Only South Korea Is Falling Behind... China Set to Dominate Lithium Market in 10 Years [The Future of Lithium Hegemony] ②

China to Produce 900,000 Tons of Lithium by 2035, Surpassing Australia
South Korea Still Relies on Imports as Companies Remain Passive

There are projections that China's lithium production will surpass that of Australia, Chile, and Argentina within the next decade. While China and Japan are expanding their shares in mining and production capacity, thereby increasing their influence in the global lithium market-a key raw material for the electric vehicle battery industry-South Korea is reportedly falling behind in the competition for resource acquisition due to institutional limitations and the passive stance of its companies.

According to UK market research firm Fastmarkets on August 22, 2025, China's lithium production is expected to expand to 900,000 tons by 2035, significantly outpacing Australia at 680,000 tons, Chile at 430,000 tons, and Argentina at 380,000 tons.

Experts point out that South Korea has fallen behind in the race for resource acquisition amid these trends. Kang Cheongu, an invited professor at Inha University's Graduate School of Manufacturing Innovation, stated, "Since the late 2000s, South Korea, China, and Japan have all competed to secure resources, but only South Korea's ecosystem has collapsed, while China and Japan have steadily secured shares and mining rights." He added, "As of 2023, China accounts for more than 70% of global production, and Japan is estimated to have secured more than 40% of mining shares in Bolivia and Chile."

Currently, South Korean companies individually import the lithium they need, and the Korea Mine Rehabilitation and Mineral Resources Corporation only stockpiles a portion in preparation for potential supply chain disruptions. This is because the Korea Resources Corporation, which had previously engaged in overseas resource development, was merged into the Korea Mine Rehabilitation and Mineral Resources Corporation in 2021 due to deteriorating financial health, resulting in the loss of a legal basis for direct investment in overseas resources. As a result, resource acquisition strategies are inevitably limited due to a lack of institutional support.

Although the government has introduced support measures for private companies, the scale remains insufficient. There are overseas exploration subsidies and low-interest loan programs, but last year, the total support amounted to only 1.65 billion won. Starting this year, the budgets for domestic and international oil field development and overseas mineral resource development have been combined and set at 39 billion won, but this is still considered inadequate compared to 200.6 billion won in 2014. An official from the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy stated, "We are identifying corporate demand to ensure the budget is allocated appropriately within this year."

Meanwhile, as the budget shrinks, major domestic battery companies are also reluctant to engage in mine development. LG Chem has signed long-term supply agreements with ExxonMobil and Piedmont Lithium, and SK On has also signed a contract with ExxonMobil. South Korean companies appear to be relying more on long-term purchase agreements rather than direct development.

Cho Hongjong, a professor of economics at Dankook University, commented, "Currently, South Korean companies do not have a well-established value chain related to eco-friendly initiatives and are struggling to compete with China on price." He added, "At this point, due to the oversupply of lithium, there are few companies able to make long-term investments. Therefore, the government should provide at least minimal support from an economic security perspective to help companies maintain their competitiveness amid supply chain risks."