Kim Yunhyeong: "Song Younggil Will 100% Run for Party Leader Race," Ha Heongi: "He Should Get a Strategic Nomination" [Current Affairs Show]

Ha Heongi: "The Party Should Give Special Treatment to Song Younggil"
Kim Yunhyeong: "Potential X-Factor in the Democratic Party's Seoul Mayoral Primary"

■ Broadcast: The Asia Business Daily 'So Jongseop's Current Affairs Show' (Mon-Fri, 4-5 p.m.)

■ Host: Political specialist So Jongseop ■ Producer: PD Park Sumin

※ When quoting this article, please make sure to credit 'So Jongseop's Current Affairs Show'.

Hello, everyone. This is So Jongseop's Current Affairs Show. Today, we have with us former Democratic Party of Korea deputy spokesperson Ha Heongi and former People Power Party deputy spokesperson Kim Yunhyeong to talk about some hot issues.

So Jongseop: Shall we talk a bit about the Democratic Party? After being acquitted, former leader Song Younggil is said to be applying to rejoin the party, right?

Ha Heongi: Former leader Song's political base is Incheon. Across the different factions, the Democratic Party of Korea feels a certain sense of indebtedness toward him. In fact, during the presidential election before last, he was attacked in a terror incident, hit on the head with a hammer, walking around with bandages, with a broken leg on crutches, campaigning in the presidential race. He essentially gave up his own constituency and yielded it to then-candidate Lee Jaemyoung, and that set of actions became a kind of butterfly effect that led to President Lee Jaemyoung today.

When the cash envelope scandal first broke, he was in France at the time, but he immediately flew back. After returning, he had no way to take responsibility within the system because he was neither a lawmaker nor a party official, so there was nothing to resign from. So he left the party, saying he would win an acquittal and then come back, and he fought a rather lonely battle from the outside. Many people have evaluated this as putting the party before himself, and now that he has returned with a not-guilty verdict, the sentiment is that, having made a special sacrifice, the party should give him special treatment. As for Incheon Gyeyang B, that is originally the constituency where former leader Song was politically active, so everyone is predicting that outcome. He is seen as a strong favorite.

So Jongseop: Do you think he should be given a nomination through strategic nomination?

Song Younggil, leader of Sonamudang, who was indicted on allegations of distributing cash envelopes at the Democratic Party of Korea's party convention and accepting illegal political funds, is standing with Democratic Party of Korea lawmakers in front of the courthouse to state his position after being acquitted at the appellate sentencing hearing held on the 13th at the Seoul High Court in Seocho District. Photo by Sonamudang, Yonhap News Agency

Ha Heongi: From a political judgment standpoint, I think former leader Song Younggil should be nominated in Incheon Gyeyang B. I think a strategic nomination would look the cleanest. And if you hold a primary, there is really no way to cut former leader Song. I do not see him losing in a primary. I actually go back and forth in that area and hear the mood there, and what people say is that even if former leader Song runs as an independent, he would win. And it is not as if he lost his seat there because of some violation of the election law while stepping away from the district. So I think the party will make a wise decision, and things will probably proceed in the natural order of things.

So Jongseop: Mr. Kim, how do you view former leader Song Younggil?

Kim Yunhyeong: From leader Jeong Cheongrae's standpoint, Song Younggil is bound to be uncomfortable. This is not a situation that can be viewed in a simplistic way. Even though people say the conflict has been resolved, I believe the conflict between President Lee Jaemyoung and leader Jeong Cheongrae still has embers smoldering. From President Lee's perspective, he appears to have in mind, if not exactly backing him, Prime Minister Kim Minseok as a future party leadership contender. But if you look at recent opinion polls on the next Democratic Party leader, Prime Minister Kim Minseok and leader Jeong Cheongrae are polling at almost the same level. In that case, President Lee absolutely has to secure control of the party leadership in order to run state affairs more firmly. Yet Prime Minister Kim Minseok did leave the Democratic Party for a period of time, did he not?

