[Welcome Back BTS] BTS Returns After Military Service, Reigniting the 5 Trillion Won 'BTS Economy'

All Members Discharged in June, Album and Tour Activities Expected to Resume
HYBE Stock Price Surpasses 300,000 Won
Cumulative Economic Impact Reaches 56 Trillion Won Since Debut

BTS is performing their last complete group stage before enlistment at the 2030 Busan World Expo bid support concert 'BTS in BUSAN' in October 2022. BigHit Music

BTS, the group that has represented K-pop on the global stage, will return as a complete group for the first time in about three years after completing their military service. Both domestic and international markets are showing high expectations for their return, which is projected to generate an annual economic effect of up to 5 trillion won.

On June 10, after RM (real name Kim Namjoon) and V (Kim Taehyung) completed 18 months of military service, approximately 1,500 people, according to police estimates, gathered near the HYBE headquarters in Yongsan, Seoul. Many overseas fans from Japan, the United States, China, and other countries were also present, with some holding banners and messages of support while shedding tears. On June 11, Jimin (Park Jimin) and Jungkook (Jeon Jungkook) were also discharged. Jin (Kim Seokjin) and J-Hope (Jung Hoseok) completed their service in June and October last year, respectively, while Suga (Min Yoongi), who is serving as a social service agent, is scheduled to be discharged on June 21.

The last group album BTS released was the anthology album "Proof" in June 2022, and their final full-group stage was "Yet to Come in Busan," held in Busan in October of the same year.

◆What is the economic impact of BTS's discharge?= Amid recent analyses that the K-pop album market has stopped growing and has started to decline, there are expectations that BTS's return could serve as a turning point for the market's recovery.

According to a report published by Hyundai Research Institute at the end of 2018, BTS's annual economic value exceeds 4 trillion won, equivalent to the value created by 26 mid-sized companies. The production inducement effect was calculated at 4.14 trillion won, and the value-added inducement effect at 1.42 trillion won. This accounts for about 0.3% of Korea's GDP, which is about half the GDP contribution of Korean Air (0.7%).

BTS's global popularity has led to an increase in foreign tourists and exports of consumer goods. The report estimated that since BTS's debut in 2013, about 796,000 foreign visitors have come to Korea each year to see them. As a result, annual overseas sales of Hallyu-related consumer goods such as clothing, cosmetics, and food increased by about $1.117 billion (approximately 1.3 trillion won), accounting for about 1.7% of total consumer goods exports.

The report also projected that if BTS's popularity continued for five years, the cumulative production inducement effect by 2023 would reach 41.86 trillion won, and the value-added inducement effect would reach 14.3 trillion won.

K-pop album exports also grew alongside BTS's activities. Since 2018, export figures have steadily increased, reaching a record high of $230 million in 2022. In particular, the years when BTS was most active globally?2018, 2020, and 2021?saw especially sharp increases in exports.

The Bank of Korea analyzed that BTS's activities in North America were one of the key factors behind the $114.7 million cultural content surplus in the first quarter of 2019. When BTS's English single "Dynamite" topped the Billboard Hot 100 in 2020, the Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism and the Korea Culture & Tourism Institute estimated its economic ripple effect at about 1.7 trillion won.

Forbes, the American business magazine, estimated BTS's annual contribution to Korea's GDP at about $4.65 billion (around 5 trillion won), noting that this is equivalent to the annual production value of nearly 500,000 Korean workers. Bloomberg described BTS as contributing 0.3 percentage points to Korea's annual economic growth, while foreign media such as the BBC reported that "two years without BTS would result in trillions of won in losses to Korea's GDP."

News of BTS's return has also driven up the stock price of their agency, HYBE. The stock, which hovered around 200,000 won earlier this year, has risen more than 15% this month, surpassing 300,000 won.

Group BTS members RM and V, who completed their active duty service in the Army and were discharged after their full term, are saluting the press on the 10th at Sinbuk-eup Sports Park in Chuncheon, Gangwon Province. Photo by Yonhap News

◆Full-group comeback in the second half of the year... Annual sales expected to exceed 2 trillion won= Jung Hwa, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, projected in HYBE's 2024 Q4 earnings report that "BTS's new full album in the second half of 2025 and their world tour in 2026 will contribute to revenue growth." In fact, during BTS's "Love Yourself: Speak Yourself" world tour in 2019, Big Hit Music's concert revenue reached 191.1 billion won. The Korea Culture & Tourism Institute analyzed in a report that the economic effect of a single BTS concert could be as high as 1.2207 trillion won.

There are also estimates that BTS's expected annual revenue is about 1.87 trillion won. Kim Hyunyong, a researcher at Hyundai Motor Securities, predicted, "We expect sales of 820 billion won in the second half of 2025 and 1.05 trillion won in the first half of 2026."

The industry believes that even if BTS does not release a full album in the second half of the year, they are likely to release a single, marking the start of their full-group activities. This move is expected to be meaningful in terms of the symbolism of their return and the solidarity of their fandom.

Strong performance in the global market is also anticipated. Music critic Jeff Benjamin commented, "K-pop is often criticized as being factory-made music, but BTS has proven the opposite." He added, "They have consistently communicated with fans through social media, and their messages and performances, which capture the worries, struggles, and comfort of youth, have resonated with people all over the world."