"Booming Stock Market" Pushes Current Household Saving CSI to All-Time High... Consumer Sentiment Rises for Second Month

Housing Price Outlook CSI down 16 points... Biggest drop in 3 years and 7 months
"Government real estate regulations and measures have dampened expectations"

The Composite Consumer Sentiment Index (CCSI) for February rose for the second consecutive month. Strong export performance led by semiconductors and a booming stock market helped improve consumer sentiment.

Strong exports + booming stock market, leading to improved consumer sentiment

According to the "February 2026 Consumer Survey" released by the Bank of Korea on the 24th, this month’s CCSI came in at 112.1, up 1.3 points from the previous month. The CCSI is a sentiment indicator that comprehensively reflects consumers’ perceptions of economic conditions. It is calculated using six key indices that make up the Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI), including current living conditions, expected household income, and expected consumption spending. The long-term average (from January 2003 to December 2025) is set at 100 as the baseline; a reading above 100 means sentiment is more optimistic than the long-term average, while a reading below 100 means it is more pessimistic. Lee Heunghu, head of the Economic Sentiment Survey Team at the Economic Statistics Department 1 of the Bank of Korea, explained, "The index rose slightly from the previous month as optimistic assessments of the economy increased, driven by strong exports centered on semiconductors and a booming stock market."

The CCSI plunged to 87.9 in December 2024 as consumer sentiment deteriorated due to the martial law crisis, and it remained below the baseline of 100 through April last year. In May, however, it climbed above the baseline as the easing of trade risks following the United States’ suspension of reciprocal tariffs and expectations for the launch of a new government overlapped. Supported by improving consumption and strong exports, the index moved around the 110 level from July onward and reached 112.3 in November, marking the highest level in eight years. In December, it fell to 109.8 under the burden of a weak won and rising living costs, but in January this year it again recovered to the 110 level.

Domestic stock market takes off... Current Household Saving CSI hits all-time high

The sentiment indices rose mainly in current economic assessment and future economic outlook. The Current Economic Assessment CSI (95) increased by 5 points, reflecting the impact of improving consumption, strong exports, and a booming stock market. The Future Economic Outlook CSI (102) rose by 4 points on expectations of economic improvement driven by continued strong exports centered on semiconductors. The Interest Rate Outlook CSI (105) climbed 1 point due to higher market interest rates and rising lending rates at commercial banks.

Amid a rally in the domestic stock market, including the KOSPI approaching the 6,000-point mark, the Current Household Saving CSI (100) recorded an all-time high. Current household saving reflects perceptions of the current situation regarding savings and investment in bank deposits and installment savings, as well as stocks and funds, compared with six months ago.

Sharp drop in expectations for home price increases... Housing Price Outlook CSI posts biggest decline in 3 years and 7 months

In contrast, the Housing Price Outlook CSI (108) fell by 16 points from the previous month to 108. This level is only slightly above the long-term average of 107. The magnitude of this decline is the largest since July 2022, when nationwide home sale prices began to turn downward amid rising market interest rates and the index also dropped by 16 points.

The Housing Price Outlook CSI reflects perceptions of home prices one year from now compared with current levels. A reading above 100 means that more households expect home prices to be higher one year from now than those expecting them to be lower. After falling below 100 early last year, the index gradually increased as home prices in key areas such as Gangnam-gu rose during the process of lifting and re-designating land transaction permit zones in Seoul, eventually reaching 120 in June last year. Following the government’s June 27 demand-suppression measures, the index dropped below the 110 level, but then climbed again, surpassing 120 (122) in October, dipping slightly in November (119), rising to 121 in December, and further to 124 in January this year.

The sharp weakening of expectations for home price increases this month is analyzed as being due to growing expectations for price declines, driven by the announced end of the temporary suspension of heavy capital gains taxes on multi-home owners and the January 29 real estate measures. Lee assessed, "Government real estate measures have calmed consumers’ expectations for higher home prices." Lee added, "Recently, the pace of home price increases has been gradually slowing, especially in Seoul," and noted, "It will be necessary to monitor future real estate market conditions to see how long and to what extent consumers’ expectations for falling home prices will affect actual housing market supply and demand."

The expected inflation rate for the next year (2.6%) was unchanged from the previous month, as higher prices for essential consumer goods such as processed foods and seafood continued despite a slowdown in overall consumer price inflation. The expected inflation rates for three years and five years ahead both remained at 2.5%, the same as the previous month.

Meanwhile, this survey was conducted from the 4th to the 11th of this month on 2,500 urban households nationwide, with 2,262 households responding.

View of densely packed apartment buildings in Seoul from Namsan on the 23rd. Yonhap News