[US-Iran Conflict] Iran's Next Leader... Internal Succession Discussions Intensify

Hassan Khomeini, the Grandson of Khomeini, Draws Attention

As the United States has eliminated a number of key Iranian figures, including Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, attention is now focused on the succession structure for the next Supreme Leader. According to major international media reports on March 2 (local time), Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who led the 1979 Iranian Islamic Revolution, is being discussed as a leading candidate.

Currently, a three-member Leadership Council is temporarily carrying out the duties of the Supreme Leader until a successor is appointed. According to Iran's state-run IRNA news agency on March 1, the council consists of President Masoud Pezeshkian, Chief Justice Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, and Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, a member of the Guardian Council. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that a new Supreme Leader will be elected early this week. The Supreme Leader is appointed by the Assembly of Experts, which is composed of 88 clerics.

Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of Iran. Photo by AP News

US broadcaster CNBC identified Chief Justice Ejei, Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, and Council member Arafi as strong candidates for the next seat of power. Reuters pointed out that Hassan is the most prominent candidate.

The New York Times (NYT) reported, based on interviews with six senior Iranian officials and two clerics, that last June Khamenei named Chief Justice Ejei, Hassan, and his chief of staff Ali Asghar Hejazi as potential successors in case of his incapacitation. However, Chief of Staff Hejazi is reported to have died in an Israeli airstrike.

Hassan Khomeini, aged 53, is the most widely recognized among the 15 grandchildren of the late Khomeini and is considered a relatively moderate figure within Iranian clerical circles. He has maintained close relations with former reformist presidents Mohammad Khatami and Hassan Rouhani, who sought to improve relations with the West. He is also the caretaker of his grandfather's mausoleum in southern Tehran but has no experience in major government positions.

Amid the growing influence of hardliners under Khamenei’s regime, some believe Hassan could emerge as a counterweight. In particular, there is speculation that he could become a potential rival to hardliners like Mojtaba Khamenei, the Supreme Leader’s son, forming a competitive structure. The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) noted that appointing a figure like Hassan to a senior position could help preserve Iran’s core structure, ease international isolation, and alleviate internal discontent.

Chief Justice Ejei is a figure who has served in key national security positions such as Prosecutor General, First Deputy Chief Justice and spokesperson for the judiciary, and Minister of Intelligence. He is also a member of the Supreme National Security Council, a key advisory body to Iran’s leadership, and has held senior roles in both the judiciary and national security sectors.

Council member Arafi is a senior cleric and Islamic jurist who earned the trust of Ayatollah Khamenei and was considered a potential candidate for the next Supreme Leader. He is regarded as a key figure in Iran’s clerical power structure, is a member of the Assembly of Experts, and his father had a close relationship with Khomeini.

The weekly news magazine Time cited, in addition to Council member Arafi and Hassan, other strong candidates including Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of Supreme Leader Khamenei; former President Rouhani; Ali Larijani, Secretary-General of the Supreme National Security Council; and Mohammad Mehdi Mirbagheri.

Mojtaba is regarded as a powerful behind-the-scenes figure who could succeed his father. He also maintains close connections with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). However, Supreme Leader Khamenei has expressed opposition to hereditary succession.

Secretary-General Larijani served as Speaker of Parliament from 2008 to 2020, held ministerial positions in four ministries, and served as a commander in the Revolutionary Guard, giving him significant influence across the Iranian system. He was once viewed in the West as a “pragmatic conservative,” but led a violent crackdown on anti-government protests. According to the NYT, on February 28, prior to the airstrikes, he was delegated state management duties by Khamenei and became a target of US and Israeli airstrikes.

Meanwhile, according to the prediction market platform Polymarket, Council member Arafi is currently considered the most likely candidate for the next Iranian leader with 21% odds, followed by Chief Justice Ejei at 17%, and Hassan at 15%.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.