The Outcome Depends on Pennsylvania... The Formula for Winning the US Presidential Election

[US Election 2024]
Harris, Blue Wall... Trump, Sun Belt + Pennsylvania
Will 'Republican Support' in Iowa and White Women Become a Last-Minute Factor?
84 Million Early Votes Could Create a 'Red Mirage'

The outcome of this U.S. presidential election will be decided in seven battleground states. In particular, the Pennsylvania vote, which carries the largest number of electoral votes (19) among the battleground states, will be decisive.

However, there is a possibility of a ‘Black swan’ event?an unprecedented occurrence that no one predicted?as well as the emergence of hidden votes that polls have failed to capture. Some also speculate that a ‘Red mirage’ phenomenon, similar to the 2020 election, could occur, making it difficult to draw conclusions prematurely.

The U.S. presidential election is won not by the total popular vote but by the candidate who first secures a majority of the electoral votes, known as the ‘magic number 270.’ If there are no surprises in the 43 states where the vote is already leaning strongly to one side, results similar to the 2020 election would give Vice President Kamala Harris 226 electoral votes and former President Trump 219. The remaining 93 electoral votes from the seven battleground states will determine the winner. The key to victory is capturing the Pennsylvania vote. It has the largest number of electoral votes among the seven battleground states and remains a neck-and-neck race until the end. According to a poll released on the 3rd by The New York Times (NYT) and Siena College, the support rates for the two candidates in Pennsylvania were tied at 48% each.

Former U.S. President and presidential candidate Donald Trump (left) and Vice President Kamala Harris [Image source=AFP Yonhap News]

Vice President Harris’s most likely winning scenario is to win all three states known as the ‘Blue Wall’?Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin?where Democratic support has historically been strong, securing 44 electoral votes. Former President Trump holds an advantage in three of the four ‘Sun Belt’ states with high sunlight exposure?Georgia (16 votes), North Carolina (16 votes), and Arizona (11 votes)?excluding Nevada (6 votes). If he also wins Pennsylvania, he would surpass 270 electoral votes.

A ‘Black swan’ event could also occur. In Iowa (6 electoral votes), a Republican stronghold that voted for Trump in both the 2016 and 2020 elections, a recent poll shows Vice President Harris leading. According to a survey conducted by the Des Moines Register and others from October 28 to 31, Harris’s support in Iowa was 47%, slightly ahead of Trump’s 44% within the margin of error (±3.4 percentage points). If Harris wins Iowa, the race would shift in her favor.

Another variable is the hidden vote?‘Hidden Harris’ and ‘Shy Trump.’ White women, who make up about 30% of the U.S. population, tend to be moderate conservatives. In the 2016 election, 47% voted for Trump, and in 2020, 53% did. However, this election, with women’s reproductive rights emerging as a major issue and Trump’s camp repeatedly making misogynistic remarks, there is analysis suggesting these voters may have changed their minds. There is also a possibility that hidden Trump supporters, who were underestimated in the 2016 and 2020 elections, could reappear.

However, it is difficult to predict the outcome until the very end. A ‘Red mirage’ phenomenon, like in the last election, could occur. According to AP and The Washington Post (WP), about 84 million people participated in early voting, including mail-in ballots. Although this number is lower than in 2020, it could significantly affect the vote count. In 2020, in battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, Trump led early in the counting, but as mail-in ballots were tallied, the result flipped to a victory for President Joe Biden. Younger Democratic voters prefer convenient mail-in voting, but mail ballots take longer to count because envelopes must be opened and signatures verified. Also, exit polls conducted on-site do not reflect mail-in votes.