[Trump Year One ④] "Stable Korea-U.S. Relations... The Effect of Lee Jaemyung's 'Play Ball'"

Brookings Korea Chair Andrew Yeo
Video Interview with Asia Economy
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"Despite the unpredictability displayed by the second Donald Trump administration after its re-inauguration, it is impressive that the progressive Lee Jaemyung government has been able to 'play ball'-that is, negotiate in alignment with Trump."

Andrew Yeo, Korea Chair at the Brookings Institution, is being interviewed by this publication on the topic of the second Trump administration and Korea-US relations.

Andrew Yeo, Korea Chair at the Washington, D.C.-based think tank Brookings Institution (pictured), said in an interview with this publication on January 20 (local time), marking the first anniversary of the second Trump administration, "The Korean government understood exactly what President Donald Trump wanted and provided the elements he values, such as investment, defense spending, and personal praise," evaluating the situation as such.

He pointed out that this is in stark contrast to the concerns raised by the U.S. government at the beginning of the Lee Jaemyung administration. In June of last year, the White House issued a statement after President Lee, who advocated a 'pragmatic diplomacy' line between the U.S. and China, was elected, directly mentioning concerns about Chinese interference in democracy. It was unusual for the White House to openly raise the issue of Chinese interference on the day of the announcement of the Korean presidential election results.

Additionally, Yeo assessed that over the past year, as President Trump increased pressure for domestic investment, "the presence and strategic value of Korean companies in the fields of artificial intelligence (AI) and semiconductors have actually grown." He added, "Companies will feel that their roles and status have become more important," and noted, "Korean business leaders are exerting influence through their networks with U.S. companies, especially those who have direct access to President Trump." As a representative example, he cited the cooperation between Nvidia, led by CEO Jensen Huang, and Samsung Electronics, led by Chairman Lee Jaeyong.

Yeo rated the achievements of the second Trump administration over the past year at 2 out of 10 points. While there have been accomplishments such as increased allied defense cost sharing, he believes the negative impact of tariffs and immigration/border control policies-heavily influenced by President Trump's personal tendencies-has been greater for American society. He particularly pointed out that, compared to the first administration, the second lacks the "adults in the room" who could rein in President Trump's excesses.

Yeo is a Korean-American political scientist at the Brookings Institution, currently conducting research projects on the Indo-Pacific strategies of the U.S. and its allies. The Brookings Institution is considered one of the most influential think tanks in Washington, D.C., alongside the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the Heritage Foundation.

The following is a Q&A with Yeo.

-If you were to rate the first year of Trump's second term on a scale of 1 to 10?

▲I would give it a 2. There is a new policy crisis almost every day, and these are often the result of President Trump's decision-making rather than external factors. Tariffs are a prime example-now the U.S. is threatening its allies again with tariffs, even suggesting the purchase of Greenland. This creates significant uncertainty and burden for American consumers. The direction of immigration and border control policies is appropriate, but there were illegal actions during implementation. On the positive side, there is a focus on revitalizing the economy through manufacturing and an awareness of future technologies such as critical minerals and AI. Achieving increased defense spending from allies is a clear accomplishment, but it is more of a short-term result and has reduced allies' dependence on the U.S.

-Do you think the second term is better than the first?

▲I believe the second term is worse than the first. Diplomatically, there have been many attention-grabbing moves-such as actions in Venezuela, airstrikes in Iran, and attempts to mediate the Israel-Gaza conflict. These may appear as significant diplomatic achievements, but they have increased instability in international politics. Somewhat surprisingly, the U.S. economy is still functioning, and the growth outlook remains around 2%. However, considering the decline in trust in government, deepening political polarization, and increasing international uncertainty, the overall situation has deteriorated.

-How do you assess Korea-U.S. relations under the Trump administration?

▲The Korea-U.S. alliance has remained relatively stable. The Lee Jaemyung administration has been quite adept at managing President Trump. During the Yoon Sukyeol-Biden period, both leaders were strongly committed to strengthening the alliance, so relations operated very smoothly. Even in the politically challenging environment following impeachment, the Lee administration responded much more effectively than expected. President Trump makes all alliances difficult, but ultimately, alliances are a matter of management and maintenance. The so-called "alliance managers" in the U.S. Department of Defense and State Department still want the Korea-U.S. alliance to continue.

-How do you see Korea's position compared to other allies?

▲Korea is in a relatively advantageous position. The Lee Jaemyung administration understood exactly what President Trump wanted and provided the elements he values, such as investment, defense spending, and personal praise. As a result, Korea has secured some degree of political buffer and negotiating assets. In contrast, European and NATO countries have expended significant diplomatic capital over issues like Greenland. Asian allies have the strategic variable of China, which makes relationship management relatively easier in some respects.

-How do you think Korean companies view the first year of Trump’s second term?

▲Large companies such as Samsung, SK, and Hyundai Motor are clearly aware of the increased uncertainty. If auto tariffs reach 25%, it would directly impact corporate profitability. Nevertheless, Korean companies made large-scale investments in the U.S. in 2022 and 2023 and have not yet recouped those results. Their assessment that the U.S. market is the most important in the long term remains unchanged. The U.S. is a market with tremendous consumer scale and is more attractive in terms of profit than Europe or Southeast Asia. However, smaller and mid-sized companies face much greater risks, and there are concerns that expanding investment in the U.S. could lead to job losses in Korea.

-What is your view on the immigration crackdown incident at the Hyundai Motor plant in Georgia?

▲It was a very unfortunate incident that should not have happened. At the same time, it made the U.S. government aware of the contradiction between attracting investment and enforcing immigration crackdowns. After this incident, Korea and the U.S. formed a working group to discuss visa issues, which led to institutional improvements. President Trump did not offer a public apology, but he has repeatedly mentioned the need for Korean workers, which is effectively the closest expression of regret. At present, there are no signs that Korean investment in the U.S. is slowing down. However, due to a slowdown in electric vehicle demand, there is a possibility that battery plants may be repurposed for other uses such as AI and energy.

-What is the most advantageous choice for Korea amid U.S.-China strategic competition?

▲The most advantageous choice for Korea is still to strengthen its alliance with the U.S. There is a clear difference between the agendas discussed at summits with the U.S. and those with China. Meetings with China focused on non-core issues such as climate change and expanding exchanges, with no substantive concessions on core issues like the West Sea or denuclearization. In contrast, summits with the U.S. addressed substantive topics such as defense industry cooperation, nuclear submarines, and large-scale investments. Nevertheless, diplomatic diversification is necessary. It is important to simultaneously strengthen relations with China, Europe, and developing countries.

-How do you view political polarization in the U.S. and the upcoming November midterm elections?

▲Political polarization in American society is deepening further. Some political scientists even characterize the U.S. as a "competitive authoritarian regime." This year's November midterm elections will be a test of whether MAGA (Make America Great Again) is a temporary political movement or an institutionalized mainstream political force. The Democratic Party will strive to maintain congressional power to prevent MAGA-oriented policies and rulings from becoming permanent.