China's Military No. 2 Purged... Is the Taiwan Strait Becoming More Dangerous? [Sisa Show]

Mass Purge of Zhang Youxia and Senior Generals
Xi Jinping's One-Man Rule, No Remaining Opposition
No Forces Left to Oppose a Decision to Invade Taiwan

■ Broadcast: The Asia Business Daily 'So Jongseop's Current Affairs Show'

■ Host: Political Specialist So Jongseop

■ Director: PD Ma Yena

■ Guest: Reporter Lee Hyunwoo

A massive upheaval has occurred within the Chinese military. The Chinese Ministry of National Defense announced that Zhang Youxia, the Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission and the second most powerful figure in the Chinese military, has been arrested on corruption charges, thereby confirming the rumors of his purge. As a result, analysts suggest that President Xi Jinping's control over the military has effectively reached completion. This purge is being seen as an event that could fundamentally reshape the security landscape of East Asia, going far beyond a mere personnel change.

China's Military No. 2 Zhang Youxia Purged... Intensifying Leadership Vacuum

TASS Yonhap News Agency

Zhang had long been regarded as the only figure within the Chinese military capable of standing up to President Xi. Some Chinese media outlets report that his sudden purge was due to his opposition to Xi's leadership. This has fueled a flurry of conspiracy theories, ranging from rumors that Zhang attempted a military coup and failed, to claims of gunfights in Beijing, and even allegations that he leaked military secrets to the United States.

Chinese authorities have called for restraint, warning people not to make hasty predictions. However, the mere mention of treason has led experts to believe that the situation is highly unusual. Given the extraordinary developments and the Chinese government's urgent response, the prevailing analysis is that this is a major political incident that goes far beyond a simple corruption case.

As a result of this purge, most senior positions in the Chinese military are now vacant. The Central Military Commission, which consists of seven members, currently has only President Xi Jinping and Vice Chairman Zhang Shengmin, who was promoted in October last year. The other five positions are all vacant. In addition, the number of generals holding the rank equivalent to a four-star general in South Korea, which used to be around 30 to 40, has now dropped to just four. The top military leaders have been purged en masse.

This signifies that the internal power struggle within the Chinese military, which has been ongoing for years, has ended in Xi Jinping's favor. Going forward, Xi is expected to rapidly appoint younger generals loyal to him, restructuring the military organization that has fallen into disarray. In effect, an unchallenged one-man rule by Xi Jinping has been firmly established within the Chinese military.

Xi's One-Man Rule Solidified... No Remaining Checks Against Taiwan Invasion

AP Yonhap News

Amid this leadership vacuum, some analysts note that the likelihood of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan has actually increased. First, there are now no remaining military officials who might oppose Xi's plans to invade Taiwan. Zhang Youxia was known to be against the invasion, warning that it would inflict massive losses on the Chinese military and cautioning against unilateral decisions. With this obstacle completely removed, and with the military soon to be filled with Xi loyalists, it is now seen as only a matter of time before an invasion plan could be put into action if Xi desires it.

Additionally, the generation within the Chinese military with actual combat experience has been entirely purged. Zhang Youxia and his associates, who participated in the 1979 China-Vietnam War, were known as the "Yue Zhan Fang" in China. They were virtually the only group within the Chinese military with real combat experience and were valued for their understanding of the dangers and horrors of war.

In contrast, most of Xi's current inner circle has never experienced war. No matter how modernized the Chinese military may be, it is difficult to predict the scale of casualties that could occur if commanders with no combat experience were to fight in a highly fortified region like Taiwan. U.S. and Western military experts also warn that if the Chinese military, now composed of yes-men with no knowledge of war, embarks on a risky invasion, the resulting losses could be catastrophic.

The Taiwanese government immediately went on high alert. As soon as news of Zhang's purge broke, Taiwan conducted its first emergency response drill of the year, checking all major forces, including its main fighter jets and U.S.-supplied air defense missiles, and focusing on exercises to counter Chinese military assets.

Taiwan's concerns are well-founded. The Chinese military has upgraded its Taiwan encirclement drills to an annual operation, and incursions by military aircraft into the Taiwan Strait continue. The Chinese government is expressing an increasingly strong resolve regarding the issue of unification with Taiwan. Retired U.S. generals who previously interacted with the Chinese military have also raised concerns that the likelihood of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan this year or next has increased, especially given China's current state of military preparedness.

China has recently relocated numerous shipyards capable of repairing warships to coastal areas near Taiwan. Long-range drone manufacturing plants are being concentrated in the southern region, and China is also mass-producing unmanned combat ships, dubbed "drone aircraft carriers," capable of transporting drones over long distances. Military experts warn that if China were to deploy tens of thousands, or even hundreds of thousands, of drones over Taiwan at once, Taiwan's air defenses could be paralyzed, and the island would inevitably face missile shortages. While Taiwan is urgently building new weapons factories and importing additional drones from the United States, there are doubts as to whether it can keep up with China's overwhelming production capacity.

Shifting Northeast Asian Dynamics... South Korea Could Be Drawn In If China Invades Taiwan

Reuters Yonhap News

If China were to actually invade Taiwan, all countries in Northeast Asia would be affected. The most immediate concern is Japan, as Okinawa, Japanese territory, is located right next to Taiwan. Analysts note that, from the Chinese military's perspective, to prevent U.S. or Japanese forces from supporting Taiwan, they would have no choice but to attack mainland Japan or Okinawa.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi recently stated during a general election campaign, "If something major happens in Taiwan, I will go to rescue Japanese and Americans living there." Despite strong protests from China, she has not withdrawn her statement, and domestic support in Japan remains steady. This indicates that the Japanese public also perceives the possibility of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan as a real threat.

In the worst-case scenario of a full-scale war between China and Taiwan, South Korea would also be unable to avoid the fallout. The U.S.-Korea alliance and the U.S.-Japan alliance form the most crucial pillars of America's Asia-Pacific strategy. The South Korean government could easily be drawn into issues such as direct or indirect troop or material support. While scenarios of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan around 2027 have been frequently discussed in the past, the recent mass purge within the Chinese military has made this possibility even more tangible.

For South Korea, this is not just a distant issue but one that is directly linked to national security. It is essential to prepare thoroughly for a variety of scenarios. Now more than ever, there is an urgent need for strategic consideration of how Xi Jinping's consolidation of power will affect the security landscape of Northeast Asia, and how South Korea should respond.