"Experts Forecast Both Jeonse and Sales Prices to Rise This Year" [3-Minute Brief]

[At a Glance]
① "2026 Real Estate Market Outlook" Survey: "Jeonse Crisis Expected This Year"
② January Rate Freeze Forecast: "Real Estate and Exchange Rates Remain Key Financial Stability Risks"
③ Jeonse Loan Balances at Major Banks Decline: Intensifying Jeonse Shortage in Seoul Apartments

MARKET INDEX

○All three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher.

○Markets initially fell on concerns over the possibility of criminal charges against Powell, but rebounded later in the session.

○Wall Street expects the administration to eventually seek an exit to ease tensions.

TOP 3 NEWS

■ [2026 Outlook] "The move-in cliff will peak this year"... Both Jeonse and sales prices to rise [Real Estate AtoZ]

○100% of experts forecast a rise in Jeonse prices... 72% expect the increase to accelerate.
○The number one cause of Jeonse market instability: "Insufficient cumulative move-in supply"
○91.7% predict a rise in sales prices... "Jeonse and sales prices will rise together"

■ [Monetary Policy Committee Poll]① All respondents expect a rate freeze in January... Outlook for the year split: '2.50% vs 2.25%'

○The Asia Business Daily surveyed 13 domestic and international economic experts.
○Persistent instability in the foreign exchange and real estate markets is a key reason for the freeze.
○"One more cut this year" vs "Rates will remain unchanged through the year"-opinions are divided. 

■ Jeonse loans dry up... Bank Jeonse lending hits record lows

○Outstanding balances of Jeonse loans at major commercial banks are declining.
○Both tighter lending regulations and the ongoing Jeonse shortage are contributing factors.
○The government is also concerned amid criticism of accelerating shift to monthly rent.

Graphic News: [Private Lending Blossoms]① Private loans fill the gap left by banks... Korean market also opening up

○Tighter regulations on bank corporate lending are fueling the expansion of U.S. private lending.

○Firms like Blackstone, Apollo, and KKR are increasing lending over PE investment.

○Institutions like the National Pension Service are increasing investments in overseas private lending.

Money-Making Law

■ Kwon Do-hyung ordered 'judicial deportation'... May return to Korea as early as 2030

○U.S. court sentences Kwon Do-hyung to 15 years in prison and orders judicial deportation.
○He will be deported to Korea after serving half his sentence... Expected around 2030.
○Due to the vast number of victims and damages, no compensation order was issued.
☞Read the article: https://www.asiae.co.kr/article/lawtimes/2026011214444847426

■ Why operating multiple hospitals is not immediately illegal

○Simply being involved in the management of multiple hospitals by a medical corporation does not violate the 'one entity per person' rule.
○A violation is only established if there is additional evidence of unlawful exploitation.
○The Supreme Court pointed out a misinterpretation of the law and remanded the case.
☞Read the article: https://www.asiae.co.kr/article/lawtimes/2026011214460163126

■ "Using foreign patents in Korea is taxable"

○Even foreign patents are subject to tax if used in Korea.
○Actual use, not the place of patent registration, is the determining factor.
○The Supreme Court pointed out a misinterpretation of the law and remanded the case.
☞Read the article: https://www.asiae.co.kr/article/lawtimes/2026011214470271020

※ 'Money-Making Law,' a content partnership between The Asia Business Daily and Law Times, is published every Tuesday and Thursday.

Today's Key Schedule

○Domestic

06:00 Export Price Index (YoY) (December)

06:00 Import Price Index (YoY) (December)

SAMSUNG SPAC No.13 KOSDAQ subscription, final offering price 2,000 won

○Overseas

01:00 Speech by Germany's Bundesbank's Balz

02:30 Speech by U.S. FOMC member Bostic

03:00 U.S. 10-year Treasury auction

03:00 U.S. 3-year Treasury auction

22:30 U.S. Consumer Price Index (MoM) (December)

22:30 U.S. Core Consumer Price Index (MoM) (December)

◇Lunch & Evening Weather

○Lowest temperature: -4℃(▲5℃) ｜Highest temperature: -2℃(▲4℃)
○Chance of precipitation: Morning 0%｜Afternoon 0%
○Fine dust: Good in the morning｜Good in the afternoon

All the essential, high-value economic news in just 3 minutes. Published daily at 8 a.m.