Yoon Heeseok: "Oh Sehoon Needs to Change His Strategy," Seo Yongju: "Jung Wonoh Is a Strong Candidate" [Current Affairs Show]

■ Broadcast: The Asia Business Daily 'So Jongseop's Current Affairs Show' (Mon-Fri, 4-5 PM)

■ Host: Political Specialist So Jongseop ■ Producer: Ma Yena

■ Guests: Seo Yongju, Director of Mac Political and Social Research Institute, Heo Heeseok, former spokesperson for the People Power Party (January 22)

※ When quoting content from this article, please be sure to cite 'So Jongseop's Current Affairs Show'.

So Jongseop: Hello, everyone. Welcome to So Jongseop's Current Affairs Show. Today, we are joined by Seo Yongju, Director of Mac Political and Social Research Institute, and Heo Heeseok, former spokesperson for the People Power Party, to have a lively discussion about various recent hot issues. Thank you both for being here.

Seo Yongju, Heo Heeseok: Thank you.

So Jongseop: How should we view the proposed merger between the Democratic Party and the Cho Kuk Innovation Party suggested by Representative Jeong Cheongrae?

Seo Yongju: This didn't just come out of nowhere. Around the time when the decision was made to pardon and reinstate Representative Cho Kuk, there was talk within the party about merging with the Cho Kuk Innovation Party to broaden the spectrum of the progressive camp. However, after returning to the Cho Kuk Innovation Party, Representative Cho Kuk handled the sexual misconduct case within the party somewhat loosely and not in line with public expectations, which caused a backlash. As a result, the Democratic Party felt quite burdened about pursuing a merger, so the plan was halted. But some time has passed, and with local elections approaching, it seems that Representative Jeong made several political decisions. There is no particular reason to oppose the merger, but the timing was significant, as it coincided with the KOSPI surpassing 5,000 and the President's press conference. Because of this, some dissatisfaction began to arise within the party, which is regrettable.

Jeong Cheongrae, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, is speaking at the Supreme Council meeting held at the National Assembly on the 26th. Photo by Kim Hyunmin

Heo Heeseok: It's a bit delicate, but I think Jeong Cheongrae is a type of ruling party leader we've never seen before. The presidential term is not even close to ending; it's only been a little over six months. Even in these six months, there have been several similar incidents. Today is no different. I said this half-jokingly, but it seems like President Lee Jaemyung is being tied down as a five-year civil servant president, while Jeong is determined to take charge of Yeouido politics himself, going his own way. President Lee Jaemyung is likely to be very displeased with this.

Seo Yongju: The presidential office's position is that the political arena is left to Representative Jeong Cheongrae, who is part of the legislative branch. So, while they have been informed, they say there was no consultation. Chief Hong Ikpyo's comment was that, from the perspective of President Lee, integration is the basic framework of the merger, which is a general statement.

So Jongseop: How do you see the future of the merger between the Democratic Party and the Cho Kuk Innovation Party?

Heo Heeseok: I think the likelihood of a merger is quite high. Basically, it's hard to find differences, and their interests align. The proportional representatives of the Cho Kuk Innovation Party have a higher chance of switching to local constituencies through the merger. This would allow them to enter the next National Assembly, and for the Democratic Party, it would expand their influence. It could make the so-called 1.5-party system, similar to Japan's Liberal Democratic Party, a reality. If the merger happens now, they may not reach the threshold for constitutional amendments, but they would become an unprecedented ruling party with enormous scale, able to act as a single bloc. There has never been such a ruling party before. So why would they refuse?

Seo Yongju: The merger is a boon for the Cho Kuk Innovation Party. If you ask who benefits more from the merger, it's definitely the Cho Kuk Innovation Party. Representative Cho Kuk previously faced a political winter due to a sexual misconduct case within the party, but now things are looking up. Joining the Democratic Party means entering a warmer embrace. Secondly, as you mentioned, the party has 12 proportional representative seats, but their prospects in local constituencies are slim if they run as the Cho Kuk Innovation Party. However, if they merge with the Democratic Party, they can share those constituencies, increasing their chances. Third, they can utilize the Democratic Party's nationwide platform.

So Jongseop: There is also analysis that Representative Jeong Cheongrae is seeking to unite the entire anti-Myung group.

Seo Yongju: That seems like a forced narrative. For Representative Jeong, there is no reason to take such a gamble.

So Jongseop: Regardless, if the ruling party unites and the opposition remains divided, wouldn't that create a much more favorable structure for local elections and so on?

Jang Donghyuk: Not Fighting the Democratic Party, But Han Donghoon

Seo Yongju: If the People Power Party were playing the typical role of the opposition, the merger between the Cho Kuk Innovation Party and the Democratic Party could have an impact. However, the People Power Party, despite being the opposition, is not fighting the ruling party but is instead engaged in internal conflict between former leader Han Donghoon and current leader Jang Donghyuk. The Jang Donghyuk leadership is not currently engaged in a power struggle with the Democratic Party. They are only fighting with former leader Han Donghoon.

So Jongseop: What do you think about the possibility that disciplinary action against former leader Han Donghoon may be put on hold for the time being?

