Yoon Heeseok: "Oh Se-hoon Needs to Change the Narrative," Seo Yongju: "Jung Won-oh Is a Strong Candidate" [Current Affairs Show]

■ Broadcast: The Asia Business Daily 'So Jongseop's Current Affairs Show' (Mon-Fri, 4-5 PM)

■ Host: Political Specialist So Jongseop ■ Director: PD Ma Yena

■ Guests: Seo Yongju, Director of the Maek Political and Social Research Institute; Yoon Heeseok, former spokesperson of the People Power Party (January 22)

※ When quoting this article, please make sure to cite 'So Jongseop's Current Affairs Show'.

So Jongseop: Hello, everyone. This is So Jongseop's Current Affairs Show. Today, I am joined by Seo Yongju, Director of the Maek Political and Social Research Institute, and Yoon Heeseok, former spokesperson of the People Power Party. We will be having a lively discussion on a range of recent hot issues. Thank you both for joining us.

Seo Yongju, Yoon Heeseok: Thank you. Glad to be here.

So Jongseop: What is your perspective on the proposed merger between the Democratic Party and the Cho Kuk Innovation Party, as suggested by Leader Jeong Cheongrae?

Seo Yongju: This proposal did not come out of nowhere. Around the time when the decision was made to pardon and restore the rights of Leader Cho Kuk, there were discussions within the party about merging with the Cho Kuk Innovation Party to broaden the spectrum of the progressive camp. However, when Cho Kuk returned to the Cho Kuk Innovation Party, he handled the sexual misconduct case within the party rather leniently and in a way that did not meet public expectations, which triggered a backlash. As a result, the Democratic Party found it burdensome to consider a merger, so the idea was shelved. Now, with some time having passed and the local elections approaching, it seems Leader Jeong made several political decisions. There is no reason to oppose the merger itself, but the timing coincided with the significant milestone of the KOSPI surpassing 5,000 and the President's press conference, so the announcement was somewhat overshadowed.This led to a wave of dissatisfaction within the party, which is unfortunate.

Jeong Cheongrae, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, is speaking at the Supreme Council meeting held at the National Assembly on the 26th. Photo by Kim Hyunmin

Yoon Heeseok: To be cautious, I must say that Jeong Cheongrae is a type of ruling party leader we have never seen before.The presidential term is not even near its end-just a little over six months have passed. Yet, there have already been several similar incidents, and today is no exception. Jokingly, I have said before that Jeong Cheongrae seems intent on confining President Lee Jaemyung to the role of a five-year civil servant president, while he himself takes charge of Yeouido politics and continues to go his own way. President Lee Jaemyung is likely to be very displeased with this.

Seo Yongju: The Blue House's position is that political matters are entrusted to the legislative branch, meaning Leader Jeong Cheongrae.They have stated that they were informed but did not consult on the matter. Chief Hong Ikpyo's remarks that President Lee Jaemyung supports integration and that a merger is the basic framework are general statements.

So Jongseop: What do you foresee for the merger between the Democratic Party and the Cho Kuk Innovation Party?

Yoon Heeseok: I believe the likelihood of a merger is quite high. Fundamentally, there are few differences, and their interests align. The proportional representation members of the Cho Kuk Innovation Party would have a greater chance of switching to constituency seats through the merger. This would allow them to enter the next National Assembly, and for the Democratic Party, it would expand their power base. This could potentially materialize the so-called “1.5-party system” similar to Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party.If the merger happens now, they may not reach the threshold for constitutional amendment, but they would become an unprecedented ruling party with massive influence, moving as a single bloc.There has never been a ruling party like this before. Why would anyone refuse this?

Seo Yongju: The merger would be a boon for the Cho Kuk Innovation Party. If you ask who benefits more from the merger, it is clearly the Cho Kuk Innovation Party. Previously, Leader Cho Kuk faced a political winter due to a sexual misconduct case within the party, but now he is seeing some sunlight. Joining the Democratic Party would mean entering a warm embrace. Secondly, as you mentioned, the Cho Kuk Innovation Party has 12 proportional seats, and while preparations are underway for constituencies, their chances are slim if they run under the Cho Kuk Innovation Party banner. However, if they merge and join the Democratic Party, they can share those seats, increasing their chances. Thirdly, they can leverage the Democratic Party’s nationwide platform.

So Jongseop: There is analysis that Leader Jeong Cheongrae is seeking a full consolidation of the anti-Myung group. What do you think?

Seo Yongju: That seems like a forced narrative. For Leader Jeong, there is no reason to take such a gamble.

So Jongseop: In any case, if the ruling party unites and the opposition remains divided, wouldn’t that create a much more favorable structure for the local elections and so on?

Jang Donghyuk is not fighting the Democratic Party, but Han Donghoon

Seo Yongju: If the People Power Party were playing the typical role of the opposition, a merger between the Cho Kuk Innovation Party and the Democratic Party could have an impact. However, the People Power Party, despite being the opposition, is not fighting the ruling party but is instead engaged in internal battles between former leader Han Donghoon and current leader Jang Donghyuk. The Jang Donghyuk leadership is not currently engaged in a power struggle with the Democratic Party.They are only fighting with former leader Han Donghoon.

So Jongseop: What are your thoughts on the possibility that disciplinary action against former leader Han Donghoon may be postponed for the time being?

