[Click eStock] "Green Cross's FDA New Drug Explodes in Growth... Peer Firm's Market Cap Hits 6.9 Trillion Won"

On December 12, Hanyang Securities analyzed that Green Cross is effectively transforming into an entirely different company due to the rapid growth of its new immune globulin (IG) drug, Aliglo, which is currently being sold in the United States.

Oh Byungyong, a researcher at Hanyang Securities, stated, "The FDA-approved new drug Aliglo is experiencing explosive growth in the U.S. market," adding, "It is now time to re-evaluate Green Cross."

Aliglo received FDA approval at the end of 2023 and began U.S. sales in the second half of 2024. Demonstrating rapid growth from the outset, it recorded sales of 36 million dollars (approximately 5.29 billion won) in the second half of last year, and by the third quarter of this year, cumulative sales had reached 56 million dollars (about 8.24 billion won). The largest growth is expected in the fourth quarter. Researcher Oh projected, "Sales in the fourth quarter alone are expected to reach about 42 million dollars (approximately 6.18 billion won), bringing this year's total sales to 98 million dollars (about 14.41 billion won)."

This pace is overwhelming even compared to previous FDA-approved Korean drugs. For example, it took SK Biopharmaceuticals' Cenobamate 12 quarters (three years) to surpass 50 billion won in quarterly sales, and Celltrion's Zympentra has yet to exceed 30 billion won per quarter even after six quarters since launch. In contrast, Aliglo surpassed 30 billion won in sales within just two quarters after launch, and is expected to exceed 60 billion won in the fourth quarter, its sixth quarter since launch.

Researcher Oh emphasized, "Next year's sales target is 160 million dollars (about 23.5 billion won), and the 2028 target is 300 million dollars (about 44 billion won)," adding, "Green Cross is aiming for blockbuster annual sales of 1 trillion won, signaling a potential overhaul of the history of Korean new drugs."

The case of ADMA Biologics, which has a similar business structure in the U.S. market, was also compared. After receiving approval for its immune globulin therapies ASCENIV and BIVIGAM in 2019, ADMA achieved sales of 154 million dollars (about 22.66 billion won) in its fourth year after launch, and 426 million dollars (about 62.68 billion won) in its sixth year, with its market capitalization growing to 6.9 trillion won. Researcher Oh pointed out, "ADMA's market share in the U.S. immune globulin market is still only 2%, indicating there is ample room for further market penetration."

Green Cross's Aliglo is positioned as a cutting-edge, high-priced IG product in the United States, and its initial growth rate is considered even faster than that of ADMA. Researcher Oh commented, "Even if Green Cross captures just 2% of the market, as ADMA has, it could generate sales in the hundreds of billions of won," adding, "However, Green Cross's current market capitalization is only 1.5 trillion won, and Aliglo's value is not reflected at all, making this a very attractive time to invest."

The company's valuation appeal is also highlighted. Based on 2026 consensus estimates, Green Cross's forward price-to-earnings ratio (PER) is 27.8 times and its price-to-book ratio (PBR) is 1.2 times, both at their lowest levels in recent years. He noted, "While the KOSPI has risen 72.3% this year, Green Cross's share price has fallen 24.7%, so there is no burden to buy," and predicted, "If Aliglo's rapid growth becomes known to the market, the valuation could recover quickly."