Victor Cha: "Quiet Crisis in the ROK-US Alliance... US Likely to Pressure Flexibility of USFK"

If President Yoon Returns to Office, "Crisis Will Worsen"
Korea's Political Crisis Can Only Be Resolved Through a Presidential Election

Victor Cha, a Korea expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in the United States, diagnosed on the 27th (local time) that "the Korea-US alliance is currently facing a quiet crisis."

On the same day, Cha stated this during an online discussion hosted by CSIS regarding the situation in Korea, mentioning the US Department of Energy's designation of Korea as a 'sensitive country,' the lack of high-level communication between Korea and the US, the 'passing over' of Korea during US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth's Asia tour, and tariffs.

Cha also predicted, "Elbridge Colby will become the Deputy Secretary of Defense for Policy, and they (Colby and Defense Department officials) will almost certainly pressure Korea for 'strategic flexibility' regarding the US Forces Korea."

Referring to Korea's defense cost-sharing (the portion of USFK stationing costs borne by Korea), which is expected to see a significant increase demand from the Trump administration, and the North Korea issue, Cha warned, "No one talks about it properly, but the Korea-US alliance is in a 'quiet crisis.'"

Cha further argued that Korea's current political crisis will not be resolved unless a presidential election is held.

He stated that if President Yoon Seok-yeol, who was impeached due to the declaration of martial law, returns to office, "the crisis will worsen," predicting that "protests will break out in the streets and the National Assembly, and all political energy will be devoted to blocking President Yoon's exercise of authority as much as possible."

Michelle Ye Hee Lee, Tokyo bureau chief of The Washington Post (WP), who participated as a panelist, claimed that Korea's response was "quite chaotic" after it was recently revealed that the US Department of Energy designated Korea as a 'sensitive country,' and that such confusion would not have occurred if there had been a clear national leader as there is now.

She also reported that regarding Hyundai Motor Group's announcement on the 24th of a $21 billion (about 31 trillion won) investment plan in the US amid US tariff pressures, "some people say it was a surrender rather than standing up to the US, unlike other countries such as the European Union and Canada."