[Real Investment] "Semiconductors and Shipbuilding to Benefit" Trump OBBBA's Impact on Korean Stock Market

With the final passage of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA)"?a key policy initiative of U.S. President Donald Trump?through Congress last week, the domestic stock market is seeing mixed fortunes across different sectors. While the semiconductor and shipbuilding industries are expected to benefit, there are concerns that the secondary battery (battery) sector will inevitably experience a decline in demand due to reduced subsidies.

According to FnGuide on July 9, major domestic securities firms, including Korea Investment & Securities and Yuanta Securities, have maintained their "overweight" recommendations on the shipbuilding sector in reports released since July 4 (local time), when OBBBA passed the U.S. Congress.

Kang Kyungtae, a researcher at Korea Investment & Securities, stated, "Investment for the revival of the shipbuilding industry is beginning," adding, "It is now time to officially start cooperation with shipbuilders in allied countries, including Korea." Specifically, he predicted that Hanwha Ocean and HD Hyundai Heavy Industries, which have completed preparations to enter the U.S. merchant and naval ship markets, will begin to secure substantial orders starting in the second half of the year.

Yuanta Securities also maintained its overweight recommendation, noting that the trigger for a rise in U.S.-related shipbuilding stocks remains valid. Kim Yongmin, a researcher at Yuanta Securities, identified the most significant increase in the OBBBA as "additional procurement budgets for two destroyers and one nuclear submarine, among other naval vessels" under the section "Strengthening Department of Defense Shipbuilding Resources." He further pointed out the possibility of Korean shipbuilders winning contracts for block construction of naval vessels, stating, "The problem remains that local conditions make it difficult to build ships even with increased funding."

The semiconductor sector, which benefits from expanded tax credits, is also considered one of the biggest beneficiaries of OBBBA. Lim Sojeong, a researcher at Eugene Investment & Securities, commented, "Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix will be able to reduce the burden of facility investments in the U.S.," and added, "Among materials, parts, and equipment companies, Hanmi Semiconductor and Eugene Technology are expected to supply equipment for Micron's high-bandwidth memory (HBM) capacity expansion."

However, concerns remain for clean energy, battery, and electric vehicle sectors, as these eco-friendly areas are expected to be negatively affected. Cho Hyunryul, a researcher at Samsung Securities, explained, "Compared to the House bill in May, the final version includes the early reduction of electric vehicle subsidies (by about three months) and the restoration of subsidies for solar power third-party ownership (TPO) businesses as the most significant changes," diagnosing that "a mid- to long-term decline in demand is inevitable." He noted that while the revival of TPO subsidies is a short-term positive for solar companies, "there will be front-loaded demand in the second half of the year, but this will lead to a slowdown in growth from 2026 onward."

Jung Haechang, a researcher at Daishin Securities, emphasized, "We need to focus on the long-term benefits that have been overshadowed by policy uncertainties highlighted during the OBBBA legislative process." He assessed, "In the case of shipbuilding, defense, nuclear power, and artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductor sectors, the direction of U.S. industrial policy is clear," and added, "As policy expectations have already been reflected in this year's leading industries, a period of short-term overheating correction and supply absorption was inevitable. However, once a reasonable valuation level is reached, there will be opportunities to increase exposure."