[How about this book] "Trump says if Fed uses 'power'... dictatorship"

Eight Global Scholars, Including Yuval Harari, Predict Trump’s Second Term
"Prefers Weak Dollar for Export Advantage... Strong Dollar Aversion"
US-China Trade War... An Era of 'Power Dominance' May Arrive

"As an economist, my concern is that Trump might even undermine the independence of the Federal Reserve (Fed) to lower the value of the dollar. If the Fed's independence is compromised, I believe it would be no different from authoritarian rule." - Paul Krugman, Professor at the City University of New York

"Trump strongly dislikes trade imbalances. Therefore, there is growing concern that he might strip the Fed of its independence to manipulate the dollar's value." - Jeffrey Sachs, Professor at Columbia University

"If Trump returns as president, there is a possibility he might directly order the Fed to cut interest rates to lower the dollar's value." - Jim Rogers, Chairman of Rogers Holdings

[How about this book] "Trump says if Fed uses 'power'... dictatorship"

Superforecast Trump 2.0: The New Era is a book in which eight global scholars predict how the second Trump administration, returning to the White House after four years, will impact the United States and the world order. Most experts express concerns about the possibility of Trump undermining the Fed's independence from an economic perspective.

Trump shows extreme aversion to a strong dollar. Last April, when the dollar reached its highest level against the yen in 34 years, he referred to it on social media as a "disaster for America." The reason he prefers a weaker dollar is simple: it benefits U.S. exports. While a weaker currency does favor exports, the side effects of an artificially devalued currency are significant. For example, rising prices of imported raw materials could trigger inflation within the U.S. and suppress consumption. Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, criticized, "Trump does not seem to have a deep understanding of economics. He also seems unaware of what is truly good for America."

Due to Trump's preference for a weaker dollar, a trade war with China appears inevitable. However, a trade war between the two economic giants, the U.S. and China, benefits neither side and only causes turmoil in the global economy. Paul Krugman, Nobel Laureate in Economics in 2008, sharply criticized, "The U.S.-China trade war happened because a person lacking information and awareness became president."

Another reason Trump favors a weaker dollar is that he believes it benefits himself and the U.S. John Bolton, who served as National Security Council (NSC) advisor during Trump's first administration and observed him closely for 17 months, pointed out, "He has no philosophy. He judges everything solely based on whether it benefits him."

Trump's re-election likely signals an era dominated by the logic of power. Trump believes that as the President of the United States, the world's most powerful position, he can do anything for the benefit of America and himself. While previous U.S. presidents revered the Fed's independence, Trump thinks he can manipulate the Fed to achieve a weaker dollar according to his will.

The question of personal benefit and the logic of power also raises concerns about the potential destabilization of the rule of law in the U.S. Former advisor Bolton warned, "Trump will try to use the Department of Justice to eliminate his opponents," adding, "Even without legal grounds, he will likely say, 'Just indict them.'" Ian Bremmer, chairman of the consulting firm Eurasia Group, also warned, "An unprecedented constitutional crisis could occur since the Civil War."

Trump is likely to apply the logic of power to the international order as well, causing chaos. Already, countries including South Korea, Japan, and NATO members are worried that conflicts over defense cost-sharing will intensify due to his re-election. Trump views the U.S. helping other countries' defense with its own budget as a loss. Bolton pointed out, "Trump does not understand the essence of alliances well, and even the U.S.-Japan alliance risks falling into unexpected situations."

Trump's perspective may also influence the Ukraine war. Since he believes there is no reason to use U.S. funds to defend other countries, there are forecasts that the Ukraine war might end this year. In fact, Trump pledged upon taking office that he would "end the Ukraine war within 24 hours." If the war ends soon, there is speculation that the eastern Donbas region of Ukraine could be incorporated into Russian territory.

Yuval Harari, professor at Hebrew University of Israel, expressed deep concern about the possibility that the end of the Ukraine war under current circumstances could lead to Vladimir Putin's victory. This would mean the collapse of the fundamental principle of the international order that no country can invade or annex another based on power. Harari warned, "If the Ukraine war ends with Russia's victory, it means the world order collapses, ending an era of peace and prosperity, leading to a vicious cycle of skyrocketing global military spending and the formation of strategic military alliances." He added, "An increase in military spending means cuts in welfare spending, resulting in a worse world."

Professor Harari suggested that it is desirable for the U.S. and Europe to deepen their involvement in the war until Russia is deterred from invading, and only then begin peace negotiations. He emphasized that the combined GDP of the U.S. and Europe is more than 20 times that of Russia, arguing that there is sufficient economic capacity to support Ukraine.

The preface of this book begins with the sentence, "It overturned the expectations of experts and the general public." This means that a person contrary to the values and philosophies previously pursued was elected president of the United States. This situation conveys the message that the world will fall into chaos and uncertainty over the next four years.