[Global Focus] Record-Breaking 'Golden Age of Metals'... Will the Shine Continue Next Year?

This Year’s Global Commodities Rally Hits Record Highs
Fed Rate Cuts and Weaker Dollar Expected
Strong Momentum Likely to Continue Next Year
Global Crises Drive Capital Toward Physical Metals

Editor's Note"In the global asset markets of 2025, precious metals were undoubtedly the 'winners'." Reuters reported on the 23rd (local time) that the prices of precious metals such as gold, silver, and platinum rose throughout the year, overwhelmingly outperforming other traditionally classified safe-haven assets. Given that this was a year marked by war, geopolitical tensions, and concerns over an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble, this trend is considered even more exceptional. As Reuters pointed out, the end of 2025 is expected to be recorded as a turning point for the metals market paradigm. Demand for gold, silver, copper, platinum, and palladium surged, resulting in a simultaneous sharp rise not only in traditional safe-haven assets but also in industrial metals. This reconfirmed the strong appeal of physical metals as safe assets during times of crisis. In contrast, Bitcoin, whose upward momentum weakened toward the end of the year, is now being tested in its status as 'digital gold.'

Metals Market Hits All-Time Highs... Now Is the 'Era of Precious Metals'

At the end of 2025, the global commodities market is experiencing an all-time high rally in both traditional safe-haven assets and essential industrial resources. On the 26th, gold futures for February delivery closed above $4,500 per ounce at $4,505 on the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX), with spot prices also peaking in the $4,520-$4,530 range. On the same day, silver futures traded above $76 per ounce, and spot prices remained in the high $70s, continuing their record-setting trend. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) noted, "It is unprecedented for the price of silver futures to surpass the price of a barrel of crude oil since West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures trading began," highlighting that "the internal order of the commodities market is being reorganized."

Industrial metals are also showing strength. On the same day at the London Metal Exchange (LME), three-month copper futures broke through $12,000 per ton for the first time, trading around that level. Platinum spot prices reached the high $2,200s per ounce, and palladium climbed to the high $1,800s, both hitting their highest levels in three years.

The market interprets the metals rally at the end of 2025 not as a 'temporary overheating' but as a revival of preference for physical assets. With both precious and industrial metals hitting all-time highs simultaneously, investors are once again choosing tangible assets.

The Financial Times (FT) reported, "It is highly unusual for the prices of key metals, including gold, silver, and copper, to reach all-time highs simultaneously," and added, "The defining feature of this rally is that both traditional safe-haven assets and industrial metals are moving in the same direction."

Why Have Prices Risen So Much?... Triple Pressure from Safe-Haven Demand, Industrial Demand, and Supply Chain Instability

The simultaneous surge in precious and industrial metals is not the result of a single factor. It is the outcome of combined macroeconomic, political, and supply chain shocks. Above all, the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate-cutting stance and the outlook for a weaker dollar have greatly increased the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold and silver. As interest rates fall, the interest income from deposits or government bonds decreases, and the opportunity cost of holding gold and silver drops. As a result, investors are turning away from volatile financial assets and focusing on safe-haven assets that better preserve value.

Giovanni Staunovo, a UBS commodities analyst, said, "Expectations for a U.S. rate cut are spreading, and demand for gold and silver remains strong," adding, "As market liquidity declines toward the end of the year, volatility in the precious metals market is increasing further."

Geopolitical tensions are also cited as a key driver of price increases. The possibility of renewed U.S.-China trade conflict, along with military and diplomatic instability in the Middle East and South America, has further strengthened the preference for safe assets. WSJ commented, "Whenever geopolitical risks become prominent, investors move first to gold and silver," and assessed, "This rally is less about speculative moves and more about crisis aversion."