Jang Donghyuk, the leader of the People Power Party, who has been fasting for eight days urging the acceptance of the dual special prosecution law on the Unification Church and nomination bribes, is stopping his fast and being transported to the hospital at the National Assembly on the 22nd. Photo by Kim Hyunmin

Seo Yongju: Jang Donghyuk intended to use former leader Han Donghoon as an exit strategy, but expelling him would actually free Han from his shackles. For Jang Donghyuk, Han Donghoon needs to remain a constant presence, so they can continue their symbiotic conflict. If that source of conflict disappears, Jang Donghyuk's political relevance could vanish. For that reason, I think he will keep Han Donghoon around at least until the nominations for local elections, to maximize his leverage.

Next, I was surprised that Jang Donghyuk used former President Park Geun-hye as an exit strategy for his hunger strike. To broaden his appeal, he should distance himself from the word "impeachment" and from the "Yoon Again" faction, but former President Park Geun-hye, who carries the legacy of impeachment, was used as an exit strategy for Jang Donghyuk's hunger strike? Former leader Lee Junseok became party leader by calling to "cross the river of impeachment," but now it feels like they're returning to the sea of impeachment. I think this was the worst possible move.

In my view, there is no hope. Objectively, I have given up any expectations.At this point, we have to question whether this is even a legitimate political party anymore.

This is a party that still officially opposes impeachment. How can you have a political discussion under those circumstances? You can't. That's just the current situation.

So Jongseop: The criticism between Mayor Oh Se-hoon and Seongdong District Chief Jung Won-oh regarding real estate and other issues seems to be growing more intense.I get the sense that their mutual criticism is becoming increasingly sharp.

Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon visited Seonin Shopping Center, a redevelopment area of Yongsan Electronics Market, on Thursday the 22nd to inspect the internal environment.

Seo Yongju: District Chief Jung has begun attacking Mayor Oh Se-hoon by leveraging his administrative capabilities. In response, Mayor Oh has started to defend his own administrative record. Previously, Mayor Oh was more accustomed to political defenses, but because District Chief Jung is getting into the details, Mayor Oh may actually be a bit flustered. Ultimately, District Chief Jung is focusing on his administrative strengths rather than his political profile to solidify his position, and he intends to compete with Mayor Oh on administrative grounds, not political ones. This is how he can broaden his appeal. In fact, even in Gangnam, District Chief Jung is relatively well-liked because he focuses on work rather than politics. He has crafted his narrative well.

Heo Heeseok: District Chief Jung is entering the race with clear strengths. His achievements are becoming more prominent.Although the race hasn't officially started, District Chief Jung is already leading the preliminary contest from a very advantageous position. For Mayor Oh Se-hoon, this is his fifth run, and it's likely to be his last. He is looking toward the next presidential election, but this final mayoral race has become extremely difficult for him. The challenge is that, facing an unconventional opponent, he may not know what to do next.

Additionally, there are internal party issues. There are even doubts about how he can become the candidate. The situation is so different from what was expected that he must be feeling bewildered. That's why I think he needs to completely change the game.

So Jongseop: How so?

Jung Won-oh, Mayor of Seongdong District, is shaking hands with Chung Cheong-rae, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, after their meeting at the National Assembly on December 18 last year. Photo by Yonhap News

Heo Heeseok: District Chief Jung will focus on his administrative record-what he has accomplished over 12 years. If Mayor Oh tries to compete on those terms, people will just ask, "You've been mayor for so long, what have you accomplished?" and he will lose the argument. After all, they are the ruling party. In that case, he has no chance. He needs to bring the fight to a completely different ground. For example, he could say, "I'm running in this election to achieve something greater for Seoul based on my years of experience as mayor." He should approach it as a leader of his camp, rather than just a mayor. That's how I see it.

So Jongseop: In interviews, District Chief Jung has said that he hopes for a mayor who is an administrator who can enrich the lives of Seoul citizens, suggesting that the world has changed, and is continuing along those lines.

Heo Heeseok: District Chief Jung is doing that to steer the contest in his favor. People don't expect their incomes to rise just because the mayor changes. So he keeps emphasizing his achievements-"Look at Seongsu-dong," and so on-to bring the debate to his strengths. To avoid being dragged into this, Mayor Oh, as a five-term mayor, needs to change the conversation entirely and overshadow Jung's narrative.

So Jongseop: Is there a possibility of change among the Democratic Party's pool of candidates?

Seo Yongju: If the ingredients aren't good, no matter how well you cook, the dish can't be good. The basic ingredient here-District Chief Jung-is a good one. President Lee Jaemyung, who has experience as an administrator, has praised him, and other two- or three-term lawmakers in the party may be envious because the president is giving him support. But that's the reality.

Since no single person is far ahead, the party primary won't proceed in a dull manner. However, the key point in this Seoul mayoral race will be whether the candidate is an administrator or a politician. The party will likely split along those lines.In particular, Assemblyman Kim Youngbae previously served two terms as head of Seongbuk District.

So, even if he is not currently in the spotlight, if the contest is framed as administration versus politics, I see Jung Won-oh and Kim Youngbae representing the administrative style, with the rest representing the political style. This will become the core point in the party primary.

So Jongseop: Thank you for your time.

Seo Yongju, Heo Heeseok: Thank you.