[Political Spotlight] Constitutional Court's April 4 Ruling Approaches, Political Circles 'Tense'... Where Is the Future Political Landscape Headed?

As Constitutional Court's Impeachment Ruling Approaches, Heated Debate Unfolds
Ruling Party Hopes for Dismissal or Rejection
Opposition Expects 8:0 Decision
Presidential Office Calmly Prepares for Return

The Constitutional Court's ruling on President Yoon Seok-yeol's impeachment trial on the 4th is a turning point that will determine the direction of the chaotic political situation. Around the Constitutional Court, strict security measures centered on the police are in place to prepare for any possible incidents on the day of the ruling. The current situation, which has affected the entire country to the extent that it is described as a psychological civil war, is expected to have aftershocks regardless of the outcome.

Not only the ruling and opposition parties but also the Presidential Office are closely monitoring the Constitutional Court's decision. The People Power Party is hoping for a dismissal or rejection of the impeachment, citing two reasons: the 'prolonged deliberation' and the 'not guilty verdict for Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party.' Six Constitutional Court justices are required to uphold the impeachment. The ruling party believes dismissal is possible, referencing the Constitutional Court's dismissal of the impeachment against Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, who is also acting president. Some also argue for rejection.

The Presidential Office is calmly awaiting the Constitutional Court's decision. Since President Yoon may return to work after 111 days of suspension, the office staff are preparing to normalize operations. A senior official from the Presidential Office stated, "Even after the impeachment ruling date was set, Chief Secretary Jeong Jin-seok has been presiding over morning meetings with senior secretaries as usual, reporting and updating on current issues." With President Yoon's return, responding to the trade war initiated by the United States is expected to become the top priority, and active consideration of measures to revitalize the stagnant domestic economy is anticipated. However, it is also known that preparations for an upheld impeachment decision are underway behind the scenes.

On the 2nd, two days before the impeachment ruling of President Yoon Seok-yeol, police bus barricades were installed near the Constitutional Court in Seoul. On the 1st, the police notified the groups camping in tents in front of the Constitutional Court that they would create a vacuum zone within a radius of about 100 meters around the court. Photo by Yonhap News

The opposition parties, including the Democratic Party, believe the impeachment will be upheld. The opposition sees it as unlikely that all five major issues (△Unconstitutional and illegal declaration of emergency martial law △Unconstitutional issuance of Martial Law Proclamation No. 1 △Obstruction and attempted takeover of National Assembly activities △Attempted takeover of the National Election Commission △Orders to arrest politicians and legal professionals) will be dismissed or rejected. A senior Democratic Party lawmaker said in a phone interview, "If the martial law declared on December 3rd was legitimate and the National Assembly's subsequent lifting of martial law was illegal, would the people remain silent?"

The situation after the Constitutional Court's ruling is also a focus of attention. If the impeachment is upheld, an early presidential election will be held, likely on June 3rd. The opposition is expected to continue primary discussions centered around the leading candidate, Lee Jae-myung. The ruling party faces a more complicated situation. Supporters of President Yoon may direct their anger toward the current leadership. The primary is expected to be contested mainly between the pro-impeachment faction emphasizing presidential election competitiveness and the anti-impeachment faction emphasizing clarity. However, there is also a possibility that resistance to the Constitutional Court's decision could emerge as a variable in the primary.

If the impeachment is dismissed, President Yoon will return to office. In his final statement to the Constitutional Court, President Yoon expressed his intention to "focus on foreign relations while significantly delegating domestic affairs to the Prime Minister" and to "concentrate on constitutional amendments and political reform in the latter half of his term." However, some political analysts predict that the chaotic political situation will deepen. Kim Yong-min, the Democratic Party's senior deputy floor leader, claimed on KBS radio that "a second martial law will be imposed immediately."

Rejection is also possible. If the Constitutional Court dismisses the impeachment on procedural grounds, the opposition is expected to pursue re-impeachment.