Swift Moves Following Greenland's General Election
U.S. Influence Expected to Grow After Independence from Denmark
As President Trump declared his intention to annex Greenland to the United States, the successive visits of high-ranking U.S. officials to Greenland have attracted attention. Even after the visit of Trump Jr., President Trump's eldest son, in November last year, visits by senior American officials have continued.
The delegation included high-level figures such as Vice President JD Vance and his wife Usha Vance, National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, and Energy Secretary Chris Wright. Their stated reasons for the visit were to tour the Pituffik Space Base, a U.S. military facility in Greenland, visit historical sites, and attend a dog sled race. However, experts express skepticism, noting that the National Security Advisor would have no reason to visit purely for tourism. In fact, Trump Jr.'s visit was officially for tourism, but he met with pro-American politicians locally, which sparked controversy.
The timing of the visit is also sensitive given Greenland's political situation. In the Greenlandic general election held on November 11, the Greenlandic Democratic Party, which opposes annexation by the U.S., won. Previously a minor party with about 10% of the vote, the Democratic Party became the largest party with 30% of the vote in this election.
The sudden rise in popularity of the Democratic Party is attributed to the Trump administration's announcement of annexation plans. While other parties in Greenland had advocated for full independence from Denmark, after the U.S. annexation attempt, residents shifted their support to the Democratic Party out of concern that independence might lead to U.S. annexation. In this context, the mass visits of high-ranking U.S. officials and their contacts with pro-American figures could be perceived as political maneuvering, prompting dissatisfaction from both the Danish government and the Greenlandic autonomous government.
Greenland residents' public opinion is strongly negative toward annexation by the United States. According to a joint opinion poll conducted by Danish and Greenlandic media in January, 85% of residents said they did not want annexation by the U.S., and about half regarded President Trump's annexation proposal itself as a security threat.
While some believe that U.S. citizenship could economically benefit residents, the greater concern among Greenlanders is security. Greenland is currently a quiet region in terms of security, but if annexed by the U.S., there is anxiety that it could become the frontline for the United States.
Since the 19th century, the U.S. has repeatedly expressed interest in purchasing Greenland, primarily as a geopolitical shield to defend against Nazi Germany or the Soviet Union. If Greenland were annexed by the U.S., the peaceful image would be shattered, and concerns are rising among residents that Greenland would become the center of Arctic hegemony competition among the U.S., Russia, and China.
The Danish government's delicate positionThe Danish government holds a delicate stance regarding Greenland's annexation issue. Without President Trump's pressure, parties supporting independence likely would have won the Greenlandic general election, but due to U.S. pressure, the moderate Democratic Party won, stalling the independence movement.
From Denmark's perspective, which has been somewhat opposed to Greenlandic independence, this outcome is politically advantageous. Since Greenland became an autonomous territory in 1979, Denmark has continuously provided financial support and sought to take the lead in developing mineral resources that would be exposed as Greenland's ice melts due to global warming. Denmark wanted to strengthen its control over Greenland but refrained from direct intervention to avoid provoking the independence movement. However, public opinion has now shifted to a mood of "protect Greenland from the U.S.," leading some to assess that the current situation is not unfavorable for the Danish government.
Possibility of diplomatic resolution rather than military conflictThe prevailing view is skeptical about the possibility of military conflict between the U.S. and Denmark. Since Denmark is a NATO member, the U.S. would have to withdraw from NATO to militarily occupy Greenland, which could turn all of Europe against the U.S., making it practically impossible.
Within the U.S., there is growing opinion that it would be easier to pursue annexation after Denmark grants Greenland independence. However, for now, it is expected that the U.S. will likely move toward a free association agreement similar to those with Pacific island nations, whereby the U.S. provides economic aid in exchange for military and economic use of Greenland.
Since President Trump's annexation intent was revealed too early, ironically leading to the victory of annexation opponents in Greenland's general election, the U.S. strategy regarding Greenland is considered to have hit a snag. The international community is closely watching how this issue will unfold amid the complex relations among Denmark, Greenland, and the United States.
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