[Weekend Money]Is Solar Power Heating Up?...Sparks of Rebound Rising in Korea, the US, and China

There is an outlook that solar power prices will rebound, led by Korea, the United States, and China.

Solar panels installed at LS Electric Cheonan DC Factory in Chungnam. Photo by Kang Jinhyung

On the 7th, DB Financial Investment analyzed that solar power prices will rise, driven by demand recovery in Korea, higher electricity rates in the United States, and declining inventories in China.

In Korea, domestic solar power demand is expected to more than double. Korea’s annual renewable energy generation installation currently stands at around 4.2 GW, but this needs to be increased to an annual average of more than 10 GW going forward. Although the Ministry of Climate, Energy and Environment has proposed supplying 100 GW of renewable energy by 2030, the cumulative installed capacity as of 2024 is only 41 GW. Since solar power accounts for 90% of Korea’s renewable energy generation installations, expectations are rising that the domestic solar power market will expand.

In the United States, demand for residential and commercial solar power is expected to recover due to the risk of rising electricity rates. According to environmental, social and governance (ESG) materials released last November and annual outlook reports published early this year, the risk of a sharp jump in electricity bills in the United States may persist this year, and in the short term solar power is effectively the only alternative. In this context, the first-quarter 2026 revenue forecast for Enphase Energy, which provides integrated systems based on solar microinverters, has also been raised from 250 million dollars to a range of 270 million to 300 million dollars.

China appears to be preparing for conditions after inventories decline. On January 9, the Chinese government decided to abolish the value-added tax refund policy on solar power exports as of April 1. Because of this, it was expected that supply would surge in the short term until April and that prices would fall, but prices of Chinese solar cells and modules, which have a high export share, are instead rebounding. The market is positioning itself for a price rebound after April, when supply is expected to decrease.

Han Seungjae, a researcher at DB Financial Investment, said, "In the United States, solar demand will increase due to rising electricity rates and the possibility of short-term interest rate stabilization; in China, due to declining inventories; and in Korea, due to growing demand," adding, "Given that Elon Musk is even talking about space-based solar power, there is a strong possibility that the embers of a rebound will spread further."