'Emperor of Wall Street' Dimon Says Recession Risk Remains Despite Tariff Reductions

"Impossible to Predict the Scale of Recession...
U.S.-China Dialogue Is the Right Move"

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, often referred to as the "Emperor of Wall Street," recently pointed out that despite the recent mutual tariff reductions between the United States and China, there is still a possibility that the U.S. economy could enter a recession.

On the 15th (local time), during an interview with Bloomberg TV at the JPMorgan Annual Global Market Conference held in Paris, France, Dimon said, "We would like to avoid such a situation (recession), but at this point, we are not ruling out the possibility."

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, is speaking at the JPMorgan Annual Global Market Conference held in Paris, France, on the 15th (local time). Photo by AP

He added, "If a recession does occur, we do not know how severe it will be or how long it will last."

The United States and China agreed during high-level talks in Geneva on May 10-11 to each reduce their triple-digit high tariffs by 115 percentage points for a period of 90 days. Following this, Michael Feroli, Chief Economist at JPMorgan, stated that while he still considers the risk of recession to be high, it is below 50%. Dimon expressed hope that the recent easing of U.S.-China tensions will continue, saying, "I believe it is the right thing to step back from such measures." He added, "This is to enable communication and dialogue."

Dimon has continuously warned of the possibility of a recession since the U.S.-China tariff war began. In last month's letter to shareholders, he also urged for the swift resolution of uncertainties caused by tariffs. However, his remarks in this interview were somewhat more moderate than his previous stance.

Dimon positively assessed the recent truce between the U.S. and China, but pointed out that some clients are postponing investments due to volatility and uncertainty caused by tariffs. He also noted that some of the repercussions from higher tariffs could lead to a decrease in investment in the United States. Dimon said, "There will be a bit of that (decline in U.S. investment). We are upsetting a lot of people. When we meet them, they say, 'We won't buy Kentucky bourbon whiskey (a specialty product from Kentucky, U.S.) anymore.'"

However, Dimon said that this impact would not be strongly felt. He asked, "Is the United States a bad place to invest?" and answered, "No. Even if all the money were invested in one country, in the end, it would be the United States."

Regarding the recent efforts by the European Union and the United Kingdom to seek cooperation, Dimon offered a positive outlook. He said, "The two sides now have an opportunity to build a strong relationship while recovering to some extent from the disaster caused by Brexit (the U.K.'s withdrawal from the EU)."