Import Prices Rise for the First Time in Six Months... Will This Fuel Upward Pressure on Consumer Prices?

July Export and Import Price Index and Trade Index (Preliminary)
Import Prices Rise 0.9% from Previous Month
Driven by Increases in Both International Oil Prices and the Won-Dollar Exchange Rate
Divergent Trends in August So Far... Further Monito

Import prices turned upward for the first time in six months. This was due to both rising international oil prices and an increase in the won-dollar exchange rate, both of which have a significant impact on import prices. However, experts note that it remains to be seen whether this will develop into a sustained upward trend that could exert upward pressure on consumer prices.

According to the "Export and Import Price Index and Trade Index (Preliminary) for July 2025" released by the Bank of Korea on the 14th, import prices (based on the Korean won) rose by 0.9% in July compared to the previous month. Compared to the same month last year, they fell by 5.9%. This result was attributed to increases in both international oil prices and the won-dollar exchange rate. Last month, the average monthly price of Dubai crude oil was $70.87 per barrel, up 2.3% from $69.26 in June. The average won-dollar exchange rate also rose by 0.6%, from 1,366.95 won in June to 1,375.22 won in July.

By usage, raw materials-mainly mining products such as crude oil-rose by 1.5% from the previous month. Intermediate goods, including computers, electronic and optical devices, and chemical products, increased by 0.6% compared to the previous month. Capital goods and consumer goods each rose by 0.5% from the previous month.Excluding exchange rate effects, import prices based on contract currency increased by 0.3% from the previous month. Compared to the same month last year, they fell by 6.2%.

There is analysis that it remains to be seen whether the rise in import prices will continue as a trend. Import prices are typically reflected in consumer prices with a lag of one to three months, so a sustained upward trend in import prices could exert upward pressure on consumer prices. Lee Moonhee, head of the Price Statistics Team at the Economic Statistics Department 1 of the Bank of Korea, explained, "International oil prices and the won-dollar exchange rate, both of which have a significant impact on import prices, have shown divergent trends so far in August." He added, "While the price of Dubai crude oil has declined slightly compared to the previous month, the won-dollar exchange rate has increased." From August 1 to 12, the price of Dubai crude oil fell by 1.1% compared to the previous month's average, while the won-dollar exchange rate rose by 1.0% from August 1 to 13 compared to the previous month's average. Lee also noted, "Given the ongoing uncertainties both domestically and internationally, it is necessary to continue monitoring the situation to determine whether a sustained upward trend will develop."

Last month, export prices rose by 1.0% compared to the previous month, as the won-dollar exchange rate increased and prices for computers, electronic and optical devices, as well as coal and petroleum products, went up. Compared to the same month last year, export prices fell by 4.3%. By item, prices for agricultural, forestry, and fishery products rose by 4.2% from the previous month. For manufactured goods, computers, electronic and optical devices, as well as coal and petroleum products, led a 1.0% increase from the previous month. Based on contract currency, export prices in July rose by 0.4% from the previous month and fell by 4.3% compared to the same month last year.

The export volume index, which shows changes in export and import trends, rose by 8.2% in July compared to the same month last year. This was driven by increases in computers, electronic and optical devices, and transportation equipment. The export value index rose by 4.3%. Over the same period, the import volume index increased by 7.8% due to higher volumes of computers, electronic and optical devices, as well as machinery and equipment. The import value index rose by 1.8%.

The net terms of trade index for goods in July rose by 2.1% year-on-year, as the decline in import prices (-5.6%) was greater than the decline in export prices (-3.6%). The income terms of trade index rose by 10.5%, as both the net terms of trade index (2.1%) and the export volume index (8.2%) increased.