[Good Morning Market] "KOSPI Expected to Enter Wait-and-See Mode Ahead of U.S. Rate Decision and AI Earnings"

This week, the KOSPI is expected to enter a wait-and-see mode, fluctuating between 3,900 and 4,180 points, as it digests major events such as the U.S. benchmark interest rate decision and earnings announcements from U.S. artificial intelligence (AI)-related companies in the latter half of the week.

On the 5th (local time), a trader is working at the New York Stock Exchange in the United States. Photo by AFP

On the 8th, Kiwoom Securities forecasted the KOSPI to range between 3,900 and 4,180 points this week. The company particularly cited the following factors as driving the wait-and-see sentiment: changes in market interest rates following the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting; key economic indicators such as the U.S. October Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and China’s November import and export data; shifts in the valuation and profitability outlook for the AI sector after Oracle and Broadcom announce their earnings; and volatility in spot and futures supply and demand due to the simultaneous expiration of domestic futures and options contracts.

Han Ji-young, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, commented on market response strategies, stating, “There are no major events in the early to mid-week, but from mid-week onward, the main events will occur all at once.” He added, “It is realistic to build stock market positions by splitting bets on a daily basis.”

He also noted, “The outlook for the December FOMC could change rapidly as we monitor key indicators. However, given the employment and inflation data secured so far, it is appropriate to maintain the base scenario of a rate cut. Whether internal conflicts within the Federal Reserve, as well as conflicts between the Fed and the market, subside will be a key factor determining the stock market direction through the end of the year.”

In the U.S. stock market, attention should be paid not only to U.S. AI stocks but also to the earnings of Oracle and Broadcom, which exert significant influence over the KOSPI as well as companies like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Han stated, “Through the earnings results of these companies, the market will assess whether only semiconductor and other AI hardware companies will reap the benefits of growth, or whether those benefits will extend across the broader AI value chain-including hyperscalers, software, and power equipment companies.”

Meanwhile, on the 5th (local time), the U.S. stock market saw a limited rise as the September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index largely met market expectations, providing some relief, but a wait-and-see attitude regarding the December FOMC meeting persisted.

In the New York stock market, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 47,954.99, up 104.05 points (0.22%) from the previous session. The large-cap S&P 500 Index rose 13.28 points (0.19%) to 6,870.40, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Index climbed 72.99 points (0.31%) to finish at 23,578.13.