Ukraine "Rejects Alternatives to NATO Membership"
Concerns Over Suspension of Arms Support After Trump Took Office
On July in Washington DC, U.S. President Joe Biden (right) and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (left) shake hands before their summit meeting. Photo by UPI·Yonhap News
As ceasefire negotiations begin between the incoming U.S. President Donald Trump’s team and the Ukrainian government, disagreements are emerging over Ukraine’s accession to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Ukraine is demanding NATO membership in exchange for abandoning the recovery of its territories occupied by Russia, while Russia is pressuring that it will escalate the conflict if Ukraine joins NATO.
With neither Ukraine nor Russia willing to compromise on the NATO membership issue, significant difficulties are expected in the U.S.-led mediation efforts. It is widely believed that it is practically impossible for President-elect Trump to fulfill his pledge to achieve a ceasefire before taking office. Furthermore, with the possibility that the U.S. might completely halt arms support to Ukraine after the second Trump administration takes office, the security outlook for Eastern Europe, centered on Ukraine, is becoming increasingly unpredictable.
Ukrainian Presidential Chief of Staff Begins Negotiations with Trump’s Envoy
Andriy Yermak, Chief of Staff to the President of Ukraine, recently visited the United States and met with Susie Wiles, President-elect Trump’s designated White House Chief of Staff, to discuss ceasefire negotiations. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported, citing Trump campaign officials, that Yermak is also expected to meet with key figures in the incoming Trump administration, including Keith Kellogg, the designated special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, and Mike Waltz, the designated White House National Security Advisor, to continue ceasefire talks.
Earlier, Ukraine shifted its stance by expressing willingness to engage in ceasefire negotiations even if it had to forgo reclaiming its territories. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated in an interview with the UK’s Sky News on the 29th of last month, "A ceasefire is necessary to ensure that Putin does not seize more Ukrainian territory," adding, "Even the Ukrainian territories we control should quickly be placed under NATO’s umbrella. The regions occupied by Russia can be recovered through diplomatic means."
European countries are also encouraging ceasefire talks by pledging to deploy peacekeeping forces to Ukraine after a ceasefire is achieved. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock stated at a NATO foreign ministers’ meeting in Brussels, Belgium, "If a ceasefire in the Ukraine war is achieved, we do not rule out deploying peacekeeping forces to Ukraine." The UK and French governments are also reportedly considering dispatching peacekeeping troops.
Conflict Deepens Over Ukraine’s NATO Membership… Trump Pressures to Halt Arms Support
However, significant differences between the Trump camp and the Ukrainian government over Ukraine’s NATO membership mean that it will likely take a long time to reach a ceasefire agreement. Ukraine is demanding unconditional NATO membership as a condition for ceasefire negotiations, but the U.S. and Western countries are opposed to Ukraine joining NATO, which could provoke Russia significantly.
On the 3rd, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Syvokho sent a letter to the 32 NATO member countries, urging them to "issue an invitation for Ukraine’s NATO membership," emphasizing, "Ukraine will not accept any security guarantees, alternatives, substitutes, or replacements other than NATO membership."
However, the Trump camp holds a very negative stance on Ukraine’s NATO membership. Instead, there is a strategy to drastically reduce or cut arms support to Ukraine to pressure it into accepting a ceasefire deal.
Designated special envoy Kellogg said in an interview with Fox News, "The more arms support the Biden administration provides to Ukraine before the government transition, the greater the opportunity for President-elect Trump to do what he wants," adding, "All these activities will serve as leverage in negotiations, and President-elect Trump is aware of that. He will use it as a negotiating advantage."
Other NATO member countries in Europe also view Ukraine’s NATO membership as unlikely. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis recently said at a press conference, "There has been no progress on Ukraine’s NATO membership issue." Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsk? also expressed a negative view, stating, "I do not think there will be consensus among NATO members to issue an invitation for Ukraine’s NATO membership."
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