[SCMP Column] Kim Jong-un Secures a 'Diplomatic Victory' in Beijing

For the past decade, the name Kim Jong-un has been synonymous with a "rogue state" that is isolated and economically struggling. Despite possessing nuclear weapons, North Korea has long been marginalized by the international community. However, this perception has fundamentally changed.

On September 3, at the Chinese Victory Day military parade, North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un stood alongside Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, holding separate summits with each. This event was more than a diplomatic gesture; it marked a seismic shift in North Korea's international standing. It was the first time in 66 years that the leaders of all three countries gathered together, and it was Kim's debut on the world stage with other global leaders. The Korean Central News Agency emphasized that Kim "took photos with the leaders of various countries and international organizations."

Kim Jong-un's transformation from an international outcast to an influential global player is a remarkable diplomatic achievement for North Korea. Just ten years ago, in 2015, it was not a North Korean leader but South Korean President Park Geun-hye who stood next to President Xi. At that time, President Park was building close ties with China, while North Korea remained shackled by international sanctions.

Although Kim inherited absolute power in 2011, he initially failed to elevate North Korea's international status or break free from diplomatic isolation. His nuclear provocations and belligerent rhetoric only drew global condemnation, without leading to substantive engagement with the international community.

Kim's first diplomatic breakthrough came in 2018, largely thanks to the efforts of then-South Korean President Moon Jae-in. Through President Moon's mediation, Kim became the first North Korean leader to sit face-to-face with a U.S. president. The subsequent summits with U.S. President Donald Trump in 2018 and 2019 fundamentally changed Kim's international image. He began to be recognized not as a "rogue dictator" but as a legitimate figure on the world stage.

A decisive opportunity for Kim came from an unexpected source: Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. With North Korea's borders sealed due to COVID-19 measures and diplomatic channels with Washington D.C. and Seoul frozen following the inaugurations of the Biden administration and President Yoon Suk-yeol, the war initiated by President Putin provided Kim with a strategic opening.

Isolated by Western sanctions, Russia was in desperate need of an ally that could offer tangible support. Having survived in international isolation for decades, North Korea emerged as a valuable partner for Russia. The two countries joined hands in trade, tourism, and most notably, military cooperation. While this partnership brought economic benefits to North Korea, Kim achieved a far greater milestone in June 2024: the restoration of the mutual defense treaty between Russia and North Korea. The security guarantees provided by Russia clearly demonstrated the rising stature of both Kim and North Korea. Kim now enjoys the backing of not just one, but two major powers.

Many dismissed this as mere posturing, but Kim proved the sincerity of his new alliances through action. What was unimaginable just a few years ago-North Korean troops being deployed overseas-became reality. North Korean soldiers were sent to the Ukrainian front alongside Russian forces, marking the first time North Korean troops set foot on European soil. This move went beyond simply supporting Russia; it effectively placed North Korea in direct confrontation with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

The impact of this development cannot be underestimated. In the past, North Korean provocations were typically limited to threatening statements or missile tests, followed by the usual cycle of international condemnation and sanctions. This time, however, Kim chose concrete action over threats.

Domestically, Kim continues to project a strong leadership image. Notably, he has handled the highly controversial issue of overseas troop deployment with unexpected transparency, even publicly meeting and consoling the families of fallen soldiers. These meticulously staged moments serve a dual purpose: reinforcing his image as a leader who cares for his people internally, while projecting strength and decisiveness externally.

Despite persistent Western demands for denuclearization, Kim has shown no sign of backing down. At last week's summit with President Putin in Beijing, he declared that North Korea would faithfully implement its treaty with Russia and would regard this as a fraternal duty going forward. The Beijing stage, shared with President Xi and President Putin, was the moment when Kim's strategic moves bore fruit. The international community can no longer dismiss him as merely the leader of a pariah state.

The mutual defense treaty linking Moscow and Beijing with Pyongyang means that any military conflict involving North Korea could escalate into a global confrontation involving both major powers. Given the United States' security commitments to the Korean Peninsula, such a scenario is no longer hypothetical but a tangible threat.

The series of events in China last week vividly illustrated how rapidly the international order is changing. The North Korea-China-Russia trilateral cooperation is directly challenging Western influence, not only in Asia but beyond. If the United States and its allies wish to maintain stability on the Korean Peninsula and prevent global conflict, reopening dialogue with Kim must be a top priority. Conversely, allowing Kim's influence to expand unchecked could destabilize not only regional but also global security.

Gabriela Bernal, North Korea analyst

This article is a translation by The Asia Business Daily of the South China Morning Post (SCMP) column How Kim Jong-un notched up a big diplomatic win in Beijing.