Democratic Party Seoul Mayoral Candidates Seek a Turnaround... Fierce Competition for Third Place

Jeong Won-oh and Park Jumin Lead in Polls
Other Candidates Battle for Final Spot in Main Race

As the race for the 9th nationwide local elections is set to effectively begin on June 3, the competition for third place among the Democratic Party of Korea's Seoul mayoral contenders is intensifying. According to recent opinion polls, Jeong Won-oh, Mayor of Seongdong District, Seoul, and Park Jumin, a Democratic Party lawmaker, are leading in first and second place, while the remaining candidates are fiercely competing for the final ticket to pass the preliminary primary.

According to political sources on February 1, four Democratic Party lawmakers-Park Honggeun, Park Jumin, Kim Youngbae, and Seo Youngkyo-have officially declared their candidacy for Seoul mayor. Assemblywoman Jeon Hyunhee is scheduled to announce her candidacy on February 2, and both Mayor Jeong and former lawmaker Park Yongjin are also expected to join the race soon.

After President Lee Jaemyung publicly praised Mayor Jeong on social networking services (SNS) in early December last year, the landscape of the ruling party's Seoul mayoral candidates shifted dramatically. Mayor Jeong quickly rose to first place, and Assemblyman Park Jumin, who had been preparing for the mayoral race early on, continues to demonstrate significant competitiveness.

According to a public opinion poll commissioned by Pressian and conducted by WinGKorea Consulting on January 25-26 among 1,003 adult men and women residing in Seoul, the approval ratings for the Democratic Party's Seoul mayoral candidates were as follows: Jeong Won-oh 23.6%, Park Jumin 10.1%, Seo Youngkyo 6.1%, Park Yongjin 5.2%, Park Honggeun and Jeon Hyunhee each at 2.6%, and Kim Youngbae at 2.1%. (The survey was conducted via 100% wireless ARS, with a response rate of 5.6% and a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For more details, refer to the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.)

The fierce competition for third place is due to the possibility of a "turnaround in the final election." Although the party's nomination management committee has not yet finalized the rules for the Seoul mayoral primary, based on Democratic Party precedents, usually up to three candidates pass the preliminary primary and advance to the final round. Once in the final round, candidates can promote their platforms through various official events, including televised debates. Considering that May 13 is the candidate registration date set by the National Election Commission, about two months remain until the party primary.

A Democratic Party official commented, "If you think other candidates have given up because of the gap with the first and second place contenders, you're mistaken. Many are aiming to make a comeback by at least getting into the top three, even if it's difficult. In fact, they are working even harder to build their campaign teams."

Ultimately, the key is who can win the hearts of party members in the preliminary primary. At the end of last year, Democratic Party leader Jeong Cheongrae announced that, as part of revising the party constitution and regulations for the local elections, if there are many preliminary candidates, the first group preliminary primary would be conducted with 100% voting by dues-paying party members. The second and final round would use a preferential voting system, with 50% of the votes coming from party members and 50% from the general public.

Assemblywoman Seo, who is chasing the frontrunners, continues to hold press conferences at the National Assembly's press center and is issuing strong messages targeting party members, such as condemning the first trial verdict for First Lady Kim Keonhee.

A source planning to join a preliminary primary campaign also said, "In the preliminary round, it's less about policy and more about delivering messages that attract the attention of party members and appealing to their sentiments. It's something we're seriously considering."

Meanwhile, the Democratic Party's Central Candidate Recommendation Management Committee (Nomination Committee) held its first meeting on January 27 and began in earnest to adjust the primary rules.