[Trump Year One ④] "Stable Korea-U.S. Relations... The Effect of Lee Jaemyung's 'Play Ball'"

Brookings Korea Chair Andrew Yeo
Video Interview with Asia Economy
"Strategic Value of Korean AI and Semiconductor Firms Has Also Grown"

"Despite the unpredictability shown after the Trump administration's return, it is impressive that the progressive Lee Jaemyung administration has been able to 'play ball'-that is, negotiate and adapt to Trump."

Andrew Yeo, Korea Chair at the Brookings Institution, is being interviewed by this publication on the topic of the second Trump administration and Korea-US relations.

Andrew Yeo, Korea Chair at the Brookings Institution, a Washington, D.C.-based American think tank, said in an interview with this publication on January 20 (local time), marking the first anniversary of the second Trump administration, "The Korean government has accurately understood what President Trump wants and has provided the elements he values, such as investment, defense spending, and personal praise."

He pointed out that this is in stark contrast to the concerns raised by the U.S. government at the beginning of the Lee Jaemyung administration. In June of last year, the White House issued a statement after President Lee, who advocated a 'pragmatic diplomacy' stance between the U.S. and China, was elected, directly mentioning concerns about Chinese interference in democracy. It was unusual for the White House to openly raise the issue of Chinese involvement on the day the Korean presidential election results were announced.

Yeo also noted that over the past year, as President Trump's pressure for domestic investment has increased, "the presence and strategic value of Korean companies in the fields of artificial intelligence (AI) and semiconductors have actually grown." He added, "Companies themselves likely feel that their roles and status have become more important," and explained, "Korean businesspeople are exerting influence through their networks with American companies, especially those who have direct access to President Trump." As a representative example, he cited the cooperation between Nvidia, led by CEO Jensen Huang, and Samsung Electronics, led by Chairman Lee Jaeyong.

Yeo rated the achievements of the second Trump administration over the past year at 2 out of 10. While there have been accomplishments like increased allied defense cost sharing, he believes that the negative impact on American society from tariffs and immigration and border control policies-heavily influenced by President Trump's personal tendencies-has been greater. He particularly pointed out that, compared to the first term, the second administration lacks the so-called "adults in the room" who could rein in President Trump.

Yeo is a Korean-American political scientist at the Brookings Institution, currently leading a research project on the Indo-Pacific strategies of the United States and its allies. The Brookings Institution is considered one of the most influential think tanks in Washington, D.C., alongside the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the Heritage Foundation.

The following is a Q&A with Andrew Yeo.

-If you were to rate the first year of Trump's second term on a scale of 1 to 10?

▲I would give it a 2. There is a new policy crisis almost every day, and in many cases, these stem not from external factors but from President Trump's own decision-making. Tariffs are a prime example-now the United States is threatening its allies again with tariffs, even talking about buying Greenland. This creates significant uncertainty and burdens for American consumers. The direction of immigration and border control policies is correct, but there were illegal acts during implementation. On the positive side, there is renewed interest in economic revitalization through manufacturing and awareness of future technologies such as critical minerals and AI. While securing increased defense spending from allies is a clear achievement, it is more of a short-term result and has reduced allies' dependence on the United States.

-Do you think the second term is better than the first?

▲I believe the second term is worse than the first. There have been many attention-grabbing moves diplomatically-such as actions in Venezuela, airstrikes on Iran, and attempts to mediate the Israel-Gaza conflict. These may appear to be diplomatic achievements, but they have increased instability in international politics. What is somewhat surprising is that the U.S. economy is still functioning and a growth rate of about 2% is projected. Nevertheless, when considering the decline in trust in government, deepening political polarization, and increased international uncertainty, the overall situation has worsened.

-How would you assess Korea-U.S. relations under the Trump administration?

▲The Korea-U.S. alliance has remained relatively stable. The Lee Jaemyung administration has been quite adept at managing President Trump. During the Yoon Sukyeol-Biden administration, both leaders were strongly committed to strengthening the alliance, which allowed Korea-U.S. relations to function very smoothly. Even in the politically challenging environment following impeachment, the Lee administration responded much more effectively than expected. President Trump makes all alliances difficult, but ultimately, alliances are a matter of management and maintenance. The so-called 'alliance managers' in the U.S. Department of Defense and Department of State still want the Korea-U.S. alliance to continue.

-How do you see Korea's position compared to other allies?

▲Korea is in a relatively advantageous position. The Lee Jaemyung administration has accurately understood what President Trump wants and has provided the elements he values, such as investment, defense spending, and personal praise. As a result, Korea has secured a certain degree of political buffer and negotiating assets. In contrast, European and NATO countries have exhausted considerable diplomatic assets over issues such as Greenland. Asian allies, given the strategic variable of China, find it relatively easier to manage relations.

-How do you think Korean companies view the first year of Trump's second term?

▲Large corporations such as Samsung, SK, and Hyundai Motor are clearly aware that uncertainty has increased. If auto tariffs reach 25%, it would directly impact corporate profitability. Nevertheless, Korean companies made large-scale investments in the United States in 2022 and 2023, and have yet to recoup those results. In the long term, there is no change in the judgment that the U.S. market is the most important. The United States is a very large consumer market and is more attractive in terms of profit than Europe or Southeast Asia. However, smaller and medium-sized companies face much greater risks, and there are concerns that increased investment in the U.S. could lead to job losses in Korea.

-What is your view on the immigration crackdown at Hyundai's Georgia plant?

▲It was a very unfortunate incident that should not have happened. At the same time, it made the U.S. government recognize the contradiction between attracting investment and enforcing immigration crackdowns. After this incident, Korea and the United States formed a working group to discuss visa issues, which led to institutional improvements. President Trump did not issue a public apology, but he has repeatedly stated the need for Korean workers, which is effectively the closest expression of regret. At this point, there are no signs that Korean investment in the United States is slowing down. However, due to slowing demand for electric vehicles, there is a possibility that battery factories may be converted to other uses such as AI and energy.

-What is the most advantageous choice for Korea amid U.S.-China strategic competition?

▲The most advantageous choice for Korea is still to strengthen its alliance with the United States. There is a clear difference when comparing the agendas discussed at summits with the United States and those with China. Meetings with China focused on non-core issues such as climate change and expanded exchanges, with no substantive concessions on core issues like the West Sea or denuclearization. In contrast, summits with the United States addressed substantive issues such as defense industry cooperation, nuclear submarines, and large-scale investments. Nevertheless, diplomatic diversification is necessary. It is important to simultaneously strengthen relations with China, Europe, and developing countries.

-How do you view political polarization in the United States and the upcoming midterm elections in November?

▲Political polarization in American society is deepening. Some political scientists even describe the United States as a "competitive authoritarian regime." This November's midterm elections will be a test to determine whether MAGA is a temporary political movement or an institutionalized mainstream political force. The Democratic Party will seek to retain congressional power to prevent MAGA-oriented policies and rulings from becoming permanent.