[Global Focus] Canada-Ukraine Parallel Theory? "Seeing Putin in Trump Toward Canada"

Trump Views Canada Like Ukraine
Numerous Cases of U.S. Intervention in the Americas
"Annexation of Canada Is Zero Possibility Without Military Occupation"

The United States and Canada, which have maintained close political, economic, and social ties for a long time, are now experiencing conflicts due to U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff bombshells and territorial sovereignty threats. In particular, as President Trump has repeatedly stated his intention to incorporate Canada as the 51st state of the United States, anti-American sentiment among Canadian citizens is spreading. Experts have analyzed that President Trump's approach to Canada is strikingly similar to that of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who invaded Ukraine.

Trump to Ukraine: "You have no cards" ? Repeated to Canada

On the 27th of last month (local time), Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney declared after a special cabinet committee meeting to respond to the Trump administration's tariffs, "The long-standing relationship with the United States, based on deep economic integration and close security and military cooperation, is now over." He added, "We will fight against U.S. tariffs with retaliatory measures that inflict maximum damage on the U.S. while minimizing damage to ourselves." This expressed his intention not to succumb to President Trump's 'tariff threats.'

Subsequently, U.S. Vice President JD Vance maintained a tough stance during a press Q&A while visiting Greenland, stating, "The Canadian leadership is threatening with retaliatory tariffs, but as President Trump said, Canada has no 'cards.' There is no way for Canada to win the trade war with the United States."

As Vice President Vance mentioned, President Trump has indeed said that Canada has no negotiation cards. Notably, in this process, President Trump drew a comparison between Canada's position vis-?-vis the United States and Ukraine's situation. On the 21st of last month, while mentioning Canada in the Oval Office of the White House, Trump said, "Some people have 'no cards.' I used this expression a few weeks ago." He applied the same statement he made to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, telling him, "You have no 'cards,'" to Canada as well.

Regarding this, David French, a columnist for the U.S. daily The New York Times (NYT), pointed out, "To President Trump, Canada is like Ukraine. He clearly wants to dominate Canada. His intention is to make Canada nominally independent but effectively a vassal state of the United States."

He continued, "Trump's foreign policy can be explained by the theory of 'Manifest Destiny,' which is the belief that God has destined the United States to expand across the entire North American continent. From this perspective, Ukraine and Canada have committed the same crime: refusing the feudal lord's demand for submission," he analyzed.

David French also explained that Trump's approach to Canada can be understood through the concept of 'spheres of influence.' Just as President Putin seeks to establish a sphere of influence over Eurasia and bring Ukraine under Russian influence, President Trump aims to exert dominance over the American continent. He said, "According to this theory, great powers like the United States have their own domains of control. The U.S. has had past conflicts with Canada and has attempted military interventions in Latin America many times. The problem is that spheres of influence are inherently unstable because great powers try to determine the extent of their influence through violence." He warned, "We already know well from history what happens when the strong try to dominate the weak."

Trump's behavior structurally similar to Putin's... "Predator's gaze"

AFP Yonhap News

There are also criticisms that President Trump is trying to align U.S. foreign policy with Russia's. William Saletan, a columnist for the conservative U.S. media The Bulwark, said, "President Trump seems to identify himself with an imperialist like President Putin. The way Trump talks about annexing Canada is disturbingly similar to Putin's logic for annexing Ukraine."

In particular, it is analyzed that both Presidents Trump and Putin emphasize that Canada and Ukraine are economically overly dependent on them. Before invading Ukraine in February 2022, President Putin claimed, "Ukrainian colleagues repeatedly requested financial support from Russia," and "The loans and economic and trade privileges Russia provided to Ukraine from 1991 to 2013 totaled $250 billion. However, Ukraine tried to maintain relations with Russia by enjoying rights and privileges without fulfilling any obligations."

Similarly, in January, President Trump said aboard Air Force One, "Canada has used the United States for years," and "Without U.S. subsidies, Canada practically does not exist. Canada is completely dependent on us, so it should become a state of the United States." He also stated in a World Economic Forum (WEF, Davos Forum) speech, "Canada has been a very tough opponent for the U.S. over the years. It is unfair that the U.S. should have a deficit of about $200 billion to $250 billion against Canada."

William Saletan commented, "President Trump mentioned the exact same figures that President Putin used to justify the invasion of Ukraine. Of course, he did not say he would invade Canada, but instead threatened to economically destroy Canada." He added, "When Trump reveals his fantasy of eliminating the border between the U.S. and Canada, his tone is eerily similar to when Putin talks about the border between Russia and Ukraine. He looks greedily at Canada, Greenland, the Gaza Strip, and the Panama Canal with the same gaze as Putin has toward Ukraine. It is the gaze of a predator," he criticized.

Experts unanimously agree that even if President Trump equates Canada with Ukraine, it is practically impossible for Canada to become the 51st state of the United States. Max Boot, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), said, "According to Canadian law, dissolving the country requires unanimous consent from the Canadian Senate, House of Commons, and all provincial legislatures. Since about 90% of Canadians oppose joining the United States as a state, this is a story that cannot even begin. Unless the U.S. militarily surprises and occupies Ottawa, the possibility of Canada becoming the 51st state is virtually zero."

Senior fellow Boot added, "It is hard to think of a more meaningless and self-destructive foreign policy than the one Trump has provoked against Canada. He may now realize the weaknesses of the strategy he has employed. With Canada facing a general election on the 28th, rather than shrinking from his threats, nationalist backlash is emerging," he said.