Jongseop: Another figure drawing attention outside the People Power Party recently is Hong Joonpyo, the former mayor of Daegu, who has declared his retirement from politics. He has been posting a lot on social media lately and has been directly and sharply criticizing Mayor Oh Sehoon.

Park Wonseok: First of all, he must be bored. He has plenty of time, and he clearly still has a lot of lingering attachment to politics. He is not making these comments from the detached perspective of a commentator. I think he has a will to return. Whether that will work out is another question. It seems to me that he is trying to build a more amicable relationship with the current holders of party leadership. But as a past leader, no matter how much he tries to promote himself like this, I do not see much public response. At this rate, I would not be surprised if he suddenly announces that he will run should a by?election or re?election come up.

So Jongseop: It seems various maneuvers are unfolding within the Democratic Party of Korea around the question of a merger with the Cho Kuk Innovation Party.

Park Wonseok: Until last week, the criticism of Jeong Cheongrae’s sudden proposal focused on its timing, method, and procedure. In principle, everyone said they agreed. But now the stance has shifted to fundamental opposition in principle. We are now hearing remarks that question and attack Jeong Cheongrae’s political intentions and the very nature of his proposal. There are now open calls to stop the process altogether. The conflict is intensifying, and I think we are seeing a trend toward organized opposition. On the other hand, the forces that want to push this through also seem to be organizing. It appears to be taking the form of a power struggle. Despite all the criticism he is getting, if you look at Jeong Cheongrae’s message at the Supreme Council meetings yesterday and today, he has made it clear that, controversy and opposition notwithstanding, he will push ahead and settle the matter through a vote of all party members. If it goes to a party?wide vote, there will be intense debate for and against, but I think the likelihood of approval is high.

Prime Minister Kim Minseok (first from left) is talking with Jeong Cheongrae, leader of the Democratic Party (second from left), Cho Kuk, leader of the Cho Kuk Innovation Party (second from right), and Yoo Simin, writer (first from right), at the funeral altar for Lee Haechan, Senior Vice Chairman of the Democratic Peaceful Unification Advisory Council, set up at the funeral hall of Seoul National University Hospital in Jongno-gu, Seoul on January 27. Photo by Joint Press Corps

Park Wonseok: Even the prime minister has now jumped into the fray. When I saw that, I thought, “This situation is pretty serious.” The party convention is still six months away, yet the sitting prime minister has already declared that becoming party leader is his “romantic dream.” That is effectively a declaration that he will run. His role of overseeing state affairs as prime minister has been pushed to the back seat. He is now firmly positioned as a preliminary candidate for the party convention. This means the leadership race has been ignited early, and that is not a desirable situation from the president’s standpoint.

From Jeong Cheongrae’s perspective, there is no turning back now. If he backs down here, he loses his leadership. Then it will be difficult for him to exercise leadership as party leader even up to the next convention, and his prospects at that convention will also worsen. So I think he will push ahead. Discussion of the Cho Kuk Innovation Party is relatively less visible at the moment, but for them as well this is a major crossroads. In fact, they have virtually accepted the merger already. If this collapses now, who will be hurt the most? The Cho Kuk Innovation Party and its leader Cho Kuk will suffer the deepest wounds. It is already hard enough for them to fight the local elections as it is, and if this happens, those elections will become even more difficult and the party’s strength will shrink further. So from the standpoint of the Cho Kuk Innovation Party, this merger absolutely has to go through.If not, it will simply look as though they are being absorbed and dragged in, and that Cho Kuk’s return to institutional politics and the search for constituencies for his lawmakers are the only things that really matter.

So Jongseop: It seems that Jeong Cheongrae is trying to break through the merger issue by putting it to a vote of all party members, but there is also strong opposition to that.

Park Wonseok: The idea of a party?wide vote is not without justification. Under the party constitution and rules, matters such as party mergers or the creation of a new party are to be decided by a vote of all members. That is how they are supposed to be decided. So there is a basis for it. On top of that, the one?person?one?vote system has been introduced, and the Democratic Party’s direction is rooted in the idea of party?member sovereignty. Can they really go against that? Claims that pushing ahead with a party?wide vote actually serves to legitimize the controversy rather than resolve it, and the arguments made in opposition to this, are not completely baseless or wrong, but they are not very powerful. Moreover, if you look at the distribution of party?member opinion, I think support for unification will be ahead by at least 60 to 40. From Jeong Cheongrae’s standpoint, if he goes to the party members, public opinion among them is in his favor, and he believes he has the moral high ground. Also, figures like broadcaster Kim Eo?jun and writer Yoo Simin have begun political moves outside the party. There will be fierce debate for and against, especially among highly engaged party members, but I think the overall trend is moving in favor of the merger.

So Jongseop: So you think the merger will be completed before the local elections?

Park Wonseok: After the local elections, it will not mean much from Jeong Cheongrae’s standpoint. Before the local elections, the merger can influence the party convention. Jeong says he is not doing this out of ambition for the convention, but what politician would not have that in mind? And if around 100,000 new members come in, there is no guarantee they will all support Jeong, but it is generally seen as putting him in a relatively more advantageous position. However, after the local elections, it would no longer have meaning, and in that case it would be an absorption, not a merger. An absorption is not true unification, and the Cho Kuk Innovation Party would lose much of its ability to maintain an independent banner. So from their standpoint as well, the merger absolutely has to happen before the local elections. Saying “after the local elections” is basically the argument of those who oppose it and want to slow things down. For those who want the merger, there is little practical benefit in waiting. I think both sides will wage an all?out battle throughout the month of February.

