[Trump's First Anniversary ①] 'Executive Order Barrage' Driven by America First

Over 220 Executive Orders?Nearly Four Times the First Term
Intensified Immigration Crackdowns and Tariff Pressure
Approval Ratings a Key Concern Ahead of November Midterms

'Tariffs, America First, Strong Executive.'

Donald Trump, President of the United States, marks the first anniversary of his second inauguration on January 20 (local time). Armed with even greater momentum than during his first term, President Trump has issued nearly 220 executive orders-almost four times more than in his first term. He has taken the lead in implementing 'America First' through strict immigration enforcement and tariff barriers. He has also attempted to oust Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and proposed incorporating Greenland into the United States.

The upcoming midterm elections in November are expected to serve as a referendum on the first year of 'Donald Trump’s Second Term.' Contrary to his intentions, his approval rating remains around 40% at best. President Trump has countered this by claiming, "My real approval rating is 60%," and has vowed to tighten his grip even further in the coming year. He is especially expected to double down on immigration policies to rally his core MAGA (Make America Great Again) base. However, experts predict that such moves by President Trump may actually have a negative impact on voters.

Approval Rating Around 40%... Trump Growing Anxious

According to a compilation of foreign media reports on January 20, President Trump’s approval rating at the start of the year has hovered between the high 30% and low 40% range. According to a Gallup poll as of December 1 last year, his approval rating dropped to 36%, hitting a record low. There was a slight rebound at the beginning of the year after the successful operation to oust the Maduro regime. In a recent public opinion poll on government performance conducted by the Associated Press and the University of Chicago’s National Opinion Research Center (NORC), 40% of respondents rated his performance as 'positive.'

Facing the so-called 'midterm evaluation' in November, President Trump needs to quickly boost his approval ratings. Elections for the U.S. House of Representatives are held every two years, and given current approval ratings, it is highly unlikely that the Republican Party will be able to maintain its dominance in Congress. Nancy Pelosi, former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, who announced her retirement from politics after her current term, predicted in an interview with ABC last year that "Democrats will become the majority party in the House in the midterm elections." Former Speaker Pelosi stated, "Currently, the Republican Party has paralyzed Congress. They only act according to President Trump’s demands."

The backlash has already been reflected in voting trends, as the Democratic Party has achieved sweeping victories in local and state elections. Notable examples include Zohran Mamdani, who became Mayor of New York-the 'heart of capitalism'-and Abigail Spanberger, who became Governor of Virginia, the 'home of presidents.' Mayor Mamdani was a candidate whom President Trump openly urged to unite the opposition against, and his victory is seen as a symbolic blow to the Trump camp.

Facing significant legal risks, President Trump has warned that if the Democratic Party gains a majority in Congress, he could face impeachment once again, and has called for Republican lawmakers to unite. From the beginning of the year, he has met with Republican House members, stressing, "We must win the midterm elections," and warning, "(If not) they will find a reason to impeach me, and I will eventually be impeached." President Trump has used the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and the Department of Justice to conduct targeted investigations against his political opponents, and he appears to be mindful that the reverse could happen to him.

CNN has pointed out that this midterm election will serve as an opportunity to gauge the public influence of the MAGA movement, which was a decisive factor in Trump’s presidential victory. According to an NBC News-SurveyMonkey poll released last weekend, the proportion of strong supporters has dropped from 26% in April last year to 21% currently. Among MAGA Republicans, the percentage who said they strongly support President Trump also fell from 78% to 70%.

Clear Negative Perceptions on the Economy

There is strong negative public sentiment regarding the U.S. economic situation, which will be a decisive factor in the election outcome. In a recent Wall Street Journal (WSJ) poll, 57% of respondents rated the U.S. economy under President Trump as "not very good" or "bad." Forty-nine percent said the economic situation has worsened compared to a year ago, 35% said it has improved, and 15% saw little change. Fewer than 45% expressed support for President Trump’s economic management, while about 55% said the current economy is placing a financial burden on their households.

According to a recent WSJ report, President Trump is well aware that the economy is a weakness for the Republican Party. On January 13, during a visit to a Ford Motor Company plant in Michigan, he said, "We have quickly achieved the exact opposite of stagflation," adding, "There is almost no inflation and growth is very high." He also expressed confidence that the U.S. economy will show robust growth this year. Referring to his tariff policies, he stated, "I am the one who pushed for tariffs," and "Now everyone acknowledges that I was right about tariffs. I hope to win in the Supreme Court case as well." The U.S. Supreme Court is currently reviewing the Trump administration’s eligibility to impose reciprocal tariffs, and a verdict is expected as early as January.

Tariff policy, along with America First, is one of the key themes running through his second administration. From his first day in office, he pledged to correct trade practices and announced plans to review existing trade agreements. He first signaled high tariffs on traditional allies Mexico and Canada, setting a precedent of 'America First' and moving to restructure the global trade order. Europe, as well as South Korea and Japan, were no exception. Subsequently, President Trump declared April 2 last year as 'Liberation Day,' after which the average U.S. tariff rate was raised to 15%.

Controversy Over Hardline Immigration Policy... Deteriorating Relations with Allies

Donald Trump, President of the United States. Trump, who entered the White House for the second time last year, will mark his first anniversary in office on the 20th (local time). Photo by UPI Yonhap News

The aggressive immigration enforcement policies pushed over the past year are cited as one of the factors fueling domestic discontent. In his first term, President Trump launched his America First agenda by building a wall on the Mexican border, and in his second term, he has strengthened crackdowns on illegal immigration, primarily through Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), under the pretext of 'protecting America.' The problem is that this process has led to incidents with significant potential for illegality or human rights violations. A nationwide protest was sparked by the shooting death of a white woman in her 30s in Minnesota at the start of the year, but President Trump responded by expressing strong support for ICE, stating that they "did what needed to be done."

Despite public criticism, President Trump has doubled down on these policies. According to the 2026 fiscal year budget passed by Congress in July last year, ICE and the Border Patrol will receive an additional $170 billion (about 251 trillion won) in funding through 2029. The previous annual budget was about $19 billion, meaning it has increased nearly tenfold.

The steadily worsening relations with traditional allies such as Europe over the past year are also expected to further drag down President Trump’s approval ratings. Recently, President Trump has once again advocated for incorporating Greenland, a Danish territory, into the United States. His announcement of a 25% tariff on European allies in response to their opposition has triggered collective backlash from European countries, raising concerns about an escalating transatlantic (U.S.-Europe) trade war. Even Republican Senator Thom Tillis publicly criticized this approach on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter), stating, "Responding to allies in this way is bad for America, American business, and American alliances."

The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), a diplomatic think tank of the European Union, also pointed out in a recently released report that "this study shows that the actions of the United States, once Europe’s staunchest ally, are inadvertently 'making China great again' and accelerating the advent of a multipolar international order," noting that favorability toward the U.S. has weakened in most countries.

Mukul Kesavan, an Indian historian and novelist, wrote in the British daily Telegraph, "Trump’s second term is not an aberration or coincidence, but a period in which the stagnation of American hegemony in relative decline has become evident." He assessed that tariffs and military actions are "not signs of hegemonic restoration, but of decline." He further stated, "President Trump’s rule has undermined international law and the liberal order," and that "America’s claims to moral and normative leadership have also lost credibility."