Enrollment Quota Set at 502,755, Down 0.2%
Declining Population Leads to Fewer University Entrants
80% of University Budgets Depend on Student Tuition Fees
The enrollment quota for private universities in Japan has declined for the first time in 22 years due to the effects of low birth rates.
On August 9, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Nikkei), citing an announcement by the Japan Private School Promotion and Mutual Aid Corporation under the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, reported that the enrollment quota for private universities in Japan for the 2025 academic year (April 2025 to March 2026) is set at 502,755 students, a decrease of 0.2% compared to the previous year. This marks the first time since the 2003 academic year, in 22 years, that the enrollment quota for Japanese private universities has entered a downward trend.
Japanese university entrance exam candidates are taking the Common Test for University Admissions. Photo by Kyodo News
Nikkei analyzed that this is because universities are suspending recruitment due to the declining birth rate, and the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology is also strengthening its support for university mergers and similar measures.
'Tuition-Dependent' Financial Crisis at Japanese Private Universities Worsens
The Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology estimates that the number of university entrants in Japan, which reached 627,000 in 2021, will peak at 630,000 in 2026, then decrease to 460,000 by 2040 and to 410,000 by 2050. The population under the age of 18 in Japan is currently 1.1 million, but it is projected to fall to 820,000 by 2040. As a result, university revenues are also expected to decline significantly. Japanese private universities rely on student tuition fees for 80% of their budgets. The Asahi Shimbun reported that 136, or about one-fifth, of the 571 private university corporations are experiencing financial difficulties.
According to the Japan Private School Promotion and Mutual Aid Corporation, in the 2024 academic year, among Japan's 598 private universities and 272 junior colleges, 354 four-year universities?nearly 60%?and 249 junior colleges?over 90%?failed to fill their enrollment quotas. This is the highest figure on record.
Meanwhile, as of 2024, Japan's total fertility rate (the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime) was 1.15, the lowest ever recorded. The number of births last year was approximately 687,000, the lowest since statistics began in 1899. If this trend continues, Japan's current population of about 124 million is expected to decline to 87 million by 2070.
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