SCMP Interviews Experts
Possibility of First-Ever North Korea-China-Russia Summit Raised
As North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visits China for the first time in over six years, concerns have been raised about the strengthening of North Korea-China-Russia ties, while some also view the situation as evidence of China’s strategic dilemma.
On August 29 (local time), Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported that experts have expressed differing views regarding the attendance of the leaders of North Korea, China, and Russia at the “80th Anniversary of the Victory of the Chinese People’s War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War” (Victory Day 80th Anniversary) military parade scheduled for September 3 in Beijing.
Shi Yinhong, a professor at Renmin University of China, stated, “It is clear that the North Korea-Russia military alliance and North Korea’s dispatch of troops to the war in Ukraine have provoked China. However, Kim’s visit suggests that China has decided to turn a blind eye to these issues, or at least temporarily forgive them.”
He added, “The strategic cooperation between China and North Korea-Russia is not a matter of preference, but of necessity. As China has evaluated the United States as a strategic threat for years, cooperation with North Korea and Russia has become an indispensable pillar in the geopolitical structure.”
A Chinese expert who requested anonymity said, “China is in a strategic dilemma, and its influence over North Korea and Russia will be extremely limited.” “Many of North Korea and Russia’s actions run counter to China’s interests, but China cannot afford to abandon its cooperative relationship with them,” the expert stated.
Artyom Lukin, a professor at Far Eastern Federal University in Russia, analyzed, “Kim’s visit to China signals the normalization of North Korea-China relations, which had experienced some friction. From North Korea’s perspective, despite strengthening ties with Russia, it must still consider China, which is its ‘economic lifeline.’”
He noted that Kim’s visit also signifies North Korea once again falling under China’s sphere of influence, and essentially, this visit is a bilateral matter between North Korea and China.
On the other hand, some argue that the closer ties among North Korea, China, and Russia will complicate the United States’ calculations. Choo Jaewoo, a professor at Kyung Hee University, said in an interview, “There is a possibility of the first-ever North Korea-China-Russia summit. Even if there are no visible policy changes as a result of the summit, it could still complicate the United States’ calculations going forward.” He added, “North Korea, China, and Russia may act as a team on pending issues with the United States in the future.”
Lee Sunghyun, a senior fellow at the George H.W. Bush Foundation for U.S.-China Relations, assessed, “This military parade will serve as an official starting point for the new Cold War and will frame the situation for the world.” He continued, “China increasingly views military cooperation with North Korea and Russia as a ‘strategic asset.’ This could destabilize the regional order and shift the focus of international criticism regarding North Korea away from China and toward Russia.”
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