Train to 'Impeachment' Departs, What Is the Future Political Outlook?

① Opposition Firm on Impeachment if Resignation Refused
② President Yoon's Martial Law May Constitute 'Treason'
③ Six-Judge Constitutional Court System Adds Uncertainty

President Yoon Suk-yeol declared martial law, but it was lifted after six hours following a resolution by the National Assembly. The situation escalated into a crisis as martial law troops entered the main building of the National Assembly, shaking the constitutional order, and the opposition parties have now fully demanded President Yoon's resignation. The political situation has been caught in a massive storm.

On the 4th, President Yoon remained silent amid the National Assembly's adoption of the resolution to lift martial law and the flood of demands for its repeal, but around 4:30 a.m., he lifted the martial law, narrowly avoiding a constitutional crisis. However, as President Yoon's 'gamble' was blocked by the National Assembly, mainly led by the opposition parties, the political situation has faced an unpredictable future.

In the early morning of the 4th, opposition party lawmakers stayed overnight in the plenary hall after a resolution demanding the lifting of martial law was passed at the National Assembly. President Yoon Seok-yeol declared martial law in an emergency statement on the night of the 3rd. Photo by Kim Hyun-min

The opposition parties have already planned to initiate 'impeachment' if President Yoon does not voluntarily resign. If the opposition rushes, a vote on the presidential impeachment bill could take place within this week. The ruling party is considering measures to prevent the worst-case scenario of the president's resignation, but it is insufficient to calm the angry public sentiment.

In the political circles, President Yoon's declaration of martial law is already being judged as 'rebellion.' Cho Kuk, leader of the Innovation Party and a legal scholar, stated, "Martial law itself was illegal from the start and a military rebellion," adding, "President Yoon should be investigated and punished simply for announcing martial law," and "All conditions for impeachment have been met."

Despite the opposition holding 192 seats, close to the required quorum for impeachment approval, the opposition hesitated to proceed with impeachment not only because they were short of 8 seats but also due to the lack of 'serious illegal' grounds. The opposition now evaluates that President Yoon has filled the last blank for impeachment through this martial law declaration.

The other slight obstacle of '8 seats' for impeachment has also changed. During the voting process for the resolution to lift martial law, 18 lawmakers from the People Power Party voted in favor. Although known as pro-Yoon factions, many ruling party lawmakers who intended to vote in favor could not participate due to various confusions. Considering these wavering members, the possibility of securing the quorum for impeachment approval has increased.

However, problems remain even if the impeachment process proceeds. Currently, the Constitutional Court operates with six justices. After the retirement of three justices appointed by the National Assembly, the three seats remain vacant due to negotiations between the ruling and opposition parties. According to the Constitutional Court Act, a case must be heard with at least seven justices present, and at least six must agree to decide on unconstitutionality, impeachment, or constitutional complaints. However, with only six justices, the Constitutional Court could be paralyzed, so it has temporarily suspended the relevant provision as a last resort.

Even if presidential impeachment proceeds, it is questionable whether impeachment can be carried out under the current six-justice system. Even if the ruling and opposition parties resolve the issue of Constitutional Court justices, the procedures such as confirmation hearings and appointments are expected to take considerable time.

Meanwhile, the vote on the impeachment motions against Choi Jae-ha, head of the Board of Audit and Inspection, and Lee Chang-soo, chief prosecutor of the Seoul Central District Prosecutors' Office, which was scheduled to be processed at the plenary session at 2 p.m. that day, is expected to be postponed. The opposition plans to focus its efforts on President Yoon's resignation as the political situation changes.