[Debate] The History of Violence Repeats Itself

U.S. President Donald Trump has ultimately pulled the trigger on an attack against Iran. This came just two days after he reiterated his commitment to a diplomatic solution, saying he would postpone any military action for two weeks. Trump's unpredictable approach to "negotiation" has swiftly turned into the reality of "war."

The second Trump administration, which began ambitiously with the promise to "Make America Great Again," has faced an extremely unstable political and economic environment from the outset of its term. This was evident on June 14. In Washington, D.C., a military parade was held to celebrate President Trump's birthday and the anniversary of the founding of the U.S. Army. On the same day, "No King" protests against his immigration policies erupted simultaneously across the United States. It is reported that about 400,000 people participated in over 2,000 demonstrations that day, seriously undermining his legitimacy and leadership.

The same is true economically. From the beginning of his presidency, President Trump made the revival of manufacturing the core task of rebuilding the American economy. However, due to his consecutive tariff shocks, U.S. consumer prices in May rose to 2.4%, exceeding the Federal Reserve's target, and the Energy Information Administration warned of a decline in crude oil production in 2026, signaling a worsening of key economic indicators. As a result, the Federal Reserve raised its year-end consumer price inflation forecast from 2.7% to 3%, while lowering its projection for U.S. economic growth this year from 1.7% to 1.4%.

As the overall situation continues to deteriorate for the Trump administration, suspicions have arisen that the attack on Iran was carried out as a card to reverse the situation. Setting up an external enemy at a moment when the domestic political base is unstable is a governing tactic that has been repeated throughout history.

This approach has precedent. A clear example is former President George W. Bush’s decision to launch the Iraq War in 2003. Behind his push for the invasion of Iraq was a clear political motive to divert domestic anxiety outward. In fact, President Bush's approval rating jumped by 20 percentage points immediately after the invasion.

The justification for the war is also telling. The Trump administration argued that it had no choice but to attack Iran to prevent it from acquiring nuclear weapons. They cited claims from Israeli intelligence agencies that Iran had developed delivery systems and components for nuclear weapons and was on the threshold of completing a nuclear weapon. However, according to The New York Times, many intelligence agencies, including those in the U.S., believe that Iran has not yet entered the stage of full-scale nuclear weaponization.

The same was true in 2003. President Bush invaded Iraq on the grounds that Saddam Hussein's regime possessed weapons of mass destruction (WMD). However, it was later revealed that WMDs did not exist. In a 2008 interview with ABC World News, President Bush said that his biggest regret during his presidency was the failure to obtain accurate information about whether Iraq possessed WMDs.

For this reason, there are concerns that the recent strike against Iran could become a repeat of the Iraq war, which resulted in significant sacrifices without clear justification. Senator Bernie Sanders, a leading figure in the American progressive movement, criticized the U.S. attack on Iran as similar to the 2003 Iraq war, saying, "That war was based on lies."

History repeats itself. This is one of the proverbs of the Western world, and it has been proven by countless recurring patterns in human life. British playwright and Nobel laureate George Bernard Shaw once said, "If history repeats itself and we cannot foresee the repetition, what does that say about our inability to learn from experience?" The Iraq War, which resulted in the deaths of 4,500 American soldiers and trillions of dollars in losses, serves as a lesson that unjust actions inevitably come with a price.