[Polpol News] Impeachment Crisis Presidential Election Barometer: "Lee Jae-myung Overwhelmingly in 1st Place, but..."

Lee Jae-myung Overwhelmingly Leads in New Year Polls
Hong Joon-pyo Shows 2nd Place Trend Alongside Han Dong-hoon
Early Presidential Election Variables Include Judicial Risks and Conservative Realignment

As the impeachment trial of President Yoon Seok-yeol progresses, the possibility of an early presidential election has increased. While Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, enjoys overwhelming support in opinion polls, Mayor Hong Joon-pyo of Daegu has emerged within the ruling party amid the impeachment turmoil.

Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, is announcing his position on the political situation, including the impeachment motion against Acting President Han Duck-soo, at the National Assembly on the 27th. Photo by Kim Hyun-min

On the 2nd, summarizing the next presidential candidate opinion polls for the New Year, Lee received support ranging from the low 30% to 40%, securing first place. Considering that the support rates of the second-tier candidates are in the single digits, this is an overwhelming trend.

However, some point out that compared to the overwhelming support for President Yoon’s impeachment, Lee’s approval rating is limited. Political circles believe, "If the early presidential election situation begins, the conservative base, which has been indecisive, may consolidate around the second-tier candidates."

Conservative Voter Sentiment After Impeachment?

Until now, within the ruling party, the structure was a one-on-one confrontation between Lee and former People Power Party leader Han Dong-hoon, but this was shaken drastically amid President Yoon’s impeachment turmoil. Meanwhile, Mayor Hong has risen to the second tier alongside former leader Han. Recently, through social media (SNS) and other channels, Mayor Hong has distanced himself from President Yoon and taken a stance representing conservative voters. This is interpreted as a move to gather conservative public opinion that is lost amid the impeachment situation. Although he has fallen from power, former leader Han remains a strong conservative political candidate, and since he led the lifting of martial law on the 3rd of last month, there remains a possibility of his resurgence after the conservative camp reorganizes. Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon is also mentioned as a top candidate within the ruling party. Mayor Oh, who voiced support for President Yoon’s impeachment, has the advantage of potential centrist expansion.

Following them, Assemblyman Ahn Cheol-soo and former Assemblyman Yoo Seung-min have appeared as next presidential candidates in various polls. Both have strengths in the centrist demographic and the metropolitan area. Moreover, both have shown critical attitudes toward President Yoon even before the martial law period, which is also notable. Depending on whether the conservative base treats them as ‘traitors’ or as ‘pillars’ of conservative reconstruction, the political landscape could change. Additionally, in some surveys, Minister of Employment and Labor Kim Moon-soo, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, and former Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transport Won Hee-ryong have been mentioned as next candidates within the ruling party.

Opposition: Lee Jae-myung Overwhelmingly Dominant, but...

In the opposition, no visible candidates other than Lee have emerged. However, Speaker of the National Assembly Woo Won-shik, who has shown a stable presence during the recent impeachment turmoil, is gaining attention. Although he is from the Democratic Party, Speaker Woo currently holds no party affiliation and shows 2-6% support within the opposition, forming the second tier. Following him, Reform New Party Assemblyman Lee Jun-seok and former Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum are trailing in support.

However, for Lee, who enjoys overwhelming support, variables include the first trial ruling under the Public Official Election Act, which sentenced him to imprisonment and deprived him of eligibility to run for office for 10 years. If the judiciary proceeds quickly with trials amid the complex presidential election situation including the impeachment trial, there remains a possibility of sudden changes among candidates.

For detailed opinion poll results, please refer to the website of the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission.