Achieving $700 Billion Export Target Next Year Within Sight... "2.6% Increase"

Export Expected to Reach $690 Billion This Year
KOTRA: "Exports to Increase 2.6% Next Year, $700.3 Billion"

The achievement of $700 billion in exports has been postponed to next year. The government initially set this year's export target at $700 billion, but due to a recent slowdown in export growth, the total export amount for this year is expected to remain between $680 billion and $690 billion. It is forecasted that next year's export volume will increase by 2.6% compared to this year.

According to the '2025 Export Outlook and Regional Market Conditions' report published on the 27th by the KOTRA Trade and Investment Research Center, next year's exports are expected to grow by 2.6% compared to this year, driven by strong performance in high value-added industries such as semiconductors and wireless communication devices, as well as promising items like ships, biohealth, power infrastructure, and K-consumer goods. Accordingly, the total export amount for next year is projected to reach $700.3 billion.

The government initially set a goal to achieve $700 billion in exports for the first time this year. However, achieving this target is practically difficult. As of December 20, the cumulative export amount stands at $662.7 billion, leaving $37.3 billion to reach the goal. Looking at export performance during the ten days after December 20 over the past three years, it has been around $20 billion. In 2022, exports from December 20 to 31 amounted to $21.1 billion, and in 2023, $19.7 billion. However, the annual export figure of $632.2 billion from last year has already been surpassed.

The report anticipates that exports to ASEAN, the U.S., and China will continue to lead growth next year, while noting that restrictions due to protectionist trade and commercial policies of major countries remain. In particular, if the new U.S. administration builds trade barriers using tariffs as a weapon, it will affect our exports. According to the regional export outlook classified in the report, exports to China, ASEAN, the Middle East, CIS, and Africa are expected to increase slightly by 3?10%, whereas exports to North America, the EU, Japan, Oceania, India, and Latin America are expected to remain steady.

KOTRA stated in the report, "If detailed inspections of overseas markets by region are conducted and segmented strategies are established, new growth opportunities can be opened even under difficult conditions. Although significant changes in global trade will occur with the inauguration of the new U.S. administration next year, it is even more important to capture arising opportunities and respond swiftly."

By product category, exports of high value-added items related to artificial intelligence (AI), semiconductors, wireless communication devices, ships, biohealth, and K-content-based cosmetics are expected to increase slightly (3?10%). Conversely, traditional key products such as automobiles, steel products, displays, and home appliances are projected to decrease slightly (0?10%). The report forecasts, "Traditional key industries outside of advanced industries and IT items will be affected by intensified competition centered on China and a decline in global demand."

For the U.S., exports of semiconductors, ships, biohealth, and cosmetics are expected to increase, supported by continuous technological innovation and rising demand for high value-added innovative products. Although China faces downside risks such as sluggish domestic demand and increased tariffs on exports to the U.S., the report sees export growth potential due to the Chinese government's active economic stimulus measures and expansion of investment in advanced industries. Our exports to China are expected to increase slightly, focusing on smart manufacturing, biohealth, and shipbuilding equipment. Europe is expected to see steady expansion in import demand as the economy improves slightly. In particular, pharmaceutical exports are anticipated to increase due to the expansion of supply and contract manufacturing by our biohealth companies.

ASEAN and India, showing high economic growth rates, are expected to create new export opportunities based on digitalization expansion, active government industrial policies, and infrastructure projects. KOTRA expects that our companies will be able to increase market share in these regions based on quality competitiveness. Especially, demand for semiconductors, wireless communication devices, automobiles, computers, biohealth, and cosmetics is continuously increasing in the ASEAN and India regions.

Lee Ji-hyung, head of KOTRA's Economic and Trade Cooperation Headquarters, emphasized, "In 2025, the Korean economy will face various risk factors such as global supply chain restructuring, the spread of protectionism, and geopolitical conflicts, but it is time to focus on creating new opportunities to turn crises into chances for advancement."