[How About This Book] 30% Changes the World... The Miracle of the 'Magic Third'

Malcolm Gladwell's "The Designers of Tipping Points"
The "Overstory" at the Top of the Trees Also Affects the Ground
Diversity Excluded, Obsessed with Privilege
Change Becomes Possible When Outsiders Make Up One-Third
Contagion Follows Rules... It Can Be Predicted and Controlled

"When we look at contagious events, we inherently assume that there are aspects of their pathways that are uncontrollable and unmanageable."

Malcolm Gladwell, who has published numerous bestsellers such as Blink and Outliers, denies this notion in this book and argues that contagion is fully controllable. By analyzing the common characteristics of contagion, it can be sufficiently controlled. The author claims that environmental influences on individuals are stronger than individual traits.

[How About This Book] 30% Changes the World... The Miracle of the 'Magic Third'

Differences in regional medical practices in the United States are one such example. From 1998 to 2012, the use of catheters, a heart surgery tool, was highest in Boulder, Colorado. In Boulder, the probability of using a catheter when a heart attack patient occurred was 75%. In contrast, in Buffalo, New York, adjacent to Canada, the probability of using a catheter in the same situation was only 23%. Why is there such a large difference within the same country? The author analyzes that Buffalo, adjacent to Canada, was influenced by Canada’s reluctance toward expensive treatments. The atmosphere in Canada, where private insurance is not as developed as in the U.S., affected Buffalo across the Niagara River. The author claims that even doctors who frequently used catheters in other regions naturally change within a year when they move to Buffalo. "Communities have their own unique stories, and those stories are highly contagious."

The author refers to such stories as ‘Overstory.’ Overstory refers to the upper part of trees forming a forest, and the author explains, "The size, density, and height of the overstory influence the behavior and development of all species on the much lower ground." The overstory exists outside our consciousness and exerts a powerful influence on individuals.

A case of a chain of suicides in a wealthy neighborhood in the U.S., called ‘Popular Grove’ in the book, is an example. Over a 6-week interval, four high school students took their own lives, and from 2005 to 2016, among 2,000 enrolled students, the number of suicide deaths reached 12. This exceeds the average suicide rate of 1 to 2 per 2,000 students over 10 years. Most of the deceased were students raised in affluent family environments and were considered perfect in many ways. The deaths of such honor students instilled in other students the thought, "If that child couldn’t survive in this environment, how can I survive?" The author points out this as the downside of a ‘monoculture’ that excludes diversity and is obsessed with a sense of privilege.

The reason for the existence of the women’s rugby team at Harvard University can also be interpreted from the monoculture perspective. The author argues, "Sports teams are a means for Harvard University to maintain group ratios." Harvard actively uses athletic recruitment to maintain the proportion of white upper-class students above a certain level. According to the author, the racial ratio of Harvard students maintains a white majority. From 2006 to 2014, the proportion of people of color?including African American, Hispanic, and Asian?remained in the 10% range. The author points out that 30% of enrolled students were admitted through special categories such as athletic recruitment, legacy admissions, presidential recommendations (children of wealthy families), and children of faculty and staff, and especially the high proportion of athletic recruits is used to maintain the proportion of wealthy white students. The author explains, "Whites overwhelmingly dominate Harvard’s sports teams."

So, what efforts are needed to break down the existing overstory? The author explains the need for a ‘Magic Third,’ where outsiders make up one-third of the group. The proportion within an organization needs to be 30% for voices to carry weight. In many white-dominated areas across the U.S., when the black resident ratio exceeded 30%, it frequently rapidly surpassed the majority. The author analyzed, "In any group, when the initially insignificant proportion of outsiders reaches between one-quarter and one-third, dramatic changes occur."

The proportion of women on boards of directors must also exceed 30% for the so-called ‘female effect’ to be possible. According to a survey interviewing 50 female executives in major U.S. companies, even women in high positions found it difficult to make their voices heard in male-majority organizations. When a woman was alone, she stood out as a woman, but as an individual, she was often treated as invisible. One female executive said, "One is lonely, two become friends, but three become a team."

The author emphasizes that contagion has clear rules and boundaries and, because it is influenced by the overstory, it is sufficiently predictable and controllable. "The overstory changes in size and shape when it reaches a tipping point. We can fully identify when and where that tipping point appears. ... We can either let immoral people wield that tool, or we ourselves can use it to create a better world."