[Click eStock] "Tesla Expected to Reach $2 Trillion Market Cap Within a Year"

On January 5, Wedbush Securities stated that Tesla could capture about 70% of the global autonomous driving market over the next decade and that it is possible for the company’s market capitalization to reach $2 trillion within a year. The firm maintained an ‘Outperform’ rating and set a price target of $600.

With Tesla announcing vehicle deliveries that were better than expected despite concerns, analysts say the company has demonstrated a solid foundation for future growth. In the fourth quarter of last year, Tesla delivered 418,200 vehicles (down 16% year-on-year), slightly below the market consensus of 422,900 units, but above the so-called whisper numbers, which were around 410,000 units.

Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, commented, “Given that demand has weakened further following the expiration of electric vehicle (EV) tax credits and that the European market remains a challenge, these are relatively solid results. This indicates that Tesla is gradually building a foundation for growth beyond 2026.” Ives, a renowned technology stock analyst on Wall Street known for his accurate predictions, is a long-time Tesla bull and well-known among retail investors.

Tesla’s FSD (Full Self-Driving) technology is facing difficulties in obtaining regulatory approval in Europe, making an immediate recovery in sales unlikely. Ives explained, “It is highly likely that the approval process will be completed in the first half of 2026. Better-than-expected growth figures in smaller and emerging markets may partially offset the slowdown currently seen in major markets such as China and Europe.”

Tesla’s specific business strategies and mid- to long-term outlook are expected to be further clarified during the fourth-quarter earnings conference call scheduled for the 28th. Ives asserted, “AI valuation will emerge as a key point throughout 2026. Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market cap within the next year, and in a bullish scenario, could achieve a $3 trillion market cap by the end of 2026.” He particularly described Tesla’s robotaxi ‘Cybercab’ as a “golden goose,” predicting it will be a core driver that will substantially boost the company’s AI valuation.

Ives estimated, “Tesla has at least $1 trillion in potential value from its AI and autonomous driving businesses alone. In a bullish scenario, where federal regulatory hurdles surrounding FSD and autonomous driving are resolved within the next three to six months and the autonomous driving and robotics roadmap enters full-scale mass production, the stock price could rise to $800.”