U.S. Facing Defensive Weapon Shortage vs. Iran Lacking Offensive Arms [Yang Nakkyu's Defence Club]

U.S. May Deploy U.S. Forces Korea to Middle East Amid Shortage of Defensive Weapons
Iran Shares Missile Technology with North Korea... Likely to Seek Help from Ally

There are projections that the United States may request assistance from the South Korean government to replenish its depleted defensive weaponry. While President Donald Trump has signaled a prolonged military operation against Iran, the United States currently lacks sufficient weapons to intercept Iranian attacks.

Plumes of smoke rise after a US-Israel military strike in Tehran, Iran. AP Photo The Associated Press

According to military sources on March 4, the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system and SM-3 surface-to-air missiles are considered core components of the U.S. military’s missile defense against enemy ballistic missiles. THAAD is deployed at ground bases, while SM-3 missiles are loaded on destroyers. Both are key weapon systems for intercepting potential Iranian retaliation.

However, the United States has been unable to replenish its stock of air defense missiles after depleting them at an unprecedented rate during the '12-Day War' between Iran and Israel in June last year. To defend Israel, up to 150 THAAD missiles were used. Since THAAD was first deployed in 2010, the total number of THAAD missiles the U.S. military has acquired remains under 650. It is also reported that over 80 SM-3 missiles-which can be launched from destroyers to intercept ballistic missiles outside the atmosphere-have been expended.

The U.S. Has Already Depleted Defense Weapons Including THAAD and SM-3

The situation is equally dire for other major interceptor missiles such as SM-2 and SM-6, which have shorter ranges than SM-3 and are used for terminal phase interception. Brendan McLane, Commander of Surface Forces for the U.S. Pacific Fleet, disclosed that approximately 200 SM-2 and SM-6 missiles had been depleted by January 2025 during operations against Houthi forces in the Red Sea last year. In fact, it is reported that U.S. military leadership has briefed President Trump that conducting prolonged military operations against Iran would be difficult with such depleted arsenals.

The pace of replenishment is slow due to the high cost of interceptor missiles. The U.S. Department of War plans to procure 37 THAAD missiles for $840 million and 12 SM-3 missiles for $445 million in the 2026 fiscal year. The unit cost is $23 million (about 3.31 billion won) for each THAAD missile and $37 million (about 5.34 billion won) per SM-3 missile.

Possibility of Deploying U.S. Forces Korea THAAD and Patriot Assets

If the United States cannot replenish its defensive weaponry, it may have no choice but to request assistance from the South Korean government. There are predictions that U.S. military assets and personnel stationed on the Korean Peninsula could be redeployed to the Middle East. Experts believe that air defense assets held by U.S. Forces Korea, such as Patriot and THAAD systems, as well as surveillance and reconnaissance assets like the MQ-9 'Reaper' drone permanently stationed at Gunsan Air Base since last year, could be subject to redeployment.

In June last year, prior to striking Iranian nuclear facilities in the 'Midnight Hammer' operation, the United States temporarily deployed three out of eight Patriot missile batteries from U.S. Forces Korea to the Middle East to prepare for potential Iranian retaliatory attacks. The Patriot batteries and around 500 personnel that were deployed at the time returned to Korea in October last year.

The Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system was deployed in Seongju, Gyeongbuk in 2017. Photo by Yonhap News Agency

Shin Jongwoo, Secretary-General of the Korea Defense Security Forum, stated, "If airstrikes are prolonged, the United States is likely to try to utilize the forces and assets of U.S. Forces Korea." The South Korean government also mentioned the possibility of support. A government official said, "There is always ongoing consultation between South Korea and the U.S. regarding the operation of U.S. Forces Korea assets," adding, "We are gathering opinions in consultation to ensure that the combined defense posture is not compromised." The Ministry of National Defense announced that Minister Ahn Kyubaek spoke with Elbridge Colby, U.S. Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, on March 2 at Colby’s request, during which he was briefed on the U.S. position regarding military operations against Iran.