Because of that, his base is not that solid, whereas in the case of former leader Song Younggil, he is the most recent former party leader and, at the same time, from the Democratic Party's standpoint, he is someone who has made sacrifices and devoted himself. So there will clearly be aspects of his appeal to party members. Therefore, if former leader Song becomes a member of the National Assembly from Gyeyang B this time, I think President Lee Jaemyoung will have many more cards he can play at the next party convention.

So Jongseop: Mr. Ha, what do you think?

Ha Heongi: While I was in the Democratic Party, I saw many cases where, even when the president was very powerful, and even when that power grew, the party leader was not chosen according to the president's wishes. In the People Power Party, for example, former president Yoon Seokyeol lifted a candidate who was fifth in public and party member support up to first place and installed him, so it is the general perception that the president's influence is very strong in forming the leadership of the ruling party. In the case of the Democratic Party, even when the party leader is strong and the president is strong, there have been so many instances where the party leader was actually decided by the judgment of the party members that what Mr. Kim said can be fully used as a political analysis when looking at the People Power Party's situation, but it does not really match our internal situation in the Democratic Party.

So Jongseop: If we assume that former leader Song Younggil wins the by-election and enters the National Assembly, what do you think are the chances he will run in the August party convention?

Chung Cheongrae, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, is speaking at a Supreme Council meeting held at the National Assembly on the 13th. Photo by Kim Hyunmin

Ha Heongi: I honestly do not know about that. Former leader Song is someone with big ambitions, and he has already served once as party leader. But having just rejoined the party, it would be very burdensome for him to be talking about this and that future scenario. In any case, what is important right now is his return to public office and the fact that he is engaging in politics again, that he is resuming political activities. I think that in itself is what matters.

The party convention is still quite far away. And I would like to draw a line here and say this, even if it sounds like harsh criticism of my own party. If you want to win an election somewhere, I believe the right way is to work hard, produce policy results, give the public a sense of efficacy, and earn their trust so you can win. But when you look at local elections, you do not hear that kind of talk. All you hear is political engineering talk about how to form the electoral landscape by merging with which party and how.

I think that is inappropriate. From the public's perspective, I doubt it looks good at all.

Kim Yunhyeong: I think he will run with almost 100% certainty. The reason I say 100% is that, in addition to supporting President Lee Jaemyoung, there is also the fact that, as party leader, he would likely hold nomination power that could expand his own factional influence. That makes it even more likely that he will run.

So Jongseop: There were opinion poll reports released ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays, and in terms of the Seoul mayoral race, it seems that Oh Sehoon, mayor of Seoul, and Jeong Wono, Seongdong District mayor, are currently the two who are pulling ahead from each side of the aisle.

Kim Yunhyeong: Mayor Jeong Wono and Mayor Oh Sehoon are definitely riding an upward trend. Many people say that because Mayor Oh, who had long been in the lead, is now trailing Mayor Jeong in many polls, this is a sign of anxiety. It is certainly true that, in terms of trend, there have been many polls where their support levels have flipped. But I want to point out one thing here. In the current opinion polls, President Lee Jaemyoung's approval ratings are coming out very high, and furthermore, the People Power Party's approval ratings are extremely poor. Even so, among the three terrestrial broadcasters' polls this time, the only one where Mayor Oh Sehoon lost outside the margin of error was the KBS poll. In the MBC and SBS polls, it was a neck-and-neck race within the margin of error.

Given that, in this situation where the People Power Party is in deep trouble and party support is not providing any backing, I think we should pay attention to the fact that Mayor Oh is still performing to a certain extent purely on the strength of his personal competitiveness. Of course, from the Democratic Party's perspective, they can fully highlight and talk about the fact that the race has been reversed. But in this very unfavorable environment, the fact that Mayor Oh is maintaining his approval rating at roughly this level means we have to acknowledge that he has a certain degree of personal competitiveness.

