"Artificial Intelligence, 10% Total Productivity Increase Over 10 Years" [American Economic Association 2025]

2025 American Economic Association (AEA) Annual Meeting
US Academia Demonstrates AI Productivity Innovation

"If artificial intelligence (AI) influences half of economic activities and improves the productivity of these activities by 20%, total productivity will increase by 10% over a period of more than 10 years." (Erik Brynjolfsson, Stanford University Professor)

Eric Brynjolfsson, Professor at Stanford University. San Francisco - Special Correspondent Haeyoung Kwon

At the '2025 Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association (AEA)' held in San Francisco, USA, from the 3rd to the 5th (local time), economists focused on the productivity innovation effects of AI.

Professor Brynjolfsson, in his presentation at the 'Economic Impact of AI' session, stated, "The productivity-enhancing effects of AI have been proven through various studies," introducing several research findings. Among these, one study showed that the productivity of call centers with access to large language models (LLMs) improved by 30-35%. Professor Brynjolfsson explained, "Customer satisfaction scores and the happiness of call center employees increased," adding, "The likelihood of employees quitting the company decreased."

Since the emergence of generative AI 'ChatGPT' in 2022, expectations about the future transformed by AI have spread, and multiple academic studies have demonstrated that AI is indeed contributing to productivity improvements.

Professor Brynjolfsson said, "The productivity growth rate of countries worldwide, including the United States, has slowed since the 1990s, remaining in the 1% range since 2005," adding, "However, thanks to AI, productivity has significantly increased over the past 1-2 years, reaching a 3.2% growth rate in the third quarter of last year." He expressed hope, saying, "Although it will take time for the full effects to appear, productivity could recover to the levels of the 1990s or even higher."

The tech industry also emphasized the need for AI application to spread across all economic activities, closely watching AI's productivity-enhancing effects.

Jamie Teevan, Chief Scientist at Microsoft (MS), said, "In less than two years, people are already utilizing AI in their existing work environments." James Manyika, Senior Vice President at Google, stated, "AI needs to be applied across many countries and sectors," adding, "It is not enough to integrate AI into only some parts of the economy."

Susan Ash, Professor at Stanford University. San Francisco - Special Correspondent Haeyoung Kwon

However, concerns were also raised that while AI can reduce costs through productivity increases, it might take away human jobs.

Susan Athey, Stanford University Professor, said, "If AI model costs become cheaper, costs in all fields such as education, healthcare, training, and elderly care could decrease," but she also warned, "However, we cannot rule out a bad scenario where AI models take jobs, AI model prices rise, consumer benefits decrease, and consumer prices do not fall."

Even within the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), attention is being paid to AI's productivity innovations. Mary Daly, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said in an interview with Korean reporters on the 4th (local time), "We want to know whether the growth momentum of the U.S. economy is based on productivity increases," adding, "We are examining whether it is supported by technological innovations in companies, such as generative AI."