Germany's Far-Right Party Doubles Approval Rating, Reasons for Its Rise [AK Radio]

SPD Suffers Major Defeat Amid Inflation and Anti-Immigration Sentiment
Trump Administration Openly Supports AfD

In an early general election held in Germany, the center-right coalition party secured a victory, resulting in a change of government. Notably, in this election, the 'Alternative for Germany (AfD)' party, classified as a far-right party, surged to become the second-largest party, causing significant shifts in the German political landscape. This unprecedented level of support for a far-right party is recorded as a historic first in post-war German political history.

The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU) coalition won with 29% of the vote, while AfD secured second place with 20% support. The ruling Social Democratic Party (SPD) was pushed to third place, suffering a major defeat. This reflects a sharp decline from the SPD's initial 65% approval rating at the start of its term, interpreted as a strong judgment by the German public on policy failures.

Experts cite the energy crisis and inflation following the Ukraine war as the main background for this election result. Since the outbreak of the Ukraine war, Germany has actively participated in sanctions against Russia, cutting off imports of Russian oil and gas. Due to the gas pipeline infrastructure built in cooperation with the Soviet Union since the 1960s, the impact of energy supply disruptions was greater in Germany than in other European countries.

The surge in energy prices severely affected the entire German industry. Given Germany's manufacturing-centered economic structure, rising energy costs weakened corporate competitiveness, leading to increased unemployment and slowed economic growth. According to the German Chamber of Commerce, over 30% of small and medium-sized enterprises had to reduce production or halt factory operations due to the energy crisis.

On the 23rd (local time), Friedrich Merz, leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which won with 29% of the vote in the German general election, is greeting supporters. Photo by Reuters and Yonhap News.

Moreover, the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, completed just before the war, was also shut down, causing energy prices to soar and fueling public dissatisfaction. Germany's decision to supply tanks and weapons to Ukraine, despite having restrained military expansion since Nazi Germany, sparked controversy. Consequently, public opinion grew in favor of Germany seeking alternatives beyond the one-sided sanctions policy against Russia, similar to Eastern European countries that conducted separate gas and security negotiations with Russia.

Immigration was another key issue. The increase in terrorism and crime by illegal immigrants emerged as a safety concern in German society. Particularly, the social integration of refugees from Syria and Afghanistan failed to progress adequately, intensifying cultural conflicts. Amid growing backlash against the SPD's open immigration policies, the AfD, which advocated for abolishing immigrant acceptance policies, gained substantial support.

According to analyses by German polling agencies, 68% of voters expressed dissatisfaction with the current government's immigration policies, and 75% responded that stronger border controls were necessary. This shift in public opinion contributed to AfD's rise and weakened the position of traditional centrist parties.

On the 23rd (local time), Alice Weidel, co-leader of the Alternative for Germany (AfD), held a press conference immediately after the general election. AfD secured 20% of the vote in this election, rising to become the second-largest party. Photo by Reuters and Yonhap News.

A notable point is the involvement of the United States. Former President Donald Trump and Tesla CEO Elon Musk publicly expressed support for AfD, and former Vice President Mike Pence caused controversy by meeting the AfD leader at the Munich Security Conference instead of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. This is analyzed as reflecting the U.S.'s diplomatic interests related to Ukraine peace negotiations.

The peace negotiation proposal presented by the Trump administration largely accepted Russia's existing demands and aimed to accelerate normalization of relations between the West and Russia. While the SPD strongly opposed this, the CDU-CSU coalition took a relatively flexible stance, and AfD advocated for halting support to Ukraine and conducting separate negotiations with Russia, presenting policies close to the U.S. position.

Currently, the CDU-CSU coalition has failed to secure an outright majority, but the possibility of a coalition government with AfD is being raised. Since the 'firewall principle,' which has tabooed coalitions with far-right parties based on lessons from Nazi Germany, was broken during the passage of immigration law amendments, the formation of a conservative grand coalition cannot be ruled out.

These political changes have raised concerns in the international community. In particular, controversies are growing over the influence of prominent figures on social networking services (SNS) openly endorsing specific parties and their impact on elections in various countries. This represents a new form of political intervention, different from traditional interference, and unlike the fake news dissemination or attacks on politicians mainly used by Russia or China, it is evaluated as a new type of political involvement utilizing SNS and the influence of public figures.

This German general election is regarded as a case demonstrating how economic crises and security anxieties can lead to changes in the political landscape. Especially as the energy crisis and immigration issues combined to trigger the rise of far-right parties, it is seen as a harbinger of political shifts across Europe. Additionally, the exercise of international influence through SNS poses new challenges to the democracies of various countries.