Jang Donghyuk, the leader of the People Power Party, who has been fasting for eight days urging the acceptance of the dual special prosecution law on the Unification Church and nomination bribes, is stopping his fast and being transported to the hospital at the National Assembly on the 22nd. Photo by Kim Hyunmin

Seo Yongju: For Jang Donghyuk, former leader Han Donghoon was supposed to be his exit strategy. Expelling Han would actually free him from constraints. For Jang Donghyuk, Han Donghoon is a figure who must always be present-they are in a symbiotic conflict. If this source of conflict disappears, Jang Donghyuk’s political relevance could vanish. For this reason, I believe he will keep Han Donghoon around, at least until the nominations for the local elections, to maximize his utility.

Furthermore, I was surprised that Jang Donghyuk used former President Park Geunhye as an exit strategy for his hunger strike. To broaden his appeal, he should have distanced himself from the word “impeachment” and from “Yoon Again,” but instead, he used former President Park Geunhye, who is still associated with impeachment, as part of his exit strategy. Former leader Lee Junseok became leader by calling for the party to cross the river of impeachment, but now it feels like they are returning to the sea of impeachment. In my view, this was the worst possible move.

From my perspective, there is no hope. Objectively, I have given up any expectations.At this point, the party needs to define whether it is even a legitimate political party.

This is a party that still maintains opposition to impeachment as its official stance. How can you discuss politics in such a party? It is simply not possible. That is the current situation.

So Jongseop: It seems that the criticisms between Mayor Oh Se-hoon and Seongdong District Mayor Jung Won-oh regarding real estate and other issues are becoming increasingly sharp.

Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon visited Seonin Shopping Center, a redevelopment area of Yongsan Electronics Market, on Thursday the 22nd to inspect the internal environment.

Seo Yongju: Mayor Jung has begun attacking Mayor Oh Se-hoon using his administrative capabilities. In response, Mayor Oh has started to defend his own administrative record. Previously, Mayor Oh was more accustomed to political defense, but now, with Mayor Jung delving into the details, Mayor Oh could be caught off guard. Mayor Jung is solidifying his position based on administrative competence rather than as a political candidate, and he intends to compete with Mayor Oh on administrative grounds, not political ones, to broaden his appeal. This is because Mayor Jung is quite well-liked even in Gangnam, as he focuses on results rather than political ideology. He has crafted his narrative well.

Yoon Heeseok: Mayor Jung is entering the race with clear strengths. The perception that he has done a good job is growing.Although the campaign has not officially started, Mayor Jung is leading the preliminary round from a very advantageous position. For Mayor Oh, this is his fifth run for office, and likely his last. He is also eyeing the presidency, but this final election has become a very difficult challenge. The difficulty lies in the fact that an unpredictable contender has emerged, making it hard to know how to respond.

Furthermore, the internal situation within the party is not favorable. There are even doubts about how a candidate will be chosen. With events unfolding so differently from expectations, Mayor Oh is likely feeling bewildered. I believe he needs to completely change his strategy.

So Jongseop: How so?

Jung Won-oh, Mayor of Seongdong District, is shaking hands with Chung Cheong-rae, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, after their meeting at the National Assembly on December 18 last year. Photo by Yonhap News

Yoon Heeseok: Mayor Jung will focus on his administrative achievements, emphasizing what he has accomplished over the past 12 years. If Mayor Oh tries to compete on those terms, he will be vulnerable to criticism like, “You’ve been in office for so long-what have you actually done?” As the ruling party, they have no chance if they play on that field. Instead, they need to shift the battle to a different ground. For example, Mayor Oh could position himself as a bigger figure, running for this election to achieve even greater things for Seoul based on his administrative experience-essentially, to fight as a leader of his political camp.

So Jongseop: In Mayor Jung’s interviews, he says that Seoul citizens want a mayor with administrative skills who can enrich their lives, and that the world has changed. This seems to be the direction he is taking.

Yoon Heeseok: From Mayor Jung’s perspective, he is steering the contest to his advantage. No one expects that a change in mayors will suddenly increase the income of Seoul residents. So he is bringing in his achievements, pointing to places like Seongsu-dong as examples. To avoid being drawn into this narrative, Mayor Oh, as a five-term mayor, needs to present a completely different story to overshadow the administrative argument.

So Jongseop: Is there a possibility of change among the Democratic Party’s candidates?

Seo Yongju: No matter how skilled the chef, you cannot make a good dish with poor ingredients. The basic ingredient here-Mayor Jung-is good. President Lee Jaemyung, with his own administrative experience, has praised him. Other two- or three-term lawmakers in the party may be envious, as the President is supporting Mayor Jung, but that is the reality.

Since no single candidate is far ahead, the primary will not be a dull affair. However, the key point in the upcoming Seoul mayoral election will be whether the party chooses an administrator or a politician as its candidate.In particular, Assemblyman Kim Youngbae previously served two terms as Seongbuk District Mayor.

Therefore, even if he is not currently in the spotlight, if the contest is framed as administration versus politics, I believe Jung Won-oh and Kim Youngbae will represent the administrative style, while the others will represent the political style. This will become the core issue in the party primary.

So Jongseop: Thank you for your time.

Seo Yongju, Yoon Heeseok: Thank you.