"Even Without Increasing the Quota, 3,161 Doctors Will Be Oversupplied by 2035"
"Healthcare Service Delivery and Payment Compensation Systems Must Be Improved"
Medical associations claim that increasing the quota for medical schools will lead to an oversupply of up to 11,481 doctors by 2035. They stated that for healthcare reform, innovation in the healthcare service delivery system and payment compensation system is necessary, rather than increasing the number of medical students.
Ahn Deok-seon, Director of the Medical Policy Research Institute of the Korean Medical Association (right), is delivering the opening remarks at the Medical Policy Forum held on the afternoon of the 27th at the Korean Medical Association Hall in Yongsan-gu, Seoul. Photo by Choi Tae-won
On the 27th at 2 p.m., the Korea Medical Association's Medical Policy Research Institute held a medical policy forum at the KMA Hall in Yongsan-gu, Seoul, where they presented the "Doctor Supply and Demand Outlook Due to Medical School Quota Increase in 2025." This presentation was the first doctor supply and demand forecast released since the new executive team led by Chairman Kim Taek-woo took office. The KMA maintains its stance that it will not engage in dialogue until the government presents educational measures for medical students.
Park Jung-hoon, lead researcher at the KMA Medical Policy Research Institute and a presenter at the forum, argued that the government's claim of a shortage of 10,000 doctors by 2035 is based on unrealistic assumptions about working days. He said, "The government assumed 265 working days based on the general public standard, but if we apply the 289.5 working days of active doctors from the 2020 National Doctor Survey, an oversupply of 3,161 doctors is expected by 2035 even without increasing the number of doctors. If the government’s plan to increase the quota is implemented, an oversupply of 11,481 doctors is projected."
He emphasized that if the government's healthcare reform package is applied, the demand for doctors will further decrease due to reduced healthcare utilization. Park said, "Patient out-of-pocket expenses have a negative correlation with doctor demand and healthcare utilization. If patient out-of-pocket expenses are increased through reforms such as real-loss insurance reform and healthcare utilization decreases, doctor demand will further decline."
Professor Hong Yoon-chul of the Department of Preventive Medicine at Seoul National University College of Medicine, the author of the report "Study on the Adequacy of Doctor Workforce for Preparing Future Society," which the government cited when announcing the increase of 2,000 medical students, also raised his voice on the day. He said, "The Ministry of Health and Welfare extracted parts of my paper as a basis for policy, but the conclusion states that increasing the number of doctors alone will not solve healthcare problems unless regional disparities in healthcare are addressed."
Professor Hong suggested that the direction of healthcare reform should be innovation in the healthcare service delivery system and payment compensation system. As an example of innovation in the healthcare service delivery system, he cited the "Primary Care Physician System for the Elderly." He explained, "A study assumed that 60% of the elderly population would be covered by the primary care physician system, leading to a 20% reduction in inpatient medical expenses and a 10% reduction in outpatient medical expenses due to improved health status. If healthcare advances by 0.5% annually and 60% of the elderly receive primary care management, even without increasing the quota, from 15 years later, the medical school quota could be reduced by 3% annually without causing a shortage of doctors until 2070."
As an example of innovation in the healthcare service payment compensation system, he mentioned value-based fees. This is a method of paying fees based on the quality and outcomes of services rather than the quantity of medical services. Professor Hong said, "In Massachusetts, USA, a pilot project for value-based fees resulted in about a 20% reduction in both healthcare service volume and costs. If the patient ratio is 50% for value-based fees and 50% for fee-for-service, in some scenarios, there may be concerns about needing to reduce the number of doctors immediately."
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