I think the Democratic Party's Seoul mayoral primary, while it is clear that Mayor Jeong Wono is out in front, will not be easy because the other contenders are formidable figures. They have deep political skills and very long political experience. I do not think these people will easily step aside. In politics, things still revolve around Yeouido, do they not? All the people who are currently running for Seoul mayor from the Democratic Party are sitting members of the National Assembly. And they are not first-termers; they are multiple-term lawmakers. I think it is impossible to know what kind of moves they will make. In that process, we do not know what might come out of the Democratic Party's internal primary, so I think we should continue to watch that aspect closely going forward.

On the 19th, Oh Sehoon, Mayor of Seoul, was speaking at the Gangbuk Jeonseong Sidae press briefing.

Ha Heongi: When the index goes down, it is very difficult for the share prices of individual stocks listed in that index to rise. When the KOSPI falls, the share prices of individual stocks generally fall as well. Occasionally, there are stocks that are stronger than the index, but that is not the norm. In the perception of ordinary voters, the People Power Party is seen as a party that sits at home worrying about how to survive, while the Democratic Party is seen as trying to expand its power base. So this is what I am saying: even in the Seoul mayoral race, Mayor Oh Sehoon is being shaken from within his own party. Local elections are supposed to be about mobilizing your core supporters to the maximum, getting them excited and fully mobilized, and then expanding outward. But with the index itself trending downward like this, how on earth is Mayor Oh supposed to break through?

Jung Wono, Seongdong District Mayor (center), attended as a panelist at a policy forum on Seoul's city bus quasi-public operation system hosted by Lee Haesik (right) and Chae Hyunil (left) of the Democratic Party of Korea at the National Assembly Library on the 3rd. Yonhap News

So Jongseop: In Gyeonggi Province, the key question is ultimately who the Democratic Party candidate will be, and the competition is even fiercer. Recently, it seems to be shaping up as a two-way race between Governor Kim Dongyeon and lawmaker Choo Mihae. Would you say that is roughly the picture?

Ha Heongi: That is how things are moving. One disappointing point is this: if Yoo Seungmin, or if not necessarily Yoo Seungmin himself, at least some competitive conservative figure had run in Gyeonggi Province, then the Democratic Party's primary process there could have unfolded in a fresher way. In constituencies where you are likely to win, primaries tend to reflect the will of core party members and core supporters, whereas in difficult constituencies, general election competitiveness tends to carry more weight. In a region like Gyeonggi, I would prefer, if possible, that some checks and balances come into play so that, even though it is my own party, the primary could proceed in a fresher way, centered on general election competitiveness. But because that is not the current situation, I predict that as the race unfolds, the will of party members and core supporters will play an even larger role. That is not necessarily an entirely good thing.

So Jongseop: Is the reason no candidates are emerging from the People Power Party that they think it is obvious they would lose if they ran?

Kim Yunhyeong: When I talked about the Seoul mayoral race earlier, I predicted that the Democratic Party could suffer a lot of damage in the primary process, but the possibility is even higher in the Gyeonggi governor race. Governor Kim Dongyeon is, after all, a talent brought in from outside, with no real ties to the Democratic Party's mainstream factions, and he is not receiving strong support from Democratic Party members either, is he? On top of that, many of the other Democratic Party contenders are quite competitive. Also, and I am not sure how this will sound, but many of the Democratic Party's Gyeonggi governor hopefuls have rather rough-edged messaging. To be frank, they are rough. If such people go through a primary, they will 100% come out wounded. But the problem is that our party has no candidate, and that is an incredibly embarrassing fact.

So Jongseop: Whom would you like to see run as the Gyeonggi governor candidate?

Kim Yunhyeong: Because the party is so much on the defensive, I think it would be good if a sitting lawmaker could boldly stake his or her seat on the race. Of course, many people object to that suggestion because it carries the risk of reducing our number of seats by one. Even so, from the People Power Party's standpoint, I think we need to give the impression that we are burning our bridges. In that sense, I think we need to see sitting lawmakers show some courage. Alternatively, someone like former leader Kim Moonsoo, who has had influence within the party and has previously served as Gyeonggi governor, could come forward. But it is unfortunate that everyone is waving it off.

So Jongseop: Thank you both for your valuable insights.

Kim Yunhyeong and Ha Heongi: Thank you.