[Click eStock] "Green Cross to Beat Q4 Consensus on Surging Alglio Sales... Target Price Raised"

On January 19, Kiwoom Securities analyzed that Green Cross is expected to outperform market expectations in its fourth-quarter results last year, driven by increased sales of its self-developed blood product, Alglio. The company is now likely to break its years-long streak of fourth-quarter losses and return to profitability for the first time in eight years.

Heo Hyemin, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, stated, "Fourth-quarter revenue is projected to reach 486.1 billion won (up 10% year-on-year), with an operating profit of 2.4 billion won (a turnaround from an operating loss in the same period last year)." She added, "This will surpass the market consensus of 462.6 billion won in revenue and an operating loss of 1.5 billion won." The expansion of Alglio sales has been identified as the key driver of this improved performance.

Alglio's sales had been sluggish through the third quarter, raising market doubts about achieving the annual guidance. However, in the fourth quarter, patient demand increased more rapidly than expected, reversing the outlook. Heo explained, "Annual Alglio sales are expected to reach 107 million dollars, slightly exceeding the company's previous annual guidance of 100 million dollars." On a quarterly basis, sales are projected to expand from 6 million dollars in the first quarter, 24 million dollars in the second quarter, and 26 million dollars in the third quarter, to 51 million dollars in the fourth quarter.

The most significant change is in profitability. Heo Hyemin commented, "It is encouraging that the company is expected to achieve a turnaround to profitability through its own product, Alglio, breaking the chronic fourth-quarter deficit for the first time in eight years."

The growth momentum is expected to continue in the mid- to long-term as well. This year, Green Cross's revenue is forecast to reach 2.104 trillion won, up 6% year-on-year, with operating profit projected at 94.9 billion won, representing 42% growth. The operating margin is also expected to improve to around 5%. Alglio's U.S. sales are anticipated to reach 150 million dollars in 2026, a 41% increase from the previous year.

The improvement in subsidiary performance is also cited as a positive factor alongside Alglio's growth. Heo predicted, "Along with Alglio's growth, narrowing losses at GC Cell and the blood center subsidiary ABO Holdings could contribute to improved profitability." With the easing of conflicts between medical associations and the government, the hospital and clinic specimen business is recovering, and increased plasma sales at ABO Holdings are expected to raise the operating rate of blood centers, thereby reducing the burden of fixed costs.

The vaccine business is also preparing for a rebound from a mid- to long-term perspective. Last year, Green Cross's influenza vaccine shifted from quadrivalent to trivalent, which led to a decline in average selling price. However, the company is developing a high-dose influenza vaccine with the goal of launching it domestically before 2030. In addition, the two-dose version of the varicella vaccine, considered a high-margin product, is undergoing phase 3 trials in Southeast Asia, which are expected to conclude in 2027, with a target market entry in 2028.

Improvements in raw material sourcing structures are also expected to support profitability recovery. Heo Hyemin noted, "If all eight blood centers of ABO Holdings are operating at full capacity around 2027 to 2028, about 80% of Alglio plasma can be sourced from ABO Holdings," adding, "This will contribute to improved profitability." She further commented, "It is positive that the company will secure growth drivers enabling full-scale profitability improvement starting around 2028."