[The Second Take] Say 'Amen' for Politics That Moves Forward with Doubt

Papal Elections and Political Dynamics
Why the Chosen Successor Often Defies Expectations

The pope appoints cardinals who have the right to vote for his successor during his lifetime. The media and critics often predict that they are likely to choose someone resembling the current pope. They criticize the appointments as being made through unfair means to achieve the desired outcome. However, historically, the results have often been the opposite. A representative example is Leo XIII, who held the papal seat for 25 years starting in 1878. He modernized the Catholic Church by promoting scientific biblical research while initiating social education. He also pursued policies that carefully reconciled with secular democratic systems, reviving the 'Holy Alliance' with Catholic monarchies. The unquestionable candidate to take over was Mariano Rampolla, who had served as Secretary of State. However, the person elected in the 1903 conclave was Giuseppe Sarto (Pius X), the Archbishop of Venice, who was criticized by the Italian government as uncompromising. He opposed all attempts to reconcile Catholic thought with the new century and silenced many theologians, excommunicating some.

Movie 'Conclave' Still Cut

Why did the cardinals with voting rights choose Sarto despite knowing this tendency? It was not only because Emperor Franz Joseph I of Austria opposed Rampolla's candidacy. With the disappearance of the polarization, there was an opportunity to reconsider the issue, and the majority of voters simply thought it was time to slow the pace of change. A similar situation occurred when Angelo Roncalli (John XXIII) succeeded Pius XII in 1958. Pius XII initially pursued a 'thinking church' but became skeptical of change in his later years. Conversely, Roncalli sought to modernize the church and was proactive enough to convene the Christian ecumenical council that Pius XII had rejected. The momentum for change continued into the conclave. Among the fifty-five cardinals, very few truly understood what could be accomplished with Roncalli. However, a framework was established that a successor different from the previous pope should be chosen.

This tendency is called the pendulum law in conclave psychology. The creative period in most papacies does not exceed ten years. Vigorous passion turns into repetition, and new ideas are blocked by the frameworks set by the Vatican bureaucracy. When a long-standing institution reaches its later stages, some degree of dissatisfaction inevitably arises. The cardinals have addressed this in two main ways. One is to wait. The side that lost in the previous conclave does not disappear. For example, those who supported Rampolla gathered again in 1914 to elect Giacomo della Chiesa (Benedict XV) as pope. The other is to find a candidate who can correct the flaws. They look for someone who can resolve issues that the previous pope could not or who can moderate excessive problems. If the same methods continue, it takes years to bear fruit, so they consider it time to balance things differently.

Movie 'Conclave' Still Cut

The film Conclave deeply explores this cycle through Cardinal Lawrence (Ralph Fiennes). The cardinals he witnesses during the voting process are stained with ambition, scandal, and intrigue. This is not much different from our recent political situation. Of course, the difference lies in somehow resolving conflicts to produce progressive results. Director Edward Berger conveys this difference through Lawrence’s words: "Certainty is the greatest enemy of harmony and tolerance. If there is only certainty, faith is unnecessary. So let us pray for a pope who constantly doubts himself."