Possibility of Indirect Ammunition Support Like in Ukraine

There is also a strong possibility of ammunition support. Early in the Ukraine war, South Korea provided the United States with war reserve stocks for the Korean Peninsula (WRSA-K), including 550,000 rounds of 155mm artillery shells, at the request of the U.S. WRSA-K refers to munitions brought by the U.S. to Korea from 1974 over a five-year period in preparation for wartime scenarios on the peninsula. Since the South Korean government owns the WRSA-K stockpile, the U.S. cannot provide these shells to Ukraine without South Korea’s consent. However, instead of sending these shells directly to Ukraine, they were first used to replenish U.S. military reserves, and the U.S. supplied its own existing shells to Ukraine. Subsequently, the U.S. repays South Korea by contracting with domestic defense companies to produce new shells for the South Korean military.

Neighboring Countries Expected to Request Additional K-Defense Systems like Cheongung

Requests for defensive weapons from neighboring countries are expected to increase. It has been reported that the domestically produced Cheongung-II air defense system, deployed in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), intercepted missiles launched by Iran. After signing a contract in 2022 with Korea’s LIG Nex1, Hanwha Systems, and Hanwha Aerospace to procure ten Cheongung-II batteries, the UAE military authorities have so far deployed two batteries in active service.

The Latest Surface-to-Air Guided Weapon 'Chun-gung' to Replace Hawk

Recently, when Iran, having been attacked by the U.S. and Israel, launched missile strikes at U.S. military bases in neighboring countries, the Cheongung-II systems deployed in the UAE reportedly operated alongside U.S.-made Patriot and Israeli Arrow air defense systems to intercept Iranian missiles. The Cheongung-II is a mid-range, medium-altitude surface-to-air interception system developed to simultaneously counter ballistic missiles and aircraft attacks and is often called the 'Korean Patriot.' Each Cheongung-II battery consists of four launchers, a radar system, and an engagement control center. This is reportedly the first time a domestically produced Korean air defense system exported overseas has been used in actual combat.

If Israel Runs Out of Missiles, It May Turn to North Korea

Conversely, if Iran’s stockpile of offensive weapons diminishes, it may seek assistance from North Korea. Iran is currently believed to possess about 2,000 ballistic missiles. However, given that the United States is mobilizing its most advanced assets to strike more than 1,000 targets in Iran, there is a strong possibility that Iran’s ballistic missile launchers could be neutralized first. In fact, the Israeli military announced on March 1 that it had destroyed approximately 200 of Iran’s ballistic missile launchers and disabled dozens more in airstrikes since June last year. This represents about half of Iran’s current launcher stockpile.

Iran and North Korea: Alliance Involving Missile Technology Sharing

Iran and North Korea have already been sharing missile technology. In a November 2019 report on Iranian military power, the U.S. Department of War’s Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) analyzed that North Korean technology is linked to Iran’s weapons systems, including ballistic missiles. The report evaluated that Iran’s medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs), in particular, have been influenced by North Korean missile technology. For example, Iran’s mainstay liquid-fueled MRBM, the Shahab-3, is known to be based on North Korea’s No-Dong missile, and the Khorramshahr missile, produced by Iran since 2017, is also reportedly linked to North Korea’s Musudan missile technology. The report also noted that, in the field of solid-fuel missiles, Iran is more advanced than North Korea, with the Fateh series of solid-fuel short-range ballistic missiles being representative.

The alliance between Iran and North Korea is also strong. The 'Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty' signed between the two countries in June 2024 provides a legal basis for so-called 'automatic military intervention.' Article 4 of the treaty states, "If either party comes under armed attack by an individual country or multiple countries and is in a state of war, the other party shall, in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter and the laws of North Korea and the Russian Federation, immediately provide military and other assistance using all means at its disposal."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.