Ukraine Arms Support in a Dilemma [Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club]

Special Envoy Team Holds Talks with Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun Following President Yoon
Possibility of Weapon Requests... Trump Administration Remains the Biggest Variable

The government appears to have effectively shifted to a position of being unable to support Ukraine with weapons. Initially, it considered a phased response following North Korea's troop deployment, but the dilemma over weapon support grew larger ahead of the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump.

Yonhap News

On the 28th, a Ukrainian special envoy delegation led by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov visited Korea and paid a courtesy call on President Yoon Suk-yeol at the Yongsan Presidential Office in Seoul the previous day. They then continued talks with Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun at the Ministry of National Defense building in Yongsan. It is reported that the special envoy explained the situation regarding North Korean troop deployment and requested weapon support during the meeting.

The government is withholding details on what specific weapons the special envoy requested. This stance differs somewhat from the position the government took a month ago when the North Korean troop deployment issue suddenly emerged. On the 22nd of last month, Kim Tae-hyo, the First Deputy Director of the National Security Office, stated, "We will implement phased response measures depending on the progress of North Korea-Russia military cooperation." Two days later, President Yoon also emphasized, "We can flexibly consider the fundamental principle of not directly supporting lethal weapons depending on North Korean military activities."

Previously, the Ministry of National Defense reportedly submitted a report to the Presidential Office detailing the status and inventory of weapons that could be supported to Ukraine. If Ukraine requested air defense weapons, it is highly likely they mentioned the retired Hawk missiles following the introduction of the new Cheongung missiles. Hawk missiles can intercept aircraft and cruise missiles. 155mm artillery shells are also under consideration. Earlier, the government indirectly supported Ukraine by exporting and lending 600,000 rounds of 155mm artillery shells to Ukraine via the United States last year.

The variable is the United States. The situation changed as President-elect Donald Trump, who will take office in January next year, emphasized an early end to the Ukraine war. Already, individuals associated with President-elect Trump have expressed concerns about South Korea’s weapon support to Ukraine. Relations with Russia are also becoming complicated. Russia may consider the defensive weapons supported by our government as "lethal weapons" aimed at its own military and could take diplomatic retaliatory measures. In such a case, the government may negatively change its stance on weapon support to Ukraine by prioritizing its North Korea policy.

A government official said, "Since the government is considering dispatching a special envoy to Ukraine, it is highly likely that weapon support will be discussed after assessing the local situation," adding, "There has not been any full-scale discussion regarding whether to provide support."