Yoon's Second Day of Destiny... More Than 8 'Ruling Party Defectors' Expected

Second Vote on Presidential Impeachment Bill... At Least 7 Defectors
More 'Yes' Votes Than First Round... Possibility of Exceeding 8
Post-Impeachment Situation for Gukhim a Bigger Issue... Concerns Over Division
Immediate Suspension of Yoon's Duties Upon Approval... Constitutional Court Begins Deliberation

As the vote on the second impeachment motion against President Yoon Suk-yeol approaches, analysis suggests that more than eight members of the People Power Party have expressed support for impeachment, either publicly or privately. For the impeachment motion to pass, at least two-thirds of the total members, or more than 200 votes, are required. This means that at least eight defections from the People Power Party are necessary.

On the 14th, the National Assembly will hold a plenary session at 4 p.m. to vote on the second impeachment motion against President Yoon. The first impeachment motion, held on the 7th, was dismissed due to the absence of People Power Party members.

On the morning of the 13th, a day before the second impeachment vote of President Yoon Suk-yeol, the main building of the National Assembly Speaker's Office in Yeouido, Seoul, was shrouded in silence as Korea's crisis stood at a crossroads. Photo by Jo Yong-jun

The second impeachment motion, initiated by 191 members including the six opposition parties such as the Democratic Party and independents, was reported to the plenary session the previous afternoon. In addition to the grounds cited in the first impeachment motion, such as the violation of the constitution and laws including the principles of popular sovereignty and separation of powers through the declaration of martial law, the second motion also includes charges that under the president’s command, martial law troops and police attempted to arrest members of the National Assembly.

The approval requirement is 'two-thirds or more of the total members.' With 300 total members, 200 votes in favor are needed. If all 192 opposition members attend and vote in favor, at least eight defections from the 108 People Power Party members are required. During the first impeachment vote, only three members?Ahn Cheol-soo, Kim Ye-ji, and Kim Sang-wook?participated, but the situation is different this time. So far, additional ruling party members who have publicly supported impeachment include Cho Kyung-tae, Kim Jae-seop, Jin Jong-oh, and Han Ji-a.

It is also expected that some ruling party members will vote in favor without publicly declaring their stance. Kwon Seong-dong, the new floor leader of the People Power Party, plans to discuss participation in the impeachment vote at a party meeting this morning, but it is difficult to prevent defections. Kim Jong-hyuk, a Supreme Council member considered close to the pro-Yoon faction, appeared on a radio show and pointed out, "Since the president himself said he would undergo impeachment judgment, it is logically inconsistent for the party to try to block it." He added, "Members participating in the vote may feel considerably less burdened," and predicted that the second impeachment motion "has a very high chance of passing."

There is also analysis that the internal situation within the People Power Party after the impeachment vote will attract more attention. A ruling party official said, "The factional conflicts revealed during the impeachment crisis will spread more seriously after the vote," and warned, "It could reach the level of a party split similar to the Park Geun-hye impeachment."

If the impeachment motion passes on this day, President Yoon, who is the head of diplomacy, defense, and administration, will be immediately suspended from his duties. Subsequently, the system will shift to Prime Minister Han Duck-soo acting as president, and the Constitutional Court will promptly begin a review process that can last up to 180 days.

Yonhap News