[Mineral War ②] "China Can Impose Critical Mineral Export Controls at Any Time"

China's Rare Earth Influence Reaffirmed
Unstable Temporary Truce With the United States
Strategic Weapons Production Also Requires Rare Earths
Controls to Extend to Technologies Like Batteries

"China's export controls on rare earths and critical minerals are a card that can be played again at any time, depending on future changes in the US-China trade environment."

Wonsung Jun, Director of the China Office at Korea Mine Reclamation Corporation (KOMIR), made this statement in a recent written interview with The Asia Business Daily.

Jun explained, "China's recent series of measures once again confirm its influence and dominance in the global rare earth supply chain," adding that the current temporary truce between China and the United States is inherently unstable.

Wonsung Jun, Director of the China Office at Korea Mine Reclamation Corporation (KOMIR)

China has tightened controls for years, "Influence on global supply chains increasing"

Previously, China announced export controls on rare earths and related products in October, escalating tensions between the US and China. However, the measure has been postponed for one year following an agreement between the two countries. Over the past several years, China has continuously revised its export regulations related to mineral resources and strengthened controls over certain types of minerals. A representative example is the "Export Control Regulations on Dual-Use Items," which took effect on December 1, 2024.

Jun stated, "Through these regulations, the Chinese government has established legal and institutional grounds to flexibly apply export controls on dual-use items in accordance with national security and international obligations." He added, "In particular, China is using this as a basis for export controls on critical minerals and is expanding the scope of such controls."

In fact, China introduced an export licensing system for gallium and germanium in 2023. In April of this year, it expanded controls to include seven types of heavy rare earth elements, and in October, it further extended regulations to rare earth-related technologies and components, thereby tightening restrictions.

Notably, China is also restricting exports of minerals essential to high-tech industries such as semiconductors, aerospace, defense, and permanent magnets, heightening instability in global supply chains. Jun pointed out, "While the uses of the controlled minerals differ slightly, most are essential raw materials and components for advanced industries such as semiconductors, aerospace, defense, and permanent magnets." He emphasized, "These measures by China are significantly impacting global supply chains by intensifying supply instability and increasing costs in industries that depend on these mineral resources."

"F-35s and submarines cannot be produced without rare earths"

Yoon Heo, Professor at Sogang University Graduate School of International Studies

Other experts interpret China's strategic intentions in a similar context. Yoon Heo, Professor at Sogang University Graduate School of International Studies, said, "China classifies rare earths as strategic assets in internal documents and clearly states its intention to use them as a policy tool that can be adjusted depending on the level of pressure from the West." He added, "Since the current US-China situation is an uneasy truce rather than a complete resolution, conflicts over rare earths could flare up at any time."

Professor Heo stressed, "The United States is highly dependent on China to the extent that it is impossible to produce F-35 fighter jets or Virginia-class submarines without rare earths." He emphasized, "The US, which regards rare earths as a national security asset, has no choice but to respond sensitively to China's rare earth control card."

Stronger controls on technologies such as batteries "Aiming to strengthen supply chain dominance"

China is not only tightening controls on mineral resources but also on related technology exports. A recent example is the addition of LFP (lithium iron phosphate) battery cathode manufacturing technology to the restricted export list.

Jun explained, "China is revising its 'List of Prohibited and Restricted Export Technologies' to include technologies related to mineral resources within the scope of control." He interpreted this as "an institutional supplement to maintain and expand China's global dominance in the secondary battery sector, where it currently holds an advantage."

Jun analyzed that this trend ultimately reflects a strategy to solidify China's dominance over supply chains. He stated, "It is an expression of China's intent to counter major countries' attempts to restructure supply chains away from China, making such efforts more difficult and strengthening its leadership in the global technology and supply chains of critical minerals."