[Trump's First Anniversary ①] 'Executive Order Barrage' Driven by America First

Over 220 Executive Orders?Nearly Four Times the First Term
Intensified Immigration Crackdowns and Tariff Pressure
Approval Ratings a Key Concern Ahead of November Midterms

'Tariffs, America First, Strong Executive.'

Donald Trump, President of the United States, marks his first anniversary in office on January 20 (local time). Armed with even more aggressive momentum than in his first term, President Trump has issued nearly 220 executive orders-almost four times as many as during his first term. He has taken the lead in implementing 'America First' through strict immigration crackdowns and tariff barriers. He has also attempted to oust Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and proposed incorporating Greenland into the United States.

The upcoming midterm elections in November are expected to serve as a referendum on the first year of 'Donald Trump’s Second Term.' Contrary to his intentions, his approval ratings remain around 40% at best. President Trump has countered by claiming, "My real approval rating is 60%," and has vowed to tighten his grip even further in the coming year. In particular, he is expected to double down on immigration policies to rally his core MAGA (Make America Great Again) supporters. However, experts predict that such moves by President Trump may actually have a negative impact on voters.

Approval Ratings Around 40%...Trump Grows Impatient

According to a compilation of foreign media reports on January 20, President Trump's approval rating at the start of the year hovers between the high 30% and low 40% range. As of December 1 last year, a Gallup poll recorded his approval at 36%, dropping to its lowest level. There was a slight rebound after the successful operation to oust the Maduro regime at the beginning of the year. In a recent public opinion poll on government performance conducted by the Associated Press and the University of Chicago’s NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, 40% rated his performance as 'positive.'

With the so-called 'midterm evaluation' approaching in November, President Trump must quickly boost his approval ratings. Elections for the U.S. House of Representatives are held every two years, and given the current approval ratings, it is highly likely that the Republican Party will find it difficult to maintain its monopoly over Congress. Nancy Pelosi, former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, who announced her retirement from politics after her current term, predicted in an interview with ABC last year that "the Democratic Party will take the majority in the House in the midterm elections." Former Speaker Pelosi sharply criticized, "The current Republican Party has rendered Congress powerless. They only do what President Trump demands."

The backlash has already manifested at the polls, as the Democratic Party has achieved sweeping victories in local and state elections. Notable examples include Zohran Mamdani, who became mayor of New York, the 'heart of capitalism,' and Abigail Spanberger, who became governor of Virginia, known as the 'home of presidents.' Mayor Mamdani was a candidate whom President Trump openly called to unify opposition against in the New York mayoral race, making his victory a symbolic blow to the Trump camp.

Facing significant legal risks, President Trump is urging Republican lawmakers to unite, warning that if the Democratic Party gains a majority in Congress, he will once again face impeachment. From the start of the year, he has met with Republican members of the House, stressing, "We must win the midterm elections," and warning, "(Otherwise) they will find a reason to impeach me, and I will ultimately be impeached." President Trump has used the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and the Department of Justice to conduct targeted investigations against his political opponents, and he appears to be aware that the tables could be turned against him.

CNN noted that the upcoming midterm elections will be an opportunity to gauge the popular influence of the MAGA movement, which was a decisive factor in Trump’s presidential victory. According to an NBC News and SurveyMonkey poll released last weekend, the proportion of strong supporters has dropped from 26% in April last year to 21% currently. Among MAGA Republicans, the percentage who said they strongly support President Trump also fell from 78% to 70%.

Negative Perceptions of the Economy Stand Out

There is strong negative public sentiment regarding the U.S. economic situation, which will be a decisive factor in the election. In a recent Wall Street Journal (WSJ) poll, 57% of respondents rated the state of the U.S. economy under President Trump as "not very good" or "bad." Forty-nine percent said the economic situation has worsened compared to a year ago, while 35% said it has improved, and 15% saw little change. Fewer than 45% expressed support for President Trump’s economic management, and about 55% said the current economy is placing a financial burden on their households.

According to a recent WSJ report, President Trump is well aware that the economy is a weak point for the Republican Party. On January 13, he visited a Ford Motor Company plant in Michigan and stated, "We have quickly achieved the exact opposite of stagflation," adding, "There is almost no inflation and growth is very strong." He expressed confidence that the U.S. economy will show solid growth this year. He also mentioned his tariff policy, saying, "I am the one who pushed for tariffs," and "Now everyone admits I was right about tariffs. I hope to win the Supreme Court case as well." The U.S. Supreme Court is currently reviewing whether the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs are permissible, with a ruling expected as early as January.

The tariff policy, along with America First, is one of the core keywords running through his second administration. From his first day in office, he announced plans to correct trade practices and signaled a review of existing trade agreements. He first announced high tariffs on traditional allies Mexico and Canada, setting the tone for a reorganization of the global trade order based on 'America First.' Europe, as well as South Korea and Japan, were not exceptions. Subsequently, President Trump designated April 2 last year as 'Liberation Day,' after which the average U.S. tariff rate was raised to 15%.

Controversy Over Hardline Immigration Policy...Deteriorating Relations with Allies

Donald Trump, President of the United States. Trump, who entered the White House for the second time last year, will mark his first anniversary in office on the 20th (local time). Photo by UPI Yonhap News

The immigration crackdown policies pushed over the past year are cited as one of the factors fueling public dissatisfaction. During his first term, President Trump opened the door to America First policies by building a wall along the Mexican border, and in his second term, he has intensified crackdowns on illegal immigration, mainly through Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), under the pretext of "harming America." The problem is that this process has involved actions with significant potential for illegality and human rights violations. A nationwide protest was sparked by the fatal shooting of a white woman in her 30s in Minnesota at the beginning of the year, but President Trump responded by expressing strong support for ICE, saying they "did what needed to be done."

Despite criticism, President Trump has doubled down on these policies. According to the fiscal year 2026 budget bill passed by Congress last July, ICE and the Border Patrol will receive an additional $170 billion (about 251 trillion won) in funding through 2029. The existing annual budget was about $19 billion, nearly a tenfold increase.

The steadily worsening relations with traditional allies such as Europe over the past year are also expected to further drag down President Trump’s approval ratings. Recently, President Trump has again advocated for the incorporation of Greenland, a Danish territory, into the United States. After he threatened to impose a 25% tariff on European allies who opposed him, European countries collectively pushed back, raising concerns about a potential transatlantic (U.S.-Europe) trade war. Even Republican Senator Thom Tillis publicly criticized this approach on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter), saying, "Responding to allies in this way is bad for America, American business, and America’s alliances."

The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), a diplomatic think tank of the European Union, noted in a recently released report that "this survey shows that the actions of the United States, once Europe’s strongest ally, are unintentionally making China great again and accelerating the advent of a multipolar international order," and pointed out that favorability toward the United States has declined in most countries.

Mukul Kesavan, an Indian historian and novelist, wrote in the British daily The Telegraph, "Trump’s second term is not an aberration or coincidence, but a period that has revealed the stagnation of U.S. hegemony entering a phase of relative decline." He assessed that tariffs and military actions are "not signs of hegemonic restoration, but of decline." He further noted, "President Trump’s administration has undermined international law and the liberal order," and "America’s claims to moral and normative leadership have also lost their persuasiveness."