So Jongseop: The president has been posting very frequently on social media lately, especially about real estate.

Park Wonseok: Up until this morning, I had assessed the president’s repeated comments on the seriousness of rising housing prices and real estate speculation as the expression of a policy will that, after watching the situation for some time, he could no longer leave it unattended and wanted to send a strong signal to the market. But on further reflection, I began to wonder whether, with the local elections in mind, the president is not in fact trying to construct a political frame.

So Jongseop: A political frame? What do you mean?

President Lee Jaemyung has been actively posting his thoughts on social media. Yonhap News

Park Wonseok: Real estate is inevitably an issue of concern to the entire nation. Elections have been shaken by real estate issues more than once. On one side you have multi?home speculators and those who, under the name of the market, advocate deregulation. On the other side, a large proportion of citizens still do not own homes, and most people are unrelated to such speculation, to owning multiple homes, or to the so?called “smart single property” strategy. I think the president may be trying to draw a line between these sides and create an electoral or political frame. The reason is that the president has been repeating essentially the same message over and over. Of course, it is also an expression of policy determination, and his will is perfectly clear by now. But I get the sense that this is more than that. I think it is excessive. In that case, the People Power Party is trying to rein him in.

In the end, if you divide the landscape into a small group that defends speculation and rising housing prices, and on the other side, the president and those who agree with him arguing that the “real estate?ruined nation” problem must be solved and that the abnormal concentration of money in real estate should be redirected into areas that support the national economy and growth potential, can the defenders of speculation and high prices really win? I do not think they can. So I suspect the president is using policy as material to construct a strong local?election frame. If that is the case, it is an enormous strategy. And the People Power Party is now being drawn into that strategy. The three conditions are all in place: the KOSPI is doing well, the president’s approval rating is high, and the opposition is weak and faltering. It is an expression of confidence. If the president is indeed building a political frame for the local elections, this is highly ingenious. I see it as a sure?win strategy for the Seoul race, a strategy thrown out there to secure victory in the Seoul mayoral election.

So Jongseop: As President Lee Jaemyung continues to post on social media about real estate and multi?home owners, attention is also turning to multi?home aides in the presidential office. There have even been reports that some aides have put their homes up for sale...

Park Wonseok: It is good that they have put them on the market. When the president is talking about the multi?home issue day after day as he is now, it is not desirable for his close aides to keep clinging to their properties. For multi?home owners, the most important factor in deciding whether to sell, in connection with the issue of heavy capital gains tax, is probably not the tax burden itself. I think the key question is whether they can still expect further price increases. There is also the thought that if they just hold out, there will eventually be a policy shift. That mentality is what created the myth that “real estate never fails.” If people close to the president do not sell and instead keep holding on, it can be read as a signal that prices will go up. Even if that is not their intention, such talk will easily spread. In any case, if the government wants its policies to be seen as credible and persuasive, those close to the president need to resolve issues like this.

So Jongseop: The Board of Audit and Inspection’s chairman has recommended lawyer Im Sunsook as a member of the Board of Audit and Inspection. She served as chief of staff to First Lady Kim Hye?kyung during the last presidential election, and her husband is Democratic Party lawmaker Jeong Jinwook. So the People Power Party is criticizing the move, recalling past criticisms made by the Democratic Party of Korea. How do you see it?

Park Wonseok: I think it is very problematic. Regardless of whether she has the expertise and qualifications, she served as chief of staff to the presidential candidate during the last election and as an appointed Supreme Council member of the party, which makes her a clearly factional figure. But the lifeblood of the Board of Audit and Inspection is its independence. Of course, one could argue that people who have held party membership or are close to the president should not be automatically excluded. That is a possible counterargument. But this case is special. On top of that, she is the wife of a Democratic Party lawmaker. Is she really the only person with that level of expertise? I do not think so. If the administration wants to show consideration to her, it should do so by placing her in some other position where this kind of controversy would not arise. This is not good. If such controversies pile up, people will eventually say “you’re both the same” and resort to whataboutism. They will say there is no difference between the previous administration and this one. I was surprised when I saw this news. The party should have stopped it.

I wonder if they are not trapped in a kind of internal group logic or groupthink. Within their own circle, they do not see a problem. They may think, “This much is fine.” But no matter how capable someone may be, there are things that must be avoided, and there are taboos. In this case, there are simply too many elements that invite controversy. She is the wife of a sitting lawmaker, she served as chief of staff to the president’s spouse during the last general and presidential elections, and she was an appointed Supreme Council member of the Democratic Party. That makes her clearly a factional political figure. Can such a person, whose role as an auditor at the Board of Audit and Inspection is supposed to rest on independence, really oversee and scrutinize the government? In principle, there is a clear conflict, and it will generate a lot of backlash. There is no need to push through such a contentious appointment. She should be considered for some other post. There may even be a better position for her. In my view, someone without this kind of baggage should be appointed there.

So Jongseop: Assemblyman Park, thank you for your insights.

Park Wonseok: Thank you.