US CIA Deems Maduro Ally Best Fit for Venezuela’s Interim Government

Opposition Deemed "Unable to Manage the Political Situation"
Influencing Trump's Perception

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on the 5th (local time), citing sources, that a secret report by the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) played a significant role in shifting U.S. policy from seeking regime change in Venezuela to supporting the succession of power by Vice President Delsy Rodriguez, a close aide to President Nicolas Maduro.

According to the WSJ, the CIA analyzed the internal power structure of Venezuela following a potential ouster of President Maduro and recently reported its findings to President Donald Trump. Sources said that senior officials in the Trump administration requested the analysis from the CIA and reviewed the report as part of discussions on how to address the situation in Venezuela.

Delsy Rodriguez, Vice President of Venezuela. Photo by AP Yonhap News

The report mentioned Vice President Rodriguez and two other senior officials of the Maduro regime as potential interim leaders to maintain order. While the identities of the other two were not disclosed, they are presumed to be Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello and Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino, based on the power hierarchy. However, both Minister Cabello and Minister Padrino were assessed as unlikely to cooperate with the U.S. government, as they are subject to U.S. criminal indictments.

The report also indicated that opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Maria Corina Machado, as well as Edmundo Gonzalez, who is recognized as the actual winner of the 2024 presidential election, would likely be unable to manage the Venezuelan political situation. The reason cited was the difficulty in establishing legitimacy due to resistance from the military and police loyal to the Maduro regime, as well as from drug cartels and pro-government forces.

President Trump has publicly supported Machado in the past, but recently stated, "At this point, it is very difficult for her to become a leader. She has no support or respect domestically. She is a very good woman, but she is not respected." This statement aligns with the perspective of the CIA report.

However, some experts believe that President Trump does not trust the Venezuelan opposition, based on his experiences during the crisis in Venezuela in 2019, his first term in office.

At that time, then-National Assembly Speaker Juan Guaido declared himself interim president, claiming electoral fraud in the presidential election, but failed to prompt a military defection or mass uprising. As a result, President Trump's expectations for the Venezuelan opposition have since diminished.

Juan Cruz, former Senior Director for Western Hemisphere Affairs at the White House National Security Council (NSC) during Trump's first administration, said, "President Trump sees the Venezuelan opposition as losers who have failed to deliver results," adding, "He does not find them impressive or up to expectations, so why would he entrust them with responsibility?"