For industrial metals, increased real demand due to industrial restructuring is supporting the price surge. Copper is a key material for power grids, electric vehicles, data centers, and artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. In addition, Bloomberg reported that accidents and weather disasters in major producing countries such as Indonesia, Chile, and the Democratic Republic of Congo have heightened supply concerns. FT noted, "The spread of AI and increased investment in power infrastructure are significantly boosting copper demand in the medium to long term," and warned, "Even if global GDP grows by just 2%, the copper market could face a supply shortage."

Silver also has a high proportion of industrial demand. It is used across a wide range of industries, including solar panels, electric vehicles, medical devices, and data centers, and demand is rapidly increasing in line with the energy transition and the expansion of AI infrastructure. Earlier this month, as silver prices soared to all-time highs, Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, publicly warned of the negative impact this could have across industries. CEO Musk expressed concern that the surge in silver prices could increase cost burdens throughout the manufacturing sector.

Platinum and palladium, key materials for automotive catalysts, have also surged due to supply constraints, tariff uncertainties, and the shift of some investment demand from gold. In addition, the European Union's effective withdrawal of its plan to ban internal combustion engine vehicles by 2035 has brought renewed attention to demand for automotive catalysts, further driving up prices. According to The Guardian, platinum prices have risen about 170% so far this year.

Will the Rally Continue in 2026?... Diverging Outlooks by Metal

The prevailing analysis is that the metals market is likely to maintain its strong momentum into 2026. However, as demand structures and supply conditions differ by metal, there are expectations that the magnitude and duration of the rally will vary accordingly.

Most forecasts for the gold market lean toward continued strength. Global investment bank Goldman Sachs projects that the spot price of gold could rise to around $4,900 per ounce in 2026, indicating potential for more than a 10% increase from current year-end levels.

UBS also raised its gold price outlook for mid-2026, setting $4,500 per ounce as the neutral level, and suggested that if geopolitical risks escalate, a scenario of $4,900 is possible. In particular, further upside is expected if central bank purchases and dollar weakness continue.

Silver prices in 2026 are also expected to rise further due to supply-demand imbalances and expanding industrial demand. Heraeus, the world's largest precious metals company based in Germany, forecasts silver prices in 2026 to range from $43 to $62 per ounce, noting that silver is more volatile than gold and reacts sensitively to both investment and industrial demand. While medium-term forecasts from foreign banks such as UBS, Bank of America (BoA), and Citi differ by institution, most expect the average price in 2026 to move within the $40-$65 range.

The outlook for copper is also predominantly bullish for next year. Goldman Sachs predicts copper prices will remain around $11,400 per ton in 2026, citing supply-side instability and increased infrastructure investment. Bank of America (BoA) forecasts that copper prices could reach about $11,750 per ton next year.

The platinum market is also expected to face continued supply shortages in 2026, raising the possibility of further price increases. Heraeus projects platinum prices in 2026 will range from $1,300 to $1,800 per ounce, reflecting ongoing supply shortages through 2025 and sustained industrial demand, such as for automotive catalysts.

Palladium is expected to maintain a stable price range in 2026, supported by industrial demand. New York-based precious metals dealer Bullion Exchanges anticipates that palladium supply will remain tight for the time being and forecasts next year's price at $1,300-$1,600 per ounce. However, if electric vehicle adoption expands and supply disruptions occur in major producing countries, palladium prices could rise above $1,800 per ounce.

Precious Metals Surge... Digital Gold Bitcoin Weakens

The asset that stands in stark contrast to the strength of precious and industrial metals is Bitcoin. Bitcoin has recently been trading in the $87,000-$90,000 range, about 30% below its October peak.

Reuters noted, "Despite being dubbed 'digital gold,' major cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin ended the year weaker as of year-end." WSJ pointed out, "Although Bitcoin has been called 'digital gold,' in a phase of heightened inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, capital is flowing back into physical metals."

However, some foreign media outlets such as CNBC have mentioned the possibility that Bitcoin, after a wave of year-end selling to cut losses, may attempt a rebound in January next year. Nevertheless, banks and major strategists continue to lower their target prices and are maintaining a cautious stance.