Rapid Rise in Aging Population and Small Households Brings Dramatic Shift in Consumption Patterns
"Commercial Districts Must Be Redefined as Lifestyle Infrastructure"
Changes in the population structure of Chungnam have emerged as a key variable shaking the very foundation of local commercial districts and the survival of small business owners. With both population decline and aging occurring simultaneously, there is a growing consensus that policies focused solely on revitalizing distribution and commercial areas are no longer sufficient to sustain the regional economy.
A recent study has concluded that a major policy shift is needed to transform commercial districts from mere "spaces of consumption" into "lifestyle service infrastructure" that supports residents' daily lives and livelihoods.
As Chungnam has passed its population peak and entered a phase of genuine decline, analysts have pointed out that contraction and functional weakening of local commercial districts are inevitable.
On January 19, Lee Minjung, a research fellow at the Chungnam Research Institute, projected in the 401st issue of the Chungnam Report, titled "Regional Commercial Policy Directions in Response to Changes in Chungnam's Population Structure," that Chungnam's population will begin to decrease starting in 2038.
In particular, by 2030, the proportion of elderly residents is expected to increase by 54.4% compared to 2020, and the share of households with two or fewer members is projected to surpass 70%.
Additionally, purchasing frequency is decreasing, while small-quantity and nearby consumption is on the rise, and demand for medical and health-related businesses is expanding. In contrast, nighttime and weekday commercial activity is rapidly declining. These are structural changes that are weakening the very "customer-drawing function" of commercial districts.
According to Lee, as of 2023, Chungnam had 327,000 small businesses employing 449,000 people, forming a core pillar of the regional economy.
However, the average age of business owners is 57.5 years, the average year of establishment is 2008, and the average number of employees per business is only 1.14.
The average annual sales amount to just 160 million won, and the ability to absorb shocks from intensified competition, as well as rising raw material and labor costs, is lower than the national average.
Lee pointed out that the aging of small business owners and the prevalence of small-scale staffing make it very difficult to adapt to new competitive environments such as online ordering, delivery platforms, and data-driven management. This, she analyzed, is creating a vicious cycle that spreads the impact of population decline throughout the entire commercial sector.
Lee stated, "Until now, regional commercial policies have focused on 'what to sell' and 'how to increase distribution.' Going forward, the focus should shift to when, where, and how consumption occurs, and how to maintain and guarantee residents' daily needs."
The report proposed several policy alternatives: designating (tentatively named) "Chungnam Lifestyle Service Guarantee Zones" to comprehensively support residents' daily needs; introducing local co-prosperity convenience stores to address food deserts and shopping-vulnerable populations; and establishing community-based search funds and business succession support systems to link the closure and succession of businesses owned by elderly small business owners. These recommendations draw on policy examples from countries such as Japan, which have already experienced population decline.
In addition, the report suggested strategies such as designating age-friendly stores, supporting last-mile logistics, strengthening small business capabilities through digital and AI solutions, and connecting business closure to reemployment and business recovery, all as part of a co-prosperity approach to nurturing small businesses.
Lee emphasized, "Changes in population structure are not a matter of choice, but a reality already underway. If we do not redefine local commercial districts as lifestyle infrastructure that supports residents' daily lives and livelihoods, rather than just spaces for consumption, the sustainability of regional commerce cannot be guaranteed."
She added, "Only co-prosperity policies that address and respond to local issues together can safeguard the future of commercial districts and small business owners."
© The Asia Business Daily(www.asiae.co.kr). All rights reserved.
