Instead of Investigation, Public Opinion Battle by Yoon... First Arrest Threat for a Sitting President (Comprehensive)

Corruption Investigation Office Requests Arrest Warrant for President Yoon... First for a Sitting President
Low Likelihood of Yoon Complying if Warrant Issued... Concerns Over Conflict
Confidence in Rallying Supporters... Will Yoon Launch an External Public Opinion Campaign?

President Yoon Suk-yeol

The High-ranking Officials' Crime Investigation Office (Hugo) has requested an arrest warrant for President Yoon Seok-yeol, drawing attention to the possibility of the first-ever arrest of a sitting president in constitutional history. Even if the warrant is issued, the likelihood of President Yoon complying voluntarily is low, raising concerns about a potential physical confrontation between Hugo and the Presidential Security Service.

The joint investigation headquarters (Joint HQ), composed of Hugo, the police, and the Ministry of National Defense, announced on the 30th, "We have requested an arrest warrant for President Yoon from the Seoul Western District Court at midnight." This is the first time an investigative agency has sought to forcibly secure the custody of a sitting president. Although former Presidents Roh Tae-woo, Chun Doo-hwan, Park Geun-hye, and Lee Myung-bak were indicted and detained, all were after leaving office.

Under the Constitution, a sitting president has immunity from prosecution, so arrest or detention during their term is generally not possible, except in cases of treason or foreign crimes. Article 84 of the Constitution states, "The president shall not be subject to criminal prosecution during their term of office, except in cases of treason or foreign crimes." Currently, President Yoon faces charges of leading a rebellion and abuse of power obstructing the exercise of rights.

Even if the arrest warrant is issued and Hugo attempts to execute it, many analysts believe President Yoon will not comply willingly. Upon learning of the arrest warrant request, President Yoon’s side expressed a negative stance, calling it a "request from an agency without investigative authority." President Yoon has also refused to comply with Hugo’s summons on three occasions, showing a non-responsive stance to the extent of neither explaining his absence nor negotiating a date for appearance.

The court will review the arguments from both sides and decide whether Hugo’s warrant request is appropriate. If the court dismisses or rejects the warrant, it would deal a serious blow to Hugo’s investigation. Conversely, if the warrant is issued, it is expected to cause a major upheaval over the arrest of a sitting president.

Although President Yoon’s duties have been suspended, he remains the sitting president and is staying at the official residence under the protection of the Presidential Security Service. If investigative agencies attempt to execute the arrest warrant, physical clashes could occur if the Security Service does not cooperate. Previously, the Security Service also blocked police execution of search warrants on the presidential office and government offices.

However, the Security Service has no grounds to obstruct the lawful execution of an arrest warrant by investigative agencies. While the Criminal Procedure Act requires the consent of the person in charge for searches of places requiring official or military secrecy?hence the blocking of searches on the presidential office?there is no such provision for arrest warrants. Since there has been no prior attempt to arrest a sitting president, the Security Service is compelled to carefully consider its response strategy.

Meanwhile, after a period of silence following his suspension, President Yoon issued a statement regarding the passenger plane disaster at Muan International Airport the previous day, saying he would "stand with the people." As investigative agencies increase pressure by seeking to forcibly secure President Yoon’s custody, there is analysis that he may also actively engage in a public relations battle through off-site messaging.

On the previous day, President Yoon posted on his social media, expressing "deep sorrow and devastation," and said, "I believe the government will do its best to manage the accident and support the victims." Since his duties have been suspended due to impeachment, he used indirect expressions like "believe" rather than direct orders, but showed his intention to contribute by standing with the people during the crisis.

It is known that President Yoon will continue to issue such messages as needed. There is a possibility of messages related to the New Year or the Constitutional Court’s impeachment trial. Although politically damaged by impeachment during a state of emergency, he has gained confidence and can raise his voice as his support base, including the People Power Party and some conservative groups, have rallied and amplified opposition to the impeachment.

In political circles, there was an interpretation that President Yoon’s recent messages were a prelude to a public relations campaign ahead of the prosecution and police investigations. If President Yoon fully engages in off-site activities, national division could deepen further. His messages could serve as indirect behavioral guidelines for the ruling party or conservative groups. Choi Sang-mok, acting president and Deputy Prime Minister as well as Minister of Strategy and Finance, who must decide on the appointment of constitutional court justices and whether to exercise the right to request reconsideration (veto) of the special prosecutor law, will inevitably pay attention to public opinion.

However, in the legal community, there is also analysis that President Yoon’s refusal to cooperate with investigations and delay tactics regarding impeachment could work against him. Professor Kim Seon-taek of Korea University Law School said, "Since President Yoon is accused of rebellion and his duties have been suspended, he can be arrested and detained. According to Article 84 of the Constitution, immunity does not apply, so the Security Service should